Bodog 20/40 LHE (7-handed)

Cobalt is CO w/ K J . No particular read on SB, but I've been hitting and showing down a lot of monsters that I've hit being semi-LAG.

Pre-flop:
3 folds, Cobalt raises, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold

Flop (5 SB): J T 4 (2 players)
SB bets, Cobalt raises, SB calls

Turn (4.5 BB): J (2 players)
SB checks, Cobalt bets, SB raises, Cobalt 3-bets, SB caps, Cobalt calls

River (12.5 BB): 5 (2 players)
SB bets, Cobalt calls

Final Pot: 14.5 BB

IMO, he never donks 2 pair or better on that flop. However, he does donk a hand like top pair weak/no kicker. Combined with your lag image, he can easily have a weak J on the river. Therefore, I think the river is a raise/call.

Ditto.

I get scared a lot and just call this river...

I do see players donking strong hands there, although most of them 3-bet the flop.

I'm more worried about AJ than anything, but I guess it less likely than Jx?

How sure are we this is a raise/call river?

The rest is 100% fine though.

IPITS, for 2 reasons.

1) Level 1- What does he have? How many players are playing Jx (where x<T) for a raise out of the SB? Not many. It's possible villain has QJ, but I'd figure AJ is more likely.

2) Level 2 - What does he think we have? Our turn 3-bet anounces pretty clearly that we have a J. So, if villain has any sense, he can safely put us on at least a J (presumably at least J9). So, unless villain is a moron, he should not be capping without at least KJ. I'm calling down on the premise that he might be a moron, but I'm not putting in any more raises.

that's how i'd play it.

i'm not worried about TT or AJ, as your open raise from the CO would have been repopped by either or these holdings, no?

it's either 44, JT, or a worse jack, and i play a set/two pair like this a lot of times OOP vs preflop agression.

the river call is fine.

What Jack can we put Villain on?
AJ beats us
KJ ties
JT beats us
Only QJ is good for us.



What "weak J" can he have that he called with from the sb?
J9 or less seems unlikely.

Villain has shown strength 3 times post flop against us, even though we raised preflop.
If we raise the river, we lose more when we're wrong than we gain when we're right.
These things combined make me call this river.

It seems that everyone else on here is becoming more aggressive than me


--CM

I aint messing with corans analysis, very good as usual. I was over estimating him having a "weak" J here. Calling river is better.

MrNiceGuy and Coran provided spot-on analysis. There's really very little value in raising this river (unless I can somehow pull a raise/fold line). There are still a number of hands that we can beat, but after he caps the turn, there are a plethora that we're behind. For the sake of results, villain had AJ here (which is right about where I put him by the river).

TT yes, no way AJ repops. I don't see that happening too often even against a "lagtard."

Yeah, AJ seems to be one of the hands that people are quite happy to cold-call with.

I repop it. Doesn't mean the donks do.

Usually they just like to call with it.

Well, that depends. I def repop with AJo, even ATo, but you are right in that alot of people just cold call with it.

Raising the river's terrible here. Occasionally, we'll be lucky enough to be against a weak jack, but most of the time this is JT or 44. If we didn't have outs against most full houses, I think folding to the turn cap would be better than raise/calling the river. Usually the flop donk means either "I hit big and want to get extra bets" or "I hit something but I'm too weak to C/R". There's no way in hell that villian caps the turn with just a ten, so I think most of the time we're against a boat here.

Also, I totally disagree that AJ doesn't repop often here. Unless we have a read that villian's playing exceptionally tight-passsive, I think AJ repops >80% of the time here. That's the weakest hand that's consistent with the turn action, but it's a really strange way to play PF and on the flop. I think the range of hands here is:

44: 35%
JT: 30%
weak jack: 25%
AJ: 3%
J4: 3%
KJ: 2%
TT: 1%
AA: 1%