So I've been datamining 20/40 SHLHE and I've come across a player with these stats. I'm trying to figure out how best to exploit his tendencies. VPIP/PFR/AF don't seem that ridiculously out of line, but he's obviously leaking. Any ideas?



(My best guess is that he's folding the river to a bet way too frequently.)

His river fold % seems quite high.
Won $ at showdown seems a tad low.
But sample size is minimal.

But why do you think this opponent is exploitable?
His win rate implies that he hasn't been exploited yet.

--cm

I mean, he could just be running badly, but down $5.1k (130 BB) over 1.8k hands usually takes a little bit of effort. Your reply makes me think that you didn't notice the () that implies negative numbers.

YIKES.

I feel like I can find where best to exploit an opponent after playing with him for a session.
But I am not familiar enough with the PT stats to devise a plan away from the table.


--cm

Oh, I'm sure I could too - work out how to play him after playing with him. I've just started getting in the habit of going in with gameplans from my datamines and I can't begin to tell you how immensely profitable it's been. I'm not really experienced enough to interpret all the PT stats yet, but I was discussing this guy with a friend and we decided that it's going to be profitable to bet the river HU against him almost every single time...and that we should interpret his checks as weak since he almost never check/raises.

But realistically, how likely are you to ever bump into him online?

I only play on Stars.
They don't even have a buddy list.
So it is very difficult to ever seek out specific fish.

--cm

It's Bodog...there are only 1-4 of the 20/40 SHLHE tables going at any time. I've collected these 2k hands on him over 16 sessions. So, it's pretty likely I'd say.

well he is Cbetting 73% of his flops, I am not as familiar with SHLE but is that a leak?

he also seems aggressive when the bets are 20 and more passive weak when they are 40.

EDIT i see that it is after a preflop raise. He seems to be a little sticky with weak hands.

given his stats seem decent, but he's losing a lot, he may be playing in an effort to conform to good stats.

by that i mean, he is possibly playing scared, but more interested in things like position and defending against steals, then playing his cards correctly. perhaps he's 3-betting steals with trash, and folding to non-steals with 3-bettable hands, and things like that.

the two that stick out are:
River Fold % - Really low. I'm almost never check/calling rivers against him, but betting, or raising whenever he may be weak. If he's never played with me before, I probably even show winning hands and stuff in an effort to foster a tight image, so he'll be happy folding to my river bets.

Won $ at Showdown - I find this stat is highly correlated with winning. His stats are decent, and his number is very low, especially considering he often folds on the river. One possible reason is similar to my first point - he may be calling with really trashy trash if he thinks a guy is bluffing, but folding decent hands if he doesn't. I realize that that is correct strategy, but I mean he is taking it too far.

Second, and more likely possibility, is that he's just running bad. Whenever I start running bad, my W$SD is one of the most consistent things to fall.

So basically, I think he's mostly running bad. He could well be a losing player, but maybe not with hugely exploitable leaks like -7bb/100 would suggest. The only exception is the folding to river bet number, which seems very high, even for a full-ring game. I'm guessing for SHLHE, that number is extremely high.

Having not read replies, I want to take a crack at this. Cobalt's river bet theory isn't bad, but I don't think it explains everything. For one thing, this player could just be running really bad, it is less thank 2k hands. However, the thing that jumped out at me is that it looks like he may be defending his blinds too much also. He's probably not good enough postflop to be defending almost 60% of the time out of both blinds. Of course, I guess that does partially depend on how many players are normally at the table.

Alright, now I'm interested to see what others had to say.

I find that most "normal" players at SHLHE either c-bet, c-raise, or check-c-raise something in the neighborhood of 75% of the time.

danny highlighted why the stats left me somewhat puzzled. Most of them look fine...so I was curious about what might be amiss.

He's folding too much on the river.

This obviously shows up in the river fold% but it is highlighted in the river aggro of 3.64 which is insanely high.

This street should have the lowest aggro factor of all.

Given that he is only calling with a 'stronger' subset on the river you would expect his W$SD to increase. The fact that it is <50% shows he is probably running bad on top of folding too much.

Given that his W$SD is low and his river fold is high while the other stats look normal, I'd guess that he's just been running bad. Obviously, this theory would be subject to change after you play with him for a little while, but that would be my default guess.

His street by street AF is retardedly backwards.

He likely slowplays too often.

Or his river AF might indicate that he folds to river bets too often.

You cant tell for sure.


But something is wrong if your AF increases on later streets.

Are you sure about this? 2.24% doesn't really seem that low to me. My stat playing full ring is about 1.4%! I find it rare to find people higher than 3%. I have seen plenty of people under about .5% and I consider them 'guys that almost never c/r'. Should this stat be significantly higher playing shorthanded? And what is your % cobalt?

Hmm...yeah...I think I might've been looking at the wrong thing when I said that. I guess I should've said that his checks after PFR are almost always weak. I do think that the stat skews higher for shorthanded since it should be a fairly common play in the process of blind defense. As for my %, I don't have the numbers with me, but I'll check when I get back to school.