Not knowing his chip stack might make this inaccurate, but it just seems like he's committed to much to the pot already to move him off the hand. I don't think he'd be pounding that hard with a king high flush and with the other hearts that are out makes me think he doesn't have a flush. 9-9 is my guess. I don't think you can get him to fold so you almost have to.

I'm just curious as to what his hand may be, but a fold here I believe is the correct play. To me just him having the A of hearts here (which would be the best case scenario as just a pair of Js without a heart or low heart is making a huge mistake if he's check-raising rather than immediately raising at the flop) would be really overly aggressive as you could have a pair of Js or two-pair and the K of clubs certainly wouldn't be that much of a scare card as it doesn't seem as though he's banking on drawing a straight if he's check-rasing that flop. I think most likely he has AA, with or without the Ace of hearts (most likely with) or the small flush. Either way you're dominated thus far and do not need to risk your chips any further.

I have questions...

1. Is this guy too aggressive?

2. Is he the type that would push hard to try and steal?

3. Would he push hard while being scared?

4. Is he good enough to lay down a great hand?


First, I would have raised alot more than 3x bb. Atleast make it 250 to let people know you are serious and to chase out the BB that could have anything if he is playing loose. This was the first mistake IMO.

The second mistake comes on the flop. You either push all in or you fold after the check raise. You do not call. You are either ahead or practically drawing dead to his AKs unless you suck out runner runner.

Post flop with his check raise...I conservatively lay it down and wait for a better spot. These tournaments have blinds increasing every 90 minutes. That is forever to catch fat hands that you know you are going to win as opposed to this scenario where your risk/reward ratio is not that great.

This early in the tourney...why risk it? You could be drawing dead post turn.

I have to disagree. In a tournament if I get the feeling someone has a monster hand I will call very large raises preflop with trashy hands because I know if I hit a random 2 pair or straight there is a good chance I can take their whole stack.

I have given this a lot of thought and I still stand by my first instinct of allin. It doesnt matter about pot odds IMO when you put his tournament on the line, He could be drawing to a dead pair up if you have top set and he has 99- If he has top set he could already be behind to the flush. It would help I admit to know the other guys stack size and even who the other player is (is he good enough to laydown a set here? Is he the sort to survive or is he trying to win the event?). As I said earlier if your read is correct and he calls you still have plenty of outs. The call is an option many people have automatically ruled out because it would certainly worry him-"what hand could he be calling with?". Again this would come down to what "type" of player your opponent is -is he the sort to push on the river whatever falls? Against certain players call is the best option as it gives you chance to outplay him on the river if the board changes or if he checks. A smallish milking type bet on the river would surely scream at him thats hes beat if the board doesnt change. Folding is not an option here as there are too many chances you can take the pot off him, either now or on the river.
ariston

since we are only getting to know what he's bet and what our stack is, how do you know you're putting his tournament on the line? As far as we know it would be our ass on the line, which is partially why I havent made my vote yet. Its a crucial piece of info I dont think I can vote without knowing.(at least in my mind it is)

But none of your outs are the nuts....then you face a tougher decision next bet....even IF you hit.



A call could never be your best option. He is highly HIGHLY unlikely to lay it down for the price. You would need a tight passive player to lay it down....they don't make the bets that were made in this hand.



A milking raise would get you put allin before you can blink. You can not be cutesy or show weakness in this scenario....and if you miss, you have precisely zero chances to take the pot off of him.

Ok i take the milking raise comment back. If you go allin and get called you gave no deision to make whatever comes. If your read is correct (daniel does play alot on his reads) it doesnt matter that none of your outs are nut outs- you will still have outs to win. I think a reraise here will do the job and take the pot though.

I immediatlely thought of your hand you posted in the strategy section. I hope your calculations are correct i went with you on this one.....

not a chance the opponent is folding to an all-in here, daniel doesn't have enough chips to move anyone off this pot (regardless of opponents chip-stack: if he has daniel covered it's right to call, if he doesn't it's right to call). i've said this earlier, if you go all-in here it can only be because you think you have the best hand. daniel said that he is pretty sure that he does not have the best hand. All-in is not an option here.

I said fold because it is a WPT event. It is your tournament life at stake and your hand is not a favorite - though I wish I had realized this and folded at the flop check raise.

I don't like an all in here unless you could have done it first. Damn BB taking away your thunder!

If this was one of the tourneys I usually enter, I'm much more inclinded to think my opponent had AJ or possible small flush from the BB, so I would call. Also, I like playing the cash games after tourneys - so I'm inclined to go out or near double up. Try to go for a check-check on river but unless an Ace comes up I'm calling or going all-in.

Does this make me suck?

One thing I want to add here...We can obviously rule out the Ace high flush as his turn bet signifies that he will go all-in and that he wants you out of the hand before the river. To me this is a slight sign of weakness where the very worst situation you could be facing is AA with the A of hearts which has you drawing to 5 outs. The key factor to the hand is that he does indeed want you gone by the turn which signifies that we couldn't be too dominated here and the fact that he will call an all-in with that committed bet shows he has several outs.

AJ without a heart:
No way in hell can I see him making a call-able check-raise with this hand at the flop so I'm ruling this one out.

AJ with the A of hearts:
This hand does make the most logical sense with the way he's been betting and would have him drawing to 13 outs which makes pushing in at the turn obvioulsy correct.

The low flush:
This has us drawing to 7 outs by the turn and at this point we'd have no choice but to fold. The question in hand is, why would he attempt to check/raise with a low flush at the flop rather than immediately come out betting large as a simple check runs the risk of the table getting a free turn card that may give either player a higher flush.

The Set:
This has us drawing to 14 outs and I believe would be a good oppurtunity to put tournament life on the line and push in. I'd also like to add that like the low flush, the set check-raising here with a medium bet and an all heart board and no heart in his hand would be way too risky and unlikely of a play. I'm ruling this one out as well and if he did happen to play it like that he made a mistake by not defensively betting his hand right away.

AA/KK with a heart:
This is the danger hand that you have to watch out for as it has you drawing to 5/3 outs by the turn. You have to ask yourself whether or not he would limp early in the tournament by simply smooth calling your raise with another player in the hand preflop. Logically he probably didn't limp and most likely he doesn't have this hand, but there is not enough evidence to rule it out as the way in which he bet does match this hand.

2 out of 4 of those hands in my opinion are justifiable to push all-in with the given odds and I decided with the given circumstances to rule out the low flush and the set which in my mind makes pushing in a simple decision as AA or KK with the ace/king of hearts is really the only hand that's a killer on us and I believe he has something like the AJ with the Ace of hearts.

Normally I would argue that you don't need to risk your stack this early in a very marginal situation, but a lot of chips are up for offer and since my style is aggressive and strategy is gaining a large stack early, I feel that doubling up here puts you in a great position early in the tournament. I'd also like to add that my read on the AJ with a heart is a confident one and the main motive behind the play.

My hat is off to Gavin though if he did have AA or KK with a heart. Brilliantly played.

LOL


I disagree with some of others, I don't think you would be able to move many players off this hand. There's just too much in the pot, odds aren't good.

5 outs if one of the Aces is a heart. The way he played the hand from preflop to the turn it's more likely than he does not have AA or KK though.

That offers him at least 1:3 odds to call depending on his stack. with a set, a small flush he will call without any doubt, 2 pairs are too good to fold also, because on the board he may think you have wide range of hands that he had you beaten. A J is clearly fold. So you may got 75% sure that you will get called and go to river as a big dog. the risk/reward ratio is horrendous.

I know these questions are supposed to stimulate our thought process and create open discussion. So there is usually a twist and what appears to be the obvious is not neccessarily the correct play.

There are a couple of questions that I would consider. How much of a stack does my opponent have. How much time till this level of blinds increases. (Even if i lost half my stack the blinds are still reasonable that I can make it back)

The large bet on the turn appears to be a either a bluff for the flush or perhaps over betting to protect top pair or lesser hand from a straight or flush draw.

Everyone's style of play or strategy is different for day one of a tounament. My style would lead me to not get my stack so commited early on especially when I feel I am beat and there are a lot of hands that beat me but only a couple that I dominate. You would need to get a read on the guy pushing his checks in. Based on the read you may go against what the cards are telling you and play the person rather than the board.

There are enough outs for this hand that if you do decide to commit to the pot and call or raise back that you have a chance. But do you want to gamble here or pick a spot when you have much more confidence.

I personally would fold trust my instincts and find a better place to make a move.

I make him sweat it out and then throw my cards into the muck.

If he has 2 pair I've got quite few outs to work with. With my overpair I just need the board to pair (without filling his boat), another Q to hit, or a T or to hit. So I've got 6 outs (3 to each of the two community cards he isn't holding) plus 2 to a Q, plus 4 to a T and 6 hearts (that aren't a K or T). 18/46 to draw here...not being laid good enough odds to draw. Especially not when I'm effectively gambling my tournament life here.

If he's made trips I'm in a world of hurt and if I made that read I fold without even thinking.

If he's got A:heart:J I'm gonna let him have the pot, but that might jsut be my style of play. The only play against this hand is to reraise all-in and he's very likely to make the call giving him 13 outs on the river (3 to the A, 2 to a J and 8 to a ). I'm only a 2 to 1 favorite here and despite being laid about 2 to 1 I'm not usually willing to gamble my entire tournament on an even money proposition this early when I don't need the chips (desperately).

Now if he's all ready got the small flush I've got 7 outs on the river and I sure as hell am not going to make any play here.

If these are his possible holdings playing this hand just doesn't look to be a good play. Make him sweat to make him think twice about trying to bully you in the future and move on to the next hand.

If you are so confident the opponent has you beat, why even bother calling after the reraise on the flop. If another heart comes and he moves all in, it's a tough call considering he might have been semi-bluffing with the ace high flush draw. If he has a set, theres only 2 outs to catch a higher set. It seems like an easy fold. But I'm anxious to see what DN has to say.

If he has a set you dont just have the 2 outs to make a bigger set, uou have the str8 outs and flush outs too. It is a bad call for him to make if he does have a set or 2 pair thats why I stand with my first instinct of allin. If your read is correct you will either win the pot there and then or you will have virtually the correct odds to make a winning hand. To live in these events you have to be willing to die (dont know whose quote that is- sorry)
ariston

willing to die, but not wanting to... which is what is gonna happen if you call the bet or move all in

you're right about the flush and straight outs. but I still think folding is correct if he has a set. the king of hearts is a dead flush card if he has a set. if he has two pair then you have added outs because his unpaired cards can give you a higher two pair.

So according to your read (Quizz #8 conditions), you have dismissed the player making his str8 ("the K doesn't scare you at all"), meaning the BB would have folded preflop with QT when you raised 150. The hands you seem to be allowing the BB to call the 150 preflop raise are: suited connectors, A J, KJ, J9, and pairs. Since the BB is deemed to fold QT, I'll rule J9 out. You are not worried about the K (as per your Quizz #8 conditions) so I'll rule out KJ. Left with the BB holding connectors suited in hearts (making a flush), A J, JJ, 99, 22.

(1) If you are facing a small flush (No A or K )

Calculate the odds of making your flush as 7 out of 45 or 15.6%. The button folded two cards that were either big cards (no hearts or they might have bet) or a pair (one heart maximum) so the odds can be modified but do not change a lot.

(2) If you are facing a set

Calculate the odds of not making a flush, not hitting another queen, and not making your str8.

Since the BB has a set, you have 52 - 4 - 2 - 2 =44 possible cards.
(44 possible cards available - 9 hearts - 2 queens - 3 non-heart tens)/44 possible cards = 30/44 = 68.2%.
Therefore your chances of making your flush or a set of queens is 31.8%.

(3)If you are facing two pair (the BB does not hold KJ)

Calculate the odds of not pairing any cards and not hitting another queen.

Since you are examining the case where the BB has two pair, the number of "pairing cards" this time is 12 - 2 = 10, not 4 x 3 = 12. Since the BB has two pair, you have 52 - 4 - 2 - 2 = 44 possible cards.
(44 possible cards available - 10 pairing cards - 2 queens)/44 possible cards = 32/44 = 72.7%.
Therefore your chances of pairing the flop + turn or hitting a Queen is 27.3%.

(4) If you are facing A J

Calculate the odds of not hitting another heart or an Ace.

Since you put the BB on A J, you hold the Q , and the button folded at least one non heart, you have 52 - 4 - 1 -2 -2 = 43 possible cards and there are 13 - 5 = 8 hearts left in the deck.
(43 possible cards available - 8 hearts - 3 Aces)/43 = 32/43 = 74.4%.
Therefore your chances of winning against A J is 74.4%

From the math, you are a dog to make a winning hand.

I am itching to make a full breakdown of this hand but I will take my chances and post this as is. Hope my math holds up!

This is a folding situation and still early in the tournament, so I voted fold.

flintsword

This is a tough one - I probably would have moved in on the flop.

seems simple to me your telling your self you are beat and it is super early on in a long tourament fold and leave your self with a lot of bullets and tons of time to improve your stack i really don't think you can call because your basically hoping and praying, and why not trust you instints and move on. And if you miss you have 3k or so in chips agianst a feild that has 10k or more on average, and note this feild is some of the best poker players in the world not exactly the company i want to be way behind in chips too trying to scape and claw my way back just doesn't sound like a good plan to me. allin seems bold and you probably do have some outs and if your a gambling style player well it is you style and go for it, i just think there will be a much better time to gamble then that one.

Wow. This question intrigued me enough to finally get me to register and make my first post.

This feels like such an ovious fold to me that I'm beginning to wonder if i'm not seeing something. If Daniel answers that either call or all-in is best hear, it will certainly surprise me, but it'll at least confirm that I definitely don't think along the same lines as DN. I also don't play tourneys too much.

DN gives 4 possibilities: 2pair, set, A:heart:J, and possibly medium flush. I have pretty good pot odds against 2pair unless he has K (which might be ruled out because DN says the K doesn't scare you). I have good odds against A:heart:J. I have bad odds against trips or small flush. So, depending on how you weight the distribution, I'm actually in better shape than I first thought. However...

I really can't see putting in that much more money when I'm likely behind and none of my outs are clean. I have zero fold equity here, since only the weakest player is folding to just 3.5k more if you push all-in. Likewise, with so little stack left compared to the pot, a call is pretty much as bad--what kind of info or leverage do you expect to gain on the river? Yes, I know my opponent's hand is vulnerable, but I don't know in what way it's vulnerable. Basically, this is a crying call/all-in for over half your chips. New school or old school, I don't see how this is a good play. It's v. early in the tourney and you'll have 9k left. There will be better spots to get all your money in the pot.

To me, this quiz question is a lesson on the dangers of open-raising your strong hands when stacks are deep and blinds are tiny.

Call, only because it would be nice to put a beat on the arrogent Gavin punk, DN doesn't need the money, and Reno is a sucky town- so why stay longer than you have to.

If daneil did pass this hand in Reno as you are stating I can guarantee he is regreting it. He normally trusts his reads and his feel for the game and should have gambled here IMO. Maybe different for a lot of the players on the circuit but lets be honest- he doesnt need the money (I mean he doesnt want to scrape into a cash position). He is here to win this event and if hes not going to win he may as well go play cash or go home early. A chance was missed to accumulate some chips here and I still think move allin is the correct play, your first instinct is usually the one you should take.
ariston

The King doesn't scare you at all, but you are stil pretty sure that your opponent has the best hand.

Are you referring to this instinct?

If Gavin played a set or low flush like he did at the flop then he made a giant mistake. People claim that the odds are terrible against a low flush, which is of course true, but fail to consider the way in which he played the hand would be highly unlikely that he actually did flop the flush. You absolutely cannot slow play a low flush or set in this situation as he did. A great tell of the set (which mind you has no heart) or low flush would be a strong flop bet, not a low check-raise which undergoes the risk of your opponent getting a free turn card and possibly another heart for a higher flush. Considering he didn't play the hand too defensively off the bat does signify that his most likely hand here would be AJ with the Ace of hearts as his low check/raise indicates that he does have outs, won't necessarily mind a call and that he also has some sort of a hand. The large bet at the turn immediately should tell you that he wants DN out of the hand at this point, indicating slight weakness as a strong hand would want to make a callable bet here. I also just can't imagine him having AK with the A or K of hearts as we must also consider what's going on in his head as one of DN's possible hands could also be a low flush in which he knows DN would most likely call, regardless of how large the bet is.
If not the AJ with the A of hearts, then I'd also consider that he's straight out bluffing here hoping Daniel is on a draw and that he'll shy away at the turn. With these ideas in mind, the all-in/call should be a much more understandable decision.
And are people flat out forgetting that A Jx is a dog here? Also, keep in mind this is really based more on your tournament strategy and ability to read a hand as the risk/reward greatly fluctuates here with so many given possibilities.

Well, math aside, if your in the hand and you feel your beat, fold. Most of us look for reasons to call. if you feel you have the 2nd best hand fold.

I like to feel I have the best of it, and if I can't do that then I fold, unless I get to call or bet for cheap. yeah I'm a cheap bastard.

and if it is a bluff of any kind good for him, the next time you will have the best of it. :wink:

Ariston: To me, the "accumulate" philosophy means getting involved in a lot of cheap hands and being willing to mix it up with dead money players, even when you're behind preflop, because you know you can outplay them post-flop. In this case, there's very little "play" left in this hand, so that advantage is lost; you're basically playing this hand to take it down, and there are better spots to do this. Also, if Gavin Griffin is indeed the opponent, he's not exactly dead money.

Big-Ern: As I stated before, calling/all-in isn't as unthinkable as I first thought. But I disagree with your assesment of "Gavin's" play. First, he's a good player, so he's capable of playing a set or small flush in many different ways. Also, the way he played it isn't even that unconventional. He's in the BB (meaning he could have anything, down to a naked A ) and checks to the original raiser. After Dan bets and gets a call, BB raises 4.75x Dan's bet and 1.5x the pot. That to me is not a "low check raise." It's certainly callable, but it's a healthy raise. And since there was a caller behind DN, a pure bluff on BB's part seems unlikely to me. When turn comes K (which could have helped DN, but not flushed him), BB bets out 5,500, which essentially commits him to the pot. Yes, the bet indicates that he wants DN out of the hand, but it also says that he thinks he's ahead and willing to put in the rest of his/dan's chips for whatever the river holds.

Long story short, nothing in BB's play would make me at all confident that he held A:heart:Jx. To me, 2pair or set is most likely, with A:heart:Jx or small flush somewhat less likely. With my weighted distribution, this is a fold.

I already found out a few mintues ago that Daniel had 14 outs meaning Gavin didn't have any kind of a heart and most likely had Two-pair with a K or the set. Basically, DN can catch a heart, Q or 10 to take the pot down and I guess he just called Gavin instead of pushing in. Whether or not you fold on the turn with 14 outs is correct or incorrect that early really depends on your type of play, but I'd say a fold would be much more wise at that point. With QQ and a flush draw at the flop, I believe you must bet out aggressively at first, something around 1100-2000 or if you're going to bet low or slow play like DN I'd prefer a fold if any big bet comes in that early in the tournament. However, if it were the final table a 14 out call on the turn would be a more intelligent play in my opinion. You can't blame Negreanu for taking a shot at a large pot oppurtunity early on either though.
Also, the 5,500 bet at the turn indicates that indeed Gavin believes he's ahead, but at the same time he' setting up a do-or-die play if Daniel read him for two pair or the set and had been slow playing a low flush himself, knowing his hand is dominating Griffin's. Too risky of a play only to pick up a pot that isn't quite worth more than betting half your stack for Gavin. The bet is best represented more as a double-edged sword.

I am really confused as to why anybody could suggest an all-in here.

Perhaps somebody who has voted that way could explain it to me...

Daniel says you are reasonably confident that you are behind or possibly facing A:heart:J

Now when I learnt poker I thought that you bet or raised for 3 reasons

1) You have the best hand and want to win more money

2) You don't have the best hand and want to bluff to move your opponent off his hand

3) You don't have the best made hand but you are getting more than your share of pot equity to make the bet +EV over time.

Now to review this hand taking the above into account.

1) Daniel has stated that he is confident that his hand is not the best. (I'll cover the AJ exception in a minute.) So you can't raise for this reason

2) Bluff an opponent off a better hand? If Daniel raises all-in for another 3550 the pot will have:

all of Daniels stack 11,100 + 300 from the preflop calls + 1900 from the BB on the flop + 5500 from the BB turn bet = 18700

So the BB will be getting over 4.25 to 1 to call assuming he has a larger stack.

Who is going to fold here?

3) Pot equity. It's heads up so for a pot equity raise Daniel has to have 24 outs on the river to make this correct. Can anybody find 24 outs?

So that leaves us the A:heart:J holding. If your opponent has this he will definately call with the pot odds above as he will assume that he has at least 8 outs to the nuts and possibly (in fact actually) 13-14 outs to a better hand, so 1 time in 3 your tourney is over.


So in reality Daniel can only raise (all-in obviously) here if he thinks his read is wrong....

Can't see that happening somehow.

PS. I don't think the get big or get out argument really holds any water here.

Why the heck wouldn't you fold? So many better spots to be in, especially this early in the game.

This is going to be my first post on here so i hope i get it right =]

Assuming he has you covered, i'd rank it as
1) All in
2) Fold
3) Call


Reasons for this is u are getting 1.85:1 odds for you to call, meaning u have at least a 35.09% of winning in order to have the right odds to call.

Now, lets calculate your odds against each possible set of hands he could have (Ruling out A A and KK)

a) Two pair without the K. Means you have two K's, two Q's, three Tens, three other cards to counterfeit his two pairs, and nine . That means you have 19 outs. You win 43.18% of the time.

Set, or two pairs with the King. Both situations (unless he reraised u on flop with K Jx) you have 12 outs. Two Q's, Three Ten's, Eight (excluding K ). You win 29.55% of the time.

c) A Jx, your the favorite and he has 12 outs (Two J's, Three A's, and 8 hearts). Roles are reversed from example b. You win 70.45% of the time.

d) worst situation, small flush. Means you have 7 outs (possibly 6 if he has a straight flush draw). You'll win 15.91% of the time.

You're getting enough odds to call in a and c, but b and d negate the % wise a and c offers. Now from what you describe of the BB, he seems to be a solid player, probably capable of laying down hands . If this were the case, All-in is better than flat calling there, since he might be scared of you hitting a set of Kings on the turn with the K to beat his set. You might have had the nut flush on the flop already in which u semi-slowplayed, causing him to perhaps fold his small flush. This reminds me of the hand you described in your blog against Eric Lindgren, where you had pot committed yourself and then Eric came over the top of you. Or the play against Howard Lederer on TOC. Except the BB is the one saying "I'm pot committing myself to this, so you better have a hand to play against me".

If the above were the case, you'd get +folding EV for him. He'd be getting 4.41:1 to call, which if he believes hes behind would require him to have at least a 18.5% chance to outdraw u on the river. Against the two scenarios in the previous paragraph, he'd be drawing to one out at most.

Plus by all-ining, it saves you the trouble of making a difficult decision on the river (what card would u want to come up exactly?). If u decide to call on the river no matter what comes up, u may as well push on the turn to get +folding EV.

If its against some internet newbie, i'd lean towards folding since u can get better spots to get his chips, and that he probably wouldnt be capable of making a big laydown. So I think it depends on what type of player the BB is. I can't wait for your answer!

forgot to mention if the BB believe hes behind if u chose to all in there, to only situations where he'd be getting the correct odds to call is if he had a set and believes u to have the flush, in which case he'd have 10 outs a in which he wins 22% of the time.

In other words, don't risk doubling up when you're 70% to win? May want to reconsider what you just said...

I'd make the move confident he didn't have a low flush or AA/KK with a heart with the way he played it and going by the read of A Jx. According to Daniel's Journal, Gavin had a hand like two-pair or the set in which DN was left with 14 outs. With this known the obvious play would be fold, but I certainly can understand why a player would want to risk elimination early if he read his opponent for A Jx as folding when you're 70% to double up is completely foolish in this situation regardless of how early or late it is in the tournament.

I don't claim to be a good poker player but i never would make this call on the flop. What hands can you actually beat except the A high flush draw?
Even then i think you are only still a slight favorite.

You have only invested what..650 or so in the pot which still leaves you with over 10k. It's also day one mind you so no need to get involved with this pot IMHO...to me this is a pretty easy fold (unless you have some sort of massive read on the fella) on the flop..so of course i'd fold on the turn.

I would go all in. Putting myself in my opponents shoes I come to the conclusion that I would only bet that much if I was on a flush draw or had a small flush. If I had trips (or two pair) I would bet about half that and then go over the top if anybody raised me.

If he is on a flush draw then I am in great shape but if he has a small flush I still have a chance to win AND he still has to call my all in bet before we even get to the last card.

This is a tough one. My first reflex would be to fold. With a little analysis the right play would be "Pump it, or dump it". Simply calling here would be wrong. The raise to 5500 on the turn seems a little too fishy to me and I would have to put him on the flush draw when the Kc came on the turn. If my read of the type of player I'm facing is correct and he may be holding two pair or a set I still have considerable outs to beat him. That is 15 outs or 2-1 odds of hitting.
I like to gamble and I know Dan likes to "thrive rather than survive" in the early stages of a tournament so I'd say push all-in and 1) Hope to pick up the pot right there. or2)hit one of my many outs and establish an aggressive table image early and the stack to back it up. 8)

Big-Ern. You need to read this in context. Taking one paragraph out of a detailed explanation to pick holes in it is not very constructive.

Firstly my post was questioning why anyone would go all-in, it didn't discuss folding or calling.

Secondly, I have put some effort into explaining the thought process across all possible (albeit from a read) holdings. Of these holdings AJ was the exception as it was the only hand that we are in front of. If in fact we knew Gavin had A:heart:J it would be correct to go allin. However we don't.

Lets be generous and say there is a 25% chance of AJ and 75% chance of being behind two pair or more. For the other 75% it is wrong to go all-in. Depending on other factors like pot-odds, stack size etc calling or folding may be correct but going all-in is wrong.

Going all-in when it's correct to do so only 25% of the time (and remember that is a generous figure, and that 25% is 'corrupted' by costing you the tournament 1/3 of the time) is 'completely foolish'

Please don't quote me out of context. It starts discusions that are irrelevant to the OP and only wastes my time and yours.

For the record I posted previously that I felt folding was the correct play with all factors considered

. One thing I was wondering is how much a players evaluation of his own expectation/abilities in a tournament factors in to these types of decisions. If your names Daniel Negreanu it would be far clearer to me to fokd here than if my name happened to be Mr Dead Money.
These types of questions make me realize why I prefer live to online. I d rather be watching my opponents reaction to the turn card and watch him reach for those 5500 in chips he bet on the turn, than trying to read those poker faced aviators.

it depends on my read of the player, and if im sure he has that range of hands i fold and rebuild my stack, its not too hard

two options:

Fold
Reraise the flop

I would fold on the turn simply becuase from the way this opponent is betting your going to put all of your chips in on the river. Your getting 1.8 to 1 pot odds.

I might of reraised the flop when the opponent over bet so much. You might give away the strength of your hand, but if he comes over the top of you then, it's probly a pretty good shot he already has the nuts.

That all depends on who your opponent is as to which I might do.

I just wanted to reply to Nutcracker's comment. No, you're not the only one who would fold. To me it would totally depend on what I know about the player, but if it's early in the tournament and you're confident about your skills, you should be able to fold up shop after a check-raise and outplay the guy later.

This is a great situation to be in against another good player. Obviously, if the guys an idiot and you think you're behind you have to fold here. But against a good player who gives you some respect, this pot is yours for a re-raise.
The guys bet is such a large percent of his stack, it screams of strength. Hes essentially saying: theres no way I'm folding this one. Which is why you want to move on him. It's such a strong move that for you to come over the top of him, you must have the ace or king flush. He would have to assume that you, being a good player, wouldn't try and bluff someone whos so obviously pot commited. And we can pretty much assume that this guy has AT BEST a small flush. Noone would play the nuts like this. Therefore, I want to push all in. If he has a set, hes probably folding it despite the almost callable odds. And any other hand is a no brainer: he thinks hes drawing dead (or almost dead with 2-pair), and so pot odds mean nothing. Go over the hand again, and you'll see: all your moves have been the same moves you'd make if you had the nut flush.
There's no way a solid player will call your allin here. This is a great chance to pick up a ton of chips.

Let's all consider that the "75% odds" is extremely innaccurate and doesn't hold water when you consider the most likely hand Gavin holds while analyzing what he did preflop, at the flop and at the turn as most players don't make moves based on raw, estimated odds. I've already gone into detail and explained why it's highly unlikely, if you know how good players generally play a hand, that he had the low flush. That leaves us with the set and two-pair, which has us at 14-20 outs considering whether or not his two pair includes a K. As I explained before with AA/KK with a heart, Gavin would more likely made a more callable bet on the turn knowing he has most hands beat and strong drawing power or may put DN on a set or two-pair with this hand and would be taking an extreme risk by coming out on the turn for 5,500.
Truthfully, I don't want to waste anymore time arguing here because when you're in a situation where your read is solid for 14-20 outs, it depends on tournament strategy and style of play. Sure, you can fold and sit on your stack, waiting for a better oppurtunity, but because it is so early you may wish to risk your stack early to gain strength off the bat. To say it's wrong in this case is like arguing what style of play is the absolute best. War of the opinions.

Although I can see already that fold, which was my original vote is probably going to come out as the "correct" play.

Yes, I saw your argument for Gavin's most likely holding as A:heart:J

Suffice to say it was fundamentally flawed.

AJo is the least likely holding for Gavin. The preflop play was a raise and a call in front of him.

The only 2 factors that allow Gavin in here with AJo are the facts that it was DN raising (so that means diddley squat as he will raise with just about anything) and that he was in the BB getting a discount.

That said, he was going to be out of position post-flop and basic Gap Theory says that the caller in the cutoff has potentially a very strong holding.

In light of this it would be unusual for a good player to actually call here with AJ0 - a hand begging to be dominated and thus requiring a miracle flop to feel comfortable with.

It is muchmore likely that he called with suited connectors/one gaps or a small pair hoping to hit the flop big or get out of there.

You argued that he made a mistake on the flop if he held a set or small flush however his play on the flop is perfectly acceptable if this the case, especially when you consider the 3rd player in there. It is highly likely that if it is checked to the aggressor he will bet, if not the cutoff will have a good steal opportunity and is also likely to bet. The check-raise has a good chance of coming off and is an excellent way to defend a strong hand that is vunerable to redraws. Worst case scenario is it getting checked around and it is easy to see if you are still in the lead.

No mistake there.

With only 3 ways of holding A:heart: J compared to 3 pocket 9's, 3 pocket 2's and 4 reasonable suited connectors the AJ is already less than 25% likely before we even mention suited one-gaps and pockets Jacks (less likely holdings)

It is still early , the key in a multi day tournment is to survive. Make him sweet a bit but Fold this one and commint your chips when you have much better odds in your favor.

Your assumption here is painfully wrong. You already put one piece to the puzzle together, as DN does raise with anything and let's not forget blinds are 25-50 in a tournament with a starting stack of 10,000, therefore making it 100 more to go ontop of the 50 would only be a little more than 1% of Gavin's stack assuming he has 10k or less. The only other caller here is the button, whose call is also influenced by position in which he can fluctuate from a weak to strong hand. I think AJo is perfectly acceptable to see a flop given the price here. With that said, I don't think it would be incorrect to call with virtually any hand in as you're paying 100 more to profit 325 before the flop and can always check/fold if you didn't hit. It really isn't that much off your stack to capitalize on a given oppurtunity regardless of hand odds and only a very tight player would probably lay it down here.