25 left...18 paid. Pay for 10-18 is crappy though. MP2 has 10K. I have 8.5K in the BB. Blinds are 300/600/50, so my M is 9 or so. Villain has been active, but not way out of line. Raising once or twice per orbit from middle or late position. Most pots are being won preflop by a first raise.

Preflop: Folds to MP2. MP2 makes it 1500. Folds to hero in the BB. Hero???

Firstly, even if you reraise small preflop you can't fold to a shove.

That said, I don't mind shoving there.
I also don't mind calling and looking at a flop. Possibly opting for a c/r allin on a low flop.

If you were in position I think I would prefer calling. Given you are OOP I like a shove, but I think its close.

I like the shove here - villain could be stealing and you get maximum FE plus it puts the thought into the other player's mind that you're willing to defend your blinds.

Also, you're OOP for the rest of the hand and it's likely that at least one overcard will flop which makes the hand tougher to play.

I agree..I think 10s are a bit too strong, yet vulnerable to take a flop OOP here..He could have something like QJ, in which case he will fold (or should) to a shove, whereas if he caught a piece of the flop, then chances are you are getting it all in, and WB

Does anyone see stop-and-go as an option here?

If he notices the table is as tight as you have, I think a push is better than a stop and go, you want to get them all in with a high pair if he could be as weak as A9 or A8. there probably isnt much difference between the two though, since he could have AJ+, and then you wouldnt mind some fold equity.

More importantly your M is only 6.3, not around 9.

This is my opinion. I say a stop & go on any J high flop or lower, or a smaller bet, to induce a bluff by possibly AK-AQ if he gets out of line. A pot sized flop bet ?

Okay, so the consensus is push here. I opted for the stop and go. Flat called and the flop came AJJ. Do you follow through with the push on that board, or scrap the plan and check?

This is a disaster flop. I think here it comes down to his preflop range. Most likely a play gone bad, %90 check-fold.

If youre asking the question you didnt really opt for a stop and go, if you did youre pushing any flop.

In fact this isnt a terrible flop for a stop and go because you probably only have strong Aces or a J to worry about. Weak Aces now dont have winning outs with their kicker, and have to fear your stronger Ace. Kings and Queens have to fear you having an A, and straight draws are priced out all the way to the river only getting about 3:2 odds.

Remember, your objective in a stop and go is solely to pick up fold equity...otherwise you would have committed it all pre-flop anyway. You WANT a scary board with a stop and go.

I don't like a stop and go here per se. Calling preflop and reevaluating the flop is ok. You aren't committing yourself to this hand by calling preflop. You have enough chips to check/fold a bad flop.

The only better hands that fold are going to be KK and QQ. If you intend on getting your money in here, checkraising is far, far better than pushing. The only danger would be him checking KQ and hitting on the turn, but that risk is very small.

I would expect him to call a shove here about 2/3 of the time (rough estimate), so I check/fold.

would you check/fold to JJK or JJQ flops? Your M is 5.2 if you fold.

Exactly, and I think this makes it a push pf. At this stage in a 180, you need to be looking for confrontations, and TT is a pretty good hand to go to battle with against a medium-large stack.

No, I would be far more likely to shove a JJK or JJQ flop.

Against a player raising 20% of hands we are roughly 45% on a JJK or JJQ flop, whereas we are 35% on the JJA flop. These are very rough estimates but they are accurate enough to highlight the difference.



*Thinking whilst typing* I'm unsure actually of whether (if we know villain will c/bet every time) we make more by c/ring any flop vs shoving that same flop. With a hand like 55 we could get 66-TT to fold on a bad flop. With TT, we are rarely going to get folds out of better hands, and we will more often get correct folds from hands that have missed the flop.

But there are twice as many JJKs and JJQs. Even weighting toward Aces being played more, you have a long way to go before pushing JJA is less profitable than pushing Ks and Qs. (just not to lose track of it, I still like a preflop push better than a stop and go, but this is not a bad flop for a stop and go).

But there are twice as many JJKs and JJQs.

What does that matter?

Because they are certainly in his range, even if you discount them compared to Aces, and you have signficant FE against them.

Yes, but pushing a KJJ flop is more profitable than pushing an AJJ flop. It doesn't matter how often they appear as each situation is independent.

Huh? I must be misunderstanding you.

Either they are in his range or they arent. Your EV is dependent on his (weighted) range, thats what structure hand analysis is all about.

I think I must be misunderstanding you as well.

What do you mean by a KJJ flop is 'in his range'?


I was simply saying that encountering a KJJ or QJJ flop and shoving is more profitable than shoving on an AJJ flop. Shoving on a JJJ flop is even more profitable.
I believe shoving an AJJ flop is -EV, but shoving a KJJ flop is +EV. An aggressive villain will raise with far more hands that hit AJJ than hit KJJ.

It doesn't matter that the KJJ flop will appear more often.

I think the disconnect is I am talking about the preflop decision to stop and go vs. push, which includes the frequency of AJJ, KJJ and QJJ flops and villains reaction to them given different holdings, while you are talking about a post flop decision depending on which of those has flopped.