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CobaltBlue
So I might've heard mention of this before, but in watching TV this week, I observed two situations where Doyle found himself on the river with a very strong hand. He took quite a long time to bet in each instance and each time the other person folded. It made me start thinking about bet timing on the final street. Jamie Gold was actually involved in both hands. In one case, he considered raising with air. In the other, he considered calling second pair.

In thinking back over other observed hands, it seems quite rare for an opponent to take a long time on the river and then put out a bluff. I think it's largely a factor of "believability". Has anyone else picked up on this? Or does anyone think this could possibly be reversed around?
trystero
Are one of the hands when Doyle had a set? There I think he was actually uncomfortable. There were four other players in the pot and the board had a few straights out - he probably knew that he'd have a lot of trouble calling a raise, and that the players yet to act were definitely capable of making moves. Especially Gold, who seemed to have a thing for outplaying Doyle. I think he was wondering if it'd be best to c/c to try to induce a bluff from busted draws or to (as he did) bet his hand for value.

Like all tells it depends on your opponent. When I play live I take a while to consider my moves, bluffing or not. I guess it depends on how quickly you can put your opponent on a hand or range and react. On topic, two weeks ago at my home game I was called on the river by top pair, no less, when I had the nut flush because I took a while to bet. Villain said I genuinely looked uncomfortable. What I was doing was trying to put him on a hand and figure out what size bet he'd call. I didn't even consider that my delay would influence his decision.

But if I were to generalize I'd say that you're right: players who delay betting the river aren't bluffing because they're doing a kind of reverse-tell. It's a form of feigning weakness.
Abbaddabba
Long pauses are almost always value bets in my experience.

I notice that of other players, and i notice that of myself.

It's unintentional for me. It's usually because im considering making a thin value bet or if im out of position, considering check/raising. If i have a hand that i want to bluff the river with i know before hand.
PokerGod86
QUOTE (CobaltBlue @ Friday, January 19th, 2007, 10:28 AM) *
Or does anyone think this could possibly be reversed around?


In poker, ANYTHING could be reversed. Anyone could pretend they have a hand and have nothing, and anyone could pretend they have nothing and just limp in with the best hand in the game. Anything is possible, I am like Indiana Jones, if you guys have seen those movies.. I make things up as I go.
CobaltBlue
QUOTE (trystero @ Friday, January 19th, 2007, 10:08 AM) *
Are one of the hands when Doyle had a set?

Yeah, the first example was Doyle betting a set on a safe-ish board on the river on HSP. He took a long time to bet...and I think Gold's "radar" picked up on that as weakness and was considering bluff-raising with air. Then on Poker After Dark, Doyle had the nuts (JT on a AKxQx board) on the river and bet. Gold was considering calling him down with KJ.

Basically, taking a long time seems to "look" weak to opponents cause it's "indecisive"...but I'm failing to recall a case where it hasn't been quite a bit of strength.

QUOTE (Abbaddabba @ Friday, January 19th, 2007, 10:17 AM) *
If i have a hand that i want to bluff the river with i know before hand.

Right...and I think that's interesting...because if we know this ahead of time and we're up against a player that knows this (that delays are usually value bets)...is there any point to trying to pause a long time on the river before a bluff?
iggymcfly
It really differs depending on the game.

In NLHE tournaments for instance, I notice that a real hand usually hesitates longer on the flop than a simple C-bet because they're trying to figure out what bet size protects their hand while still possibly drawing a call whereas a C-bet is trying to bet decisively to take the pot down. I don't have any river-specific tells for NLHE tournies, but that's because most hands don't make it that far.

In PLO, I think the same general principle applies on the river for a long pause (probably a real hand deciding how much value they can get), but an almost immediate pot-sized bet is usually the nuts trying to represent a bluff and get maximum value. It's the in-between pause that's most likely to be a bluff.

In LHE, it's different again. There's usually a general rhythym where there's a slight pause followed by a bet. Betting with this pause is usually the only tempo that people will fold the river to. If you bet immediately, they'll call, (even though the immediate bet's usually not a bluff). A long pause in LHE usually means a borderline value-bet where they were considering checking before deciding to bet. The most likely bluffing tempo is probably a slightly longer pause then usual where they were considering checking, and then decided to quickly bet before "giving anything away".

These are all online tells though. Most of the live tells I pick up deal more with body language or how people put their chips in the pot. Offhand, I can't think of a time where someone hesitated a real long time before betting the river, although a thin value-bet would be my most likely guess in that situation.
Abbaddabba
QUOTE
Right...and I think that's interesting...because if we know this ahead of time and we're up against a player that knows this (that delays are usually value bets)...is there any point to trying to pause a long time on the river before a bluff?


Maybe, but most good players are both playing multiple tables themselves and realize that you're playing multiple tables.
So you cant read into their pauses too much and they wont put too much stock into your pauses for the same reason.


It's more critical with poor players who seldom pay attention to things like this.
CobaltBlue
QUOTE (Abbaddabba @ Saturday, January 20th, 2007, 4:39 PM) *
Maybe, but most good players are both playing multiple tables themselves and realize that you're playing multiple tables.
So you cant read into their pauses too much and they wont put too much stock into your pauses for the same reason.

I realize that we're both primarily online players, but I was actually more speaking to live play. =)
ramenandeggs
i thought this action is mainly a value bet thing when you're trying to figure out how much you can bet that the opponent will call with lesser holdings.
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