Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Super HERO is BB with Q K
3 folds, SB raises, Super HERO 3-bets, SB caps, Super HERO calls.

Flop: 8 Q 6 (8SB, 2 players)
SB bets, Super HERO raises, SB calls.

Turn: 9 (6BB, 2 players)
SB checks, Super HERO bets, SB calls.

River: A (8BB, 2 players)
SB checks, Super HERO ??

Can we value bet this or assume he has an Ace?

The ace he's most likely to have on this river popped out. I think it's a bet and expect to be called by KK/KQ/JJ/TT.

Yeah, I bet.

A ton of players will lead this card when they hit.

He almost never has the flush here, and I think he has 88-JJ, QJs, KQ, etc enough to warrant a bet.

Does anyone fold to a c/r?

My default is call, since I'm a showdown monkey, but it would have to be a pretty elaborate bluff for him to be pulling...

I almost never say this, and think it's used improperly all the time, but... bet if you can fold to a raise. You're up against QQ/JJ just a little bit more than you're up against AK/AJ here so the value you're getting from betting is pretty slim. It's still worth betting, but only if you refuse to pay off a check/raise. One thing I've learned is that when people get fancy (except for absolute donks), they usually do it on the flop and turn. The river C/R bluff is such a rare animal that it's really not worth worrying about.

Yup...this would definitely be bet/fold if you're going to bet it.

We can assume that hes going to c/r on the river if he has the ace because OP has been betting out each street. Or he could just have a JJ/TT.

I hate betting this river. A ton of hands that were behind to us just got there. I check behind and pray to God he's got something like two Jacks.

*edit* after reading replies, I just want to mention that the only way I think this river can be bet is if we're willing to fold to a check/raise. I have a very hard time folding to check/raises on the river, so I check behind here.

That doesn't make it right...

We gain a bet when we're ahead by betting this and having villain call. We lose a bet when we're behind by bet/folding. If we're ahead and he's going to call more than 50% of the time and he never bluffs bet/folding is clearly correct. However, if we bet/call, we lose 2 bets when we're behind and win one bet when we're ahead. We have to be good here more than 67% of the time to bet/call. Bottom line, if we're incapable of bet/folding then checking behind is better. Do we lose value? Probably, but if we're not going to fold to a raise, I think we lose more value betting here than checking.

All of which of course, simply means that I need to get over my bet/folding phobia and be willing to do it every now and then.

The 67% criteria requires three things (in addition to calling the c/r).
1) That he ALWAYS checkraises better hands,
2) That he ONLY checkraises better hands,
3) That he ALWAYS calls with worse hands.

If you're calling a river check/raise, 2 cannot be true.
The other two are obviously not true and anyone could come up with examples why.

I keep pretty strong notes on my opponents.
And with the proper read, I love value betting this river.
Against an unknown, I likely check the river down to this scare card.

This may just be in my imagination.
But as I am sorting through my notes on this opponent before making my river decision, my shot clock usually runs pretty low.
And it seems that Villains sometimes view this "indecision" as weakness and bluff check-raise the river much more often than normally.
This makes calling the check-raise, at that point, more of an acceptable play.


--CM