PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

BB (t6185)
Hero (t16051)
UTG+1 (t2805)
MP1 (t8280)
MP2 (t4440)
MP3 (t3755)
CO (t2310)
Button (t4720)
SB (t4530)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J , A .
Hero raises to t600, 2 folds, MP2 raises to t1000, 5 folds, Hero calls t400.

Fold to the min-reraise preflop?

Flop: (t2175) Q , Q , J (2 players)
Hero ??????


How do you proceed here?
I figure I'm either WA/WB... How do you play it to figure out which one? Lead out and fold to a reraise, lead out and (if called)check/fold turn fearing he has AQ, AA, KK or JJ???

I dont think youve hit this hard enough to continue but.... if you check the flop and he c bets you could repop cause most players arent going to c bet a flopped set or full house. But would this player fold anything we cant beat? probably not. Better to just check fold unless you flop huge

this isnt a wa/wb situation because there is a straight draw possible. You have to lead here to see where you stand. Folding or calling depends on the size of the raise.

I agree with this, and the call pf is certainly fine with your stack.

I don't see how leading out doesn't price us into the hand here. Villian only has $3400 left after the flop. I may be in the minority here but with your stack I push.

anyone ever just fold this hand UTG?

He's not priced in yet. If he calls he will be, but he isnt likely to do that on a bluff if you lead 1k. if he has a hand and pushes back you can get out.

With an M of about 50?

not with this chipstack

Early in a tourney with small blinds I will fold AJ and AT (unsuited). They can get in to much trouble OOP to justify the risk. At this point in the tourney, with stacks all over the place, I think they become more playable, especially with a bully stack. This hand is a good example. You arent going to get in a whole lot of trouble with it, because if villain plays back you can comfortably retreat after a reasonable (10%) investment.

Betting less than half the pot will open up for villian to push back with say TT. If we make a bet of say 1.6K we are committed IMO and are calling a push getting 3.5 to 1 ish

I dont see TT calling for another 1k with that flop, but if the table has players that are that loose then Im even more willing to make the bet because I win their remaining stack at least 75% of the time.

2/3 of villains should have a worse hand here. If I bet and half are willing to play it out for all of their chips and half fold, my EV for betting against them is .5*( 2200+.75*5600) = 3200 * .6667 = 2150. Even if I never win the 1/3 of the time I'm behind, thats a loss of 1133. Certainly a profitable situation.