Zach6668
Tuesday, January 16th, 2007, 1:20 AM
QUOTE (Head_Trauma @ Tuesday, January 16th, 2007, 3:41 AM)

I don't think this is an 'easy raise' at all. That would just be ABC poker and would probably not maximize value on this hand. Given your read on both opponents, calling seems like the superior play. SB is almost certainly on a two outer with 99-KK like you said. He will definitely fold to a raise, but might call behind if you call given that he knows BB is often bluffing. He might assume you would raise with an ace and therefore think his pair is good.
Raising will usually win the pot right away, and push out the BB's possible gut shot straight draw. This is all that we are really worried about IMO. But calling is +EV because he will probably bluff again at the river. The best play is to wait till the river to pop it (except maybe if a 5 or 7 comes because he probably won't call your raise with a weaker hand).
SB is a 40/20 (as per the MSN convo with aim786).
His range is MUCH more than 99-KK. He could have 55, 77, all of which have 6 outs, he could even have A6, A4 (slowplaying), AK (again, even a more retarded slowplay), etc.
Furthermore, BB could have a SEMIBLUFF or any number of hands that are calling raises. Just because we figure to be ahead of him, doesn't mean he won't call a raise, I mean, he could think you're an aggrodonkey like he is. If we raise the turn, he calls with a ton of hands, and furthermore, he may STILL pay off the river. Maybe when he bluffs turn and gets two callers, he c/f's river.
Back to SB. Maybe he's planning on folding 99-KK for one bet anyways, given that two different people have shown an interest in their hand. Or, conversely, maybe he is too stubborn, and will call down with KK, QQ, or he thinks we are making an isolation play on the donkey with less than KK, and calls us down anyways.
I really don't think this is close.
I'm not giving up the chance to protect my hand here, and the possibility of gaining more bets.
- Zach