Blinds: 100-200 no ante
Your Stack: 10,000
Villian Stack: 10,000

Villian (I'm learning :-) raises to 600 from EP. You know that he won't raise from that position with small suited connectors. You put him on the following range of hands:

-Pocket Pair
-A J or better
-KQ

You are next to the button with 99 and call. All others fold.

Flop: J 7 4

Villian bets 1000. You know that Villian will likely make a continuation bet with any of the hands he has. You also know that the player is unlikely to fire any more bullets at the pot unless he has a hand.

Raise to 2500-3000 and see what he does. Fwiw, I fold if he comes back over the top.

If he flat calls and the turn is lower than my 9, I'm betting/raising, depending what he does.

easiest smooth call in the world.

Well, if you smooth call you will know where you stand by whether or not he leads out the turn.

But, you risk giving him a free shot at that AKQ...and if a ten comes and he bets you probably can't rule out an oesd either. You call, and any card higher than 9 comes out, and he bets, you need to fold...and you only lose the $1000.

You raise to 3000 you definitely find out where you're at...you take the 2500 right then and there, preventing him from drawing to two overs, or you find out in a hurry if you're behind.

I suppose if he came over the top with 88 he'd steal it from you.

But, most times, if he comes over the top, you fold the worse hand, and you lose that 3k.

How often does he have AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,77,AJ and how often does he have AK,AQ,KQ, and 88? Will he do this with the low pocket pairs.

Just based on hand combinations, he has the losing hands more often than the winning hands...but not a lot more.

The times you are already behind you are losing an additional 2k if you raise instead of call.

The times you are ahead, if you only call, 1 in 8 times you lose the 2500 pot, plus your extra 1k for calling instead of raising. (based on the read that he will only bet the turn if he already has a hand, or if he hits his hand)...the times you hit your set are a miniscule factor.

The way I see it, for a raise to be correct hero would have to be ahead 5x for every time he's behind....I don't think he is.

Because of this, I'm not reraising to 3000 and I'm just calling. I would've like to make it 3000 to keep him from sucking out on me but I like the smooth call. It is the best move.

Very interesting analysis. When I post the answer you'll be surprised to learn what some other people would have you do in these types of situations.




As a side note, would your answer change at all if you happened to have J-10?

I probably raise and shut down if he sticks around. I guess you could make a case for folding an underpair too.

Based on the givens, I'd call the $1000, and see if villain fires another bullet on the turn. I'd rather be out 10% of my stack than 30% (if I had raised to $3000) if I end up folding on the turn. If villain flopped top pair, or a set, and he fires another bullet on the turn, and I know that my 99 is no good, I can fold. If villain has AK or similar unpaired overcards, there's only about a 13% (1 in 8) chance that he'll pair up on the turn and, if he misses, and if he checks the turn, I'll bet the turn and take it down.

If I'm holding J10, I'd probably play it the same way, but a raise to $3000 would be an option as well.

I would TOTALLY raise here. Put him to the test and find out just where the heck you're at. A raise could well end the hand right there.

Ditto for J-10.

Interesting question...well, you're no longer worried about TT, and you're less worried that he has AJ or JJ.

It would come down to whether he would give up on 99 or TT if you called a flop bet - I'm inclined to believe he would not...that a reasonable player who led out a continuation bet on the flop, and got called, could still believe his 99,TT, maybe even 88 are good....and fire again at the turn. Now, hero with top pair mediocre kicker doesn't know where he stands.

I think I'd raise with TJ to define things some more (or take the pot right there). I think raising an additional 2000 will likely be cheaper than a call you'd need to make on the turn for similar information. If you just called the 1000 on the flop, the pot is now 3500, so a turn bet of 2500-3000 could be expected.

On the other side of the coin, if you are behind you have more outs than 99, so I wouldn't call a call terrible - I just think it leaves you more in the dark.

With 99, if you get bet on the turn the only hand you're beating that he "might" bet with is 88..otherwise, you're fairly certain you're dead. With TJ, there's a couple more possibilities of hands that you beat, and it also reduces the possibilities of a couple hands that beat you.

(I'm making an assumption that 66-22 are out of the picture - and that may be a bad assumption)

i like a call IF the villain isn't tricky enough to take a scary c/r line on the turn if he has a monster.

if we just call here, he gets only one card to improve if he is indeed behind. two overs might get there cheaply, but that does not happen but 1/7-1/10 or so times. if we raise and he comes over the top i feel like the amount of chips we put at risk to find out if we're beat just sucks and does not make that the best play considering how rarely a worse hand gets us on the turn. we can price out those overs on the turn if he checks to us.

the problem for me really lies in whether this guy is good and tricky enough to "continuation bet" a set, AJ (though this hand is probably a bit weak for this sort of line in most cases), or overpair, and then check the turn inducing a bet from a hand like ours that he's going to checkraise. here, we'd run into the same problem of risking a lot of chips to find out that we're beat, and that's gross. if i think someone is capable of making this fancy a play on me OOP, i will often go for my info on the flop and raise it right there to make this sort of play incorrect.

so yeah, i like a call in most spots, and a raise against someone who likes to get fancy with strong hands OOP.

as for J10, that is the kind of hand that can improve more easily on the turn (pick up a gutshot if one of those overs hits, 3 outs for 2p, etc.) and a call seems less risky against a possibly tricky opponent. but that's odd as i think about it, because for some reason i feel like i would be more likely to raise J10 in this spot, even though as i'm thinking about it now it seems like a call is better with J10.


my question is what do we know about what this guy would do if we flat called and he had a hand very similar to ours: 88-1010?

This makes perfect sense to me, with 99 or JT. All we can beat are AK and AQ. Calling gets us the same info as raising, for a much cheaper price. (Giving villain a free shot at a six-outer roughly half the time is better than charging ourselves and extra 2-3 k the other half the time.)

Raising is even worse with JT than with 99, because it gives villain a chance to reraise us off our probable 5-outer when he has an overpair.

Heck, if villain has us beat half the time, and will reraise when he has us beat and fold when he doesn't, then a pot-sized raise is a terrible play (as we'd be getting worse than 1-1 from the pot on the raise, which would make folding a better play than raising).

I think smooth calling is the best option for several reasons: (1) You can freeze your opponent if he has a hand like AK, AQ or AJ; (2) You don't commit more chips into the pot by raising and risk getting reraised. A call will allow you to get the same information if the opponent fires another bullet on the turn; (3) You keep the pot as small as possible.

Well, I would call here because he is giving me 2.5-1 pot odds. I know that isn't great, but considering that I think that it is very possible that he has a hand like AK, AQ, maybe Pocket 10's (if I knew he had those I would fold)!!! But this also sets up a chance for me to steal on a 4th or 5th street if he doesn't fire again.

I am really not sure, but I would lean towards calling then see what happens on 4th street. I play more by feel than by mere circumstance. When I am at the table, I can feel the players and almost sense what they have. I know, call me strange, but it works for me.

That gave the obvious answer away...

I don't like calling here, Even if villain won't fire if the turn misses. I can be pretty sure that if any of the A, K or Q hit the board on the turn that villain will fire again.

I would prefer to find out where I am in this hand. There are no real threatening draws on the board, so if I raise here, I can be 90% sure that if villain continues on in the hand that I am beat.

I love playing against opponents who always make continuation bets on the turn because I love to test them and i'm going to do no different here.

My question is this...

Why would we just call pre-flop in position with 9-9 if we weren't planning on doing something with it? I think it's really weak to just call down past the flop with only a mid PP. We got a good flop so why not follow through and find out if we've won?

P.S. I voted for raise to 3000, but I would be more inclined just to raise it to 2500 because I believe it accomplishes the exact same purpose.

Call with 99 for me. By raising you risk too many chips in the hand that almost has no potential. it is easy to lay it down when bad turn comes.The bad thing about the raise is that opponent not necessary will fold you even if he has ace high and you will both be coming to see the turn, but just with different pot size.

Raise is best option

smooth call will allow villian to bet next hand, about 2000 and leave us in the same boat we are in now, if he does have 10,10 or set etc. then we are just going to bleed off more chips calling.

We have position, we need to use it.

If he reraises its an easy fold

if he calls and checks we get two cards to improve, maybe get a show down with no more action

if he calls and bets turn we can release hand.

calling is too passive when you have position.

I like smooth calling. He is ahead of us around half the time as it is, and we know he will probably shut down if we have him beat. The only real benefit of raising in this case is to prevent overcards from drawing out on us.

I think this a spot to make a defensive call on the flop. Knowing the villan will continuation bet most hands we atleast have to call this one bet. If he leads again on the turn easy laydown. Given his range preflop and the board he pretty much can't be on a draw. If he bets the turn we're beat, as we've allready been told he's probably gonna shut down after one failed continutation bet.

That said, reasons not to raise the flop. Raising preflop commits alot of our chips to the pot. It also forces us to play a big pot, not a favorable spot to be in with a weak holding. Raising to 3000 means we've allready put 3600 of our original 10k in the pot. If we're reraised we have to give the hand up, no question. With the villan just calling the only card I like to see roll off on the turn is a 9. Even if a 2 hits the turn and we're checked to I'm not confortable with a bet in that spot. With 7500 in the pot and 6700 left in out stack there is no amount that can be bet that doesn't commit us to the pot.

This hand to me seems to have small ball poker concepts all over it. Preflop we just call in position with a middle pocket pair. We're seeing a flop for cheap with a deep stack standard small ball play. One the flop, making a defensive call with what could be the best hand. But, not raising because we don't want to commit ourselves to playing a big pot without a big hand. Another standard play in my opinion.

So, my vote, call on the flop and see what happens on the turn. As far as changing the hand to J-10, I think I play it the exact same way. In my opinion top pair bad kicker is no stronger than 99 in this spot. So, in essence, the two are the exact same hand. I still think were beat if bet into twice and must fold accordingly.

I agree with most that if you're sure Villain won't bet the turn if he has missed the flop+turn, then a defensive call is probably the best play. You're giving away equity in the cases where you're ahead, but you're risking less chips.


A more interesting question would be: Villain will fire another bullet on the turn unimproved a percentage of the time. How high would that percentage have to be to make raising the correct move? Consider that villain will likely fold TT, and maybe a weak J to such a raise.

*grunch* (that's 2+2 lingo for "I didn't look at replies).


I raise. Obviously, if you have nines, J high is one of the better flops to raise. Do not ever let that guy slow play an overpair.


The hand goes like this:

RAISE: He folds and you win the pot. Fairly frequent. Otherwise, you raise and he has it, and you fold to a reraise.

RAISE AND VILLAIN CALLS: You check behind without a set and potentially call the river based soley on reads. No reads, fold river.

RAISE AND VILLAIN RAISES: Easy fold.


As far as calling goes, **** that. You have to define your hand in the VILLAIN'S mind to win this pot. Defining your hand on the flop is a very important part of NLHE. The best play is a raise. You define your hand as stronger than you are, and if you're behind, the villain will not give you a tough decison, but an easy one.

Anyway....that's what I think.

Thing is. Since Villain won't bet the turn with less than a hand you define your hand by calling.

I would call, and fold to a bet if another high card comes out. However, if he calls, i'll bet 1/2-2/3 of the pot to try to take it away from him if a low card comes. Your call on the flop is basically a bluff...With a good turn bet, you could make him fold TT or a lower PP, but he's not folding the overpairs and AJ

If he isn't gonna fire again.... call and bet when he checks.


Agree that a "free" card to pair his overs is less expensive than a raise if we're beat.





Note: Another example of why not to be so predictable...

I make the raise. If he calls, I probably have him beat unless an over card hits the turn. If he reraises me, Insta muck the hand and make a mental note of what happened.
Either way, thats a tough situation to be in.

You are a slight favorite against your opponent's range of hands. (53% according to pokerstove). In this case, you are probably way ahead or way behind, with position on an aggressor and you're not likely to face future bets if you are way behind.

Ideally, you call and it goes check-check on both the turn and river (unless you catch a nine or a runner-runner straight). I don't get why some people are assuming that your opponent will bet again on the turn if he has a hand like a set and never check the turn there.

If your opponent will only bet the turn if he has a hand and the category of "a hand" includes picking up a draw and he will bet again if he has KQ and catches a ten on the turn of an open-ended straight draw or if he gets halfway there on his backdoor flush draw. "A hand" could also be anything that beats middle pair.

This means that even though you are a slight favorite against his hand range, you're not going to win this hand 53% of the time if you follow the strategy of caling and folding to any further action. And you don't get implied odds for a call from being able to trap him for a second continuation bet on the turn or river.

I think that this might make it close enough that the idea of folding despite being a favorite against your opponent's range is a non-ludicrous proposition (although not necessarily the right play), especially when you consider the stack sizes and the blind sizes and consider that this is probably relatively early in a 10K buy-in tournament. This is a spot where you should consider passing up a small edge early on in a tournament. For all you people who wanted to fold AK vs QJ on the first hand of the WSOP, you were in better shape then than here.

The more that I think about it, the more that I think you should fold, especially if you are a good player at a weak table.

As for holding JT, you're in much better shape and have more outs if you are beat (unless you are against a set) and calling on the flop makes more sense.

Of course, this all assumes that your opponent won't fold AA to a raise on the flop. There are some players who are tight enough to do so, because a raise represents a set or two pair on a board like that with little semi-bluffing opportunities.

I don't know about poker stove, but according to my calculations we are ahead about 63% of the time. (We beat: 5pp, AK, AQ, KQ - 78 combinations. We're behind: 4pp, AJ, 3 sets - 45 combinations). This is according to the hand range given in the quiz, I tend to think that villain won't raise 22-77 100% of the time though.

There are two ways to find out where we stand. 1. Raise to 3k. 2. Call. By calling we will give away equity in the cases where we are ahead, but by raising we are risking more chips. What I call 'added loss' is the cost associated with each option in order to find out if we have the best hand.

To make it simple, let's say Villain will fold all hands except AJ, QQ, KK and AA to a 3k raise. And will fire again with TT+ (including improved drawing hands).

If we are behind Villain has, roughly, an average of 4 outs. Which means that 63 percent of the time we are giving away about 8 percent in equity. Pot is 3200 after our call, making our 'added loss' 0.63*0.08*3200=161 chips.

By raising we will lose 2000 37% of the time making our 'added loss': 0.37*2000=740.

I don't know, maybe I've made a crucial mistake somewhere (please correct me if I have), but it looks like a clear call to me. Also, will villain continue betting if he/she picks up a draw or with a hand like 77? This changes things slightly.

Pokerstove compares the showdown potential after the river of the ranges while you're computing the current leader. I think you're on the right path here.

We're not going to a river most of the time here. We need to know likely we're ahead on the flop and then again on the turn if we give a free card. There's also the rare occasion when we hit our two-outer on the turn.

I think that is an incredibly easy smooth call, it keeps us from losing too much if we're beat and with your read we should still have a good idea of where we're at in the hand on the turn. Also, the board is not draw heavy so we don't need to worry about charging him since according to your read he cannot have a straight draw.

Part of your math problem is that when you're behind, you're often about 10% to suck out, while when you're ahead you opponent is 25% to draw out, so you can't weigh hands equally.

Look at the calculations again, I'm not 'weighing hands equally'.

Second, there are two more inaccuracies. 1. Villain has on average 4 outs (not 6) if he's ahead. 2. This hand will probably not see the river, regardless if we raise or call on the flop.

Well, he bet the pot size, which means he did not flop the nuts most probably. If he had pocket sevens, fours, or an over pair, he will probably bet small, maybe half the pot size, to try to keep me in. If he had a monster like a set of Jacks, he probably will check, to try and trap me. So, I could only guess he has A-K, and try to buy the pot right here, and if I call he will still be in good shape. Or he might have A-J, and he is trying to protect his Jacks with the top kicker with that big bet.

I definitely will not fold in here. My nines are still not too bad. If I hit a 9 on the turn, I could break him. If the turn comes 10 or 8, I will have a gutshot straight draw, and will move in on the turn, on a semi bluff. Therefore, I still am not too weak to fold.

I also will not move in here, because if I did, and he had A-J, I'm dominated and he will call. He will fold the A-K or any pocket pair, but I don't want to risk the whole thing.

Smooth calling here might look nice, but I won't call. If I called I will have no idea what he has. I also know he will fire again on the turn. If a big card comes, I can't call, and if his raise is big enough, even with a small card on the turn, the Jack will scare me, and I will still be worried he hit a set on the turn.

Therefore, I will raise 3000. It's a big raise here. He will put me on a J with a lower kicker than his of course (if he had A-J), maybe he will even be worried I made a set, or I have an over pair. If he had a hand like A-K, A-Q, he will almost definitely fold to my re-raise. If he has A-J, he will most probably just call. I could then bluff if the turn comes a K or a Q, fold if an Ace or a small card comes - and of course hope for a 9.

I think the re-raise is the best move here, I will get a lot of info regarding his hand, take control of the hand, scare him a bit, and set up a bluff if I needed it.


Another thing,I would try to let him talk, pick up some tells, and get a better read on him, that will help me a lot. This is a situation I like to ask the question: " How much do you have left?", just to let him worry about my hand.


By the way, I am putting him on pocket 10s.

Hi, (first post here)
So Villian is a learning player...hihi...I think he is just playing orthodoxly (agressive and here with a hand), I mean he's got his trips on flop because the flop is not drawing anything. He bet on flop : a very good play indeed.
Remember :
1/villain has not a good position.
2/it is like a HU pot : nothing to steal!
That shows that there are limits even when playing agressive : you have to keep ur sens of danger. Be cautious here, the flop didnt help you and helped villian that's simple.
I'd fold here...

NB: Im frenchy, I m not a beginner in Poker, worse, I just played once in my whole life...I m just learning from books and DN's quiz is very funny. So dont take my opinion seriously. Thx

Only if he is beating you. Read DN's post more clearly - the guy will give up on the turn if he has nothing.

If we assume that we are not folding 1000 is going in regardless.

Cost of finding out you're winning by raising? 2000

Cost of finding out you're winning by calling? (6/47)*(2500) = 319.15

The (6/47)*(2500) represents the lost equity for giving a free card. It should actually be less because villain will not always have 6 outs.

Seems like a pretty easy call to me unless you are ahead > 85% of the time on the flop

Is this a cash game or a tourney?

Cash game I raise and if he calls and I don't improve I shut down and reach in my pocket after the hand is done and buy back up with hopes of getting my money back at a later time from the weak player at the table.

Tourney I flat call and see what the turn brings because the extra 2000 raise is worth more because my tournament life is on the line(assuming its early in the tournament). Also, I still have a chance of winning the hand if he doesn't bet the turn with minimal risk.

Two options here -
1. Fold... There is a chance you are ahead, but the 1000 is not a small bet considering the pot size. This is a "learning" player so I would be less inclined to put them on a bluff.
2. Raise to 3000... this will probably win the pot for you unless they hold an overpair or AJ. I prefer raising here, because more often than not your nines are good - but calling will not tell you a damn thing. If the guy holds something like 88 he has no reason to stop betting when you just call.... but if he just calls - you have a good chance to chase him off the better hand - and if he folds you have already got all the value you could have out of this hand (he wasn't going to keep betting if you called, and would have folded to a raise anyway - so why give him the chance to suck out).

Calling seems like the worst option. You could make a case for pushing all in, since I doubt guy has any better than just one pair - but that would depend on if you think this is a good enough player to throw away something like top pair or an overpair.

I personally don't think theres enough information to make the "perfect" decision here, but based on the information i'd smooth call. Personally i'd smooth call on that flop with a lot of hands, and i play a lot of hands. Smooth calling accomplishes a few things here in my opinion. One, it allows a scare card to roll off on the turn. Unless the villain turns two pair, or flopped a set, or turns a set, its going to be hard for him to proceed in the hand. If i'm flat calling with hands like 56, 67, 78, j10, qj, kj, aj, jj, 77, 44, theres almost no safe turn card. So when the turn comes, hes going to check if he has nothing, and theres a good chance hes going to check, and fold the best hand. If he turns top pair, he's still not going to be too comfortable in this hand. On a J 7 4 rainbow board, its not very draw heavy, so flat calling is typically indicative of a stronger hand. So by flat calling, you are comitting less chips on the flop, and you're increasing your chance of getting him to lay down the best hand.

I think raising is pretty weak hear. Flat calling generally represents a bigger hand than a raise. There's not too much value in raising with a jack here. Most of the time you're either going to have your opponent crushed, or be crushed yourself. Raising will only get you called by a better hand, and prevent weaker hands from proceeding. So if your opponent feels most people aren't going to raise with the jack, than that really only leaves a few hands that would raise, and that would be a hand exactly like you have, 10 10, 99, or 88, or the 56. You open the door for your opponent to push you off the best hand instead of you pushing your opponent off a hand. There is a chance he might fold the best hand also, but i feel like hes going to fold the best hand more often when you flat call him.

The learning reference is DN stating that he (DN) is learning the correct terminology for wording these questions.

Also I think you missed this bit

You know that Villian will likely make a continuation bet with any of the hands he has.

This is a pretty absurd discussion.

Given OP's analysis, calling is the play. If he fires the turn, and we are forced to fold, we're still fine chipwise, given the blinds/antes.

If he checks, we bet the turn.

I don't get it. What's the question? We don't want to play a big pot here, and if he's ahead, we'll shut down on the turn. If he catches up with a paint, we'll ALSO shut down on the turn. If he suddenly gets out of line, completely betraying our read, good for him.

Wang

It seems to be a blatantly obvious call. It seems obvious unless it's some sort of trick question, but I don't see how. Of course I've been wrong before and will be wrong again

This is what people bump into all the time..

I have poket 9's and the opponent(s) next to me, in my assumption, may have something better.. Pre-flop id either call or raise depending on the pairs.. But I call post flop given the fact i have pocket 9's.. After the flop, I may fold IF my opponent(s) raise higher anyways.. Because of one or two things.. An ace will hit on the turn or the river anyways and chances are slim that you can run trips or better anyways..

Thank you for your time :)

I think, raise in the flop with pocket 9's will be the possibility of higher pair. But the 9's are on the river possibility, I might check for fear of the trap. Do agree of with playing poker analysis?

call and reeavluate on the turn. You are most likely ahead, and a raise to $3000 may get called by an iferior hand (AK etc.). I think you get just as good of info by taking one off and seeing what villian does on the turn as you do by raising, and it is cheaper information.

My intuition is telling me to raise to see my position in hand strength.

If opponent has any hand at all, I normally have them bet before I do so I can suck them in.

Depending on the hand that I have.

JJ would definately make me raise.

Done it many a times.

AoS

I would call here given that the OP's analysis included the bit of information that there is likely to be only ONE continuation bet.

Also, DN mentioned in a his most recent blog that:

"People often ask me for "one tip" that should help change their game. Well, if I had just one shot, I think this would be it: in order to win a WPT event you can't be afraid to let them catch up, even if that means they outdraw you sometimes."

I think this is about minimizing losses. Raising to 2500 (or 3K, which is basically the same) will protect your hand, but it will cost you 2.5 to 3 times as many chips if he does actually have a hand. You're not really risking that much by just calling and letting him draw to his 6 outs (if he's behind) for free. If you know that he's unlikely to fire 2 bullets with nothing, then I think smooth calling here is far and away the best play.

I think if I have JT it definitely changes the scenario. Now I can know that I am beating all PPs smaller than Jacks, except for the 4s and 7s, and that hands that have a J in them are less likely. Based on the villain's range, it shouldn't make that much of a difference, but every bit counts.

You are a coin flip favorite to be ahead. His cb gives you no additional information.

You are WA/WB at this point and that calls for keeping the pot small, so you are certainly not going to raise. Since you are a favorite in the hand, you arent going to fold, especially since his turn action is going to tell you whether you should play further..ie you arent likely to make a mistake on the turn. Call and see what his turn action is, value bet if he doesnt show strength, fold if he does.

I would have to say that raising 3000 would be the best option here to get a better definition of the villian's hand. Smooth calling presents too many problems because your still not sure where your at in the hand plus it gives villian a chance to hit one of the two overcards he's probably holding. Plus if you only call and your opponent has two overs he's not going to bet again unless he hits. I only like smooth calling to build a pot but this opponent is only going to bet again on the turn if hes building a pot for himself. I say with a hand thats as vulnerable in this spot I would raise the 3000 to find out where I was but also hopefully to take the pot down here because I feel its likely I have the best hand.

Easiest quiz question ever!

You obviously shove all in and pray for a call because you know the 9 is coming on the river.

Duh.