Villian's something like 46/23/2.5. He plays super-aggro when he has something, and thinks that makes up for being a total station the rest of the time. It's more blind aggression than anything though as he doesn't have the hand-reading ability to know the difference between a thin value-bet and just a bad raise.

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 6 , A .
1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) 9 , 5 , Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (5.50 BB) 9 (2 players)
SB bets,

Curious what this forum thinks about the river here. Doesn't matter if you don't play this high, I usually don't either.

It seems close between a raise and a call. I cant see how you arent good here, because of your read which states that he would have spoken up with a hand already but Im not sure what he could have that could call a raise on the river with, but you say hes a station so I probably raise and hope he calls with an ace, 76s or 44 or something.

I mean...it's a call. If he's as super aggro as you say, he should've popped you with a queen or 9 before the river. Yeah, we're occasionally going to lose to 77/88...but based on your description, he's going to call with those if you raise. This is a busted draw enough that you're getting good odds to call.

Raising with 3rd pair does not seem like an option at all here.

The river 9 doesn't bother me.
If we were ahead going into it, we are ahead coming out of it.
Against normal opponents, I would have loved the opportunity to have seen a cheap showdown.
But I don't mind calling the river donk-bet.
Especially against a loose opponent.

Calling down seems pertty standard in my opinion.

--CM

I dont think we are beaten here ever. 77 is the only hand that makes sense at all. I agree that we very rarely get called by anything, but I think we get called by something we beat slighty more than something in which beats us. We rarely get 3-bet here and there is some value to not showing our hand. Its thin but I still like a raise. Im interested in seeing what he showed down here.

tell me he's got 67s (not spades) or JTs (not spades) here and i'll move up to 100/200

even though he could have a busted draw, i think A high and smaller pairs are his most likely hands. the semicold call from the sb doesnt say 77 or 88. it could well be JT, but i dont think its a 9 or a Q very often. and hes not 3-betting the latter.

I really don't see how it could be anything other than a call?

There's no way you're thinking about a fold here, right?

And raising is silly, I don't see enough worse hands that call, and definitely no better hands fold, if he's a complete station, per OP.

76, too!

Given your read, I'd raise.

This is a five and a small pair pretty often. Seems to me he's worried you'll check/back with a hand like Ax, no pair, and he wants to get value out of those hands. He likely thinka any pair is good, and the hands that beat you make no sense given the way he played previous streets, except maybe 77, but that's a stretch.

Also, this is behavior we'd like to discourage. The more predictably he plays on the turn/river the better, so if raising here can gain you a measure of control over him, it pays dividends beyond this hand.

Wang

playing against someone who's super aggro, I could see him betting/3betting the river which is the last thing I'd want.

So I call until I have a better feel for how he's playing

Why are so many of you saying he is showing up with a missed draw a lot here. If hes aggro this flop gets raised every time by an OESD or flush draw.

Based on your description its a raise and I think thats fairly obvious.

that's why 67 is my first guess, he's only got a gutter on the flop, and pairs on the turn.

Welllll my guess is the obvious one...

He hit the nine and was just calling you down. Then, he hit the trips and he wanted to get some value thinking that you were going to check.

I'm almost positive that this should be a raise. There's just no way in hell that he gets through the flop and turn without raising if he has TP or second pair. The way I saw his range, it's ace high about 2/3 of the time (since I hadn't seem him just call with a pair once) and something like 33 or a weak 5 or 6 30% of the time. Maybe some really really weirdly played boat or trips about 3%. If he'd checked, I would have value bet something like AJ without a second thought.

Unfortunately, I pussed out and just called. Just something about not being used to having a river spot where I can raise third pair. I was kind of mad at myself for just calling it, so I wanted to see if others would see the value in raising. Anyway, his actual hand was toward the bottom of his range (A7o), so I probably wasn't getting a call anyway, but I wouldn't be surprised if he did call the raise there. Probably about 70/30 that he was bet/folding instead of bet/calling.

Still can't quite make sense of his line though. Was he really trying to get value from K-hi? If he thinks I'm suspicious enough to call with king high, does he think I might raise with it and call if I do raise him? Not quite sure what he was going for here.

He realized he was probably behind, and desperation bluffed the river

iggy

would u call a 3bet?

that was my only worry. I got the impression that he would push the river even if you raised. 3betting = not fun

Definitely. I would have been worried at that point, and started to think I was probably behind, but there was no way I was folding to a three-bet from this guy.

I like the raise. I have noticed players that are like your opponent doing this bluff a lot.

If it's a bluff, what value does a raise have?

I am very very confused here.




My thoughts...

I fully agree with all of this.
I don't believe this funky river bet at all.
I say it's a bluff.
I am quite confident that we are still ahead.
But that still doesn't mean we should raise!

Villain is either betting for value, or he is bluffing with air.
There really shouldn't be any middle ground here.
And in both cases, raising is bad.

You only gain from raising if Villain will bet a worse hand and call your raise.
But this should never happen.
I can't see any hand in which a competant opponent would make this play with.

There is simply no reason for Villain to ever bet-call with something less than 3rd pair.
If he has a lesser pair, he will be very pleased with check-calling the river.
He's not going to worry about "losing value" with his little pair against the Preflop Raiser.
He is going to pray that ihis hand is best and hope to pick up another bluff from you.
Betting into you with a little pair would make zero sense, unless he was willing to bet-fold.

A bet-call from Villain in this situation will not happen with a worse hand.
Thus there is no value in raising here.

Point:
Even when we are 95% sure we have the best hand, it doesn't mean that raising is necessarily the right choice.
With our marignal hand, Villain will call with all hands that beat us and fold with all hands that are behind.

I think our correct river play must be to just call down.

--CM

Thank you for agreeing with me CM! Finally someone did!

I think it's close enough that it isnt worth arguing about.

But regardless of what some people say, i cant imagine value raising in the heat of the moment. Or anyone else doing it for that matter.

Im not putting enough thought into any one table at any moment to make a counterintuitive raise that is so marginal that it's debatable whether or not it's good even after detailed analysis.

You don't think you'd put more thought into a hand if you were single-tabling 100/200?

Blah

That logic is overused.

This forum is about discussing whether or not a play is "right" or "wrong".
If it's not close at all, then the issue doesn't get debated in the first place.
Thus all issues discussed here should be relatively "close".

The idea of any one decision not being relevant because you have "so much else going on" is weak.

I am here to listen and learn what people think is the best play- even if it is theoretically a close decision.


--CM

At the time, I was playing one table of 100/200 and one table of 50/100. I was paying plenty of attention. And it really didn't take that much analysis. About a half a second after he bet, there was a voice in my head that said "Raise! There's no way you're behind here." I thought about for 2 or 3 seconds, and I just settled into fish-like passivity and said "I only have third pair, I'll take it to showdown for one bet".

Also, I think villian is almost never bluffing here. What would he be bluffing with? Any flush draw absolutely raises me on the flop or turn. JT absolutely raises me on the flop or turn. I guess I could maybe see a bluff from J8, but that's still a really unlikely holding for villian here. If villian's betting the river, he's betting for value. The only question is whether he's bet/folding or bet/calling. In this particular situation, he was probably bet/folding, but I think a bet/call from a worse hand is much much more likely than him having a better hand. Honestly, I'd say failing to raise in this spot probably cost me 1/3 of a BB in the long run which is far from being "too close of a decision to matter".

Ok, what did he have, Iggy?

I actually posted it a week ago, but I guess I didn't make it very clear that I was posting results instead of more analysis.

I may have seen that a while ago, this thread is old school.

if we are 95% sure that we are ahead dont you think there is metagame value in raising?