Villain is a 39/10.53/2.33 over 200 hands

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $41.45
UTG+1: $130.05
MP1: $19.90
MP2: $49.50
Hero: $90.55
Button: $43.45
SB: $8.75
BB: $29.90

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is CO with K K
UTG raises to $1.5, 3 folds, Hero raises to $4.5, 3 folds, UTG raises to $10.5, Hero calls.

Flop: Q 5 2 ($21.75, 2 players)
UTG bets $13.5, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $13.5 returned to UTG.

Results:
Final pot: $21.75


First thought: Why not push with KK? For one, I don't like pushing after a 3 bet with KK. It seems that you make a lot of worse hands fold and only get called by AA. I want TT-QQ to think they are good on a 7 high flop. Yes, I will *generally* pay off aces.

Second thought: Why I folded the flop: The only hands I can see 3-betting me pre-flop are AA, QQ and AK and very seldom a lessor pair. My distribution would be AA - 30%, QQ - 30%, AK - 25%, 99-JJ - 15%. That being the case, I don't beat a whole lot here and the pot is too big to "see where I'm at." If I raise, I'm in it for his entire stack.

Thoughts on any and all streets?

I love it all.

EDIT: I don't know how to interpret PT stats.

First off....re-raise more preflop, but thats not really the issue here.


I think a player with his stats has a larger 3betting range than just AA,QQ and AK.
dont be so quick to rule out JJ,TT,and even AQs. Ive definitley seen stranger things happen.

Really i think this all comes down to your read on him. If you've seen him overplay some hands in the past or something that would really help your cause here.

Personally, i think i'd raise and play for his stack. and make a note of whatever he shows down. But then again i dont play much full ring, and I probably stack off too much with just one pair

Its probably a good fold, but I dont think showing down KK here would be a horrible play either.

If you're not gonna call his bet and play for the stack on this safe of a flop, then don't bother calling his 3-bet pf. Fold it right there, post about how amazing your read was, get flamed by the never fold KK crowd, and move on.

Once you call his 3 bet, you're in for the long run. If an ace flops, that's different, but on this board, once you called preflop, shovvvvvvvvvvvvvel.

your analysis is good, but

39/10.53/2.33

makes this a flop push for me.

against those stats, the 3-bet hand range is wider.

Could someone translate the PT stats for me because I am an r tard.

39/10.53/2.33

39 - % of times villain voluntarily puts $ in the pot
10.53 - % of times villain raises pf
2.33 - total aggression factor. passive < 2 < aggressive (generally)

in plain english - this villain is fairly aggressive and even looser.

PT stats 39/10/2 the first number is the % of hands he willingly plays preflop.
the second number is the % of hands he raises preflop and the last number is his "agression factor" basically the higher it is the more agressive he is.

If we are gonna fold the flop bet on a Q high board with 2 spades holding the K spades, you might as well fold to the reraise preflop. Seriously this is awfully weak, especailly against an agg. I don't mind preflop but my chips are going in on this flop almost every time.

39% VPIP does seem quite high compared to others I have seen. Against someone that loose I think I put it all in on the flop. He could have AK, JJ or AQ.

Against a 'normal' player I like folding the flop because you are normally against AA-QQ.

The problem is that I don't have an amazing read.

He's a donk, but he's not an over-aggressive donk. So as far as his 3-bet from UTG, I have to give him credit for a reasonable range despite his nearly 40% VPIP.

There are a lot of flops that I put him all-in, but those involving an A or Q are not in that range imo.

What range do you give villian?

I say TT+, AK, AQ

Sorry to be harsh OP but your play is terrible. Let me try to dissect. Please feel free to criticize me or anything. I'm open to learning too.

Preflop. Effective stack size is $41. UTG bets $1.50 and you ONLY reraised to $4.50. So now, UTG has to call $3 and he pretty much knows the range of your hand to JJ+ or AK. So it's $3 more for him to potentially win your stack (actually just a double up for him since you have him covered) of $37 more...that's 12-1 implied odds. Now, if he has a small pocket pair, he can easily call since those implied odds make it +EV for him. Suited connectors are much more marginal, but possibly even slightly +EV. So what you want to do is reraise enough to avoid giving him the correct implied odds. In this situation, a reraise to $6 seems like a good number...a nice balance between maximizing your KK and not giving him good implied odds. If he 3-bets shove, of course you have to call.

Now, he 3-bets you to $10.5 . If he was deeper, I think a flat call can be justified since you are in position. But he's not. And given his PT stats, I think the best play would be for you to shove. He'll likely commit with hands as weak as TT, JJ, AQ and AK. So you should have shoved pf.

Flop. Calling preflop is ok (still much inferior to shoving pf), with the plan of getting it all-in on a non-Ace flop. You got your non-Ace, he bets 1/2 and you fold?? Why?? If you put him on AA, then you should have folded preflop right???

In conclusion, at these levels, UTG's range of 3-betting hands is wide enough such that your KK is a super hot favorite.

Obviously I disagree, or I wouldn't have folded.

He has a high VPIP, but he only raises 10% of the time and he's UTG. Not only that, but he's repopping UTG. Therefore I have to tighten his range. There's no way it involves AQ and very unlikey it involves TT. The only hand I could see being thrown into the range that I didn't include is JJ. But you also have to realize that there are a lot less combinations of AK since I hold two kings, making AK (one of the hands I beat), even less likely.

So, expanding the range:

AA - 30%, QQ - 30%, AK - 15%, JJ - 20%, KK - 5%

Bottom line is that AA and QQ would have to contribute to less than 50% of his possible range for pushing to be profitable. I just can't see that happening. Then on top of that, he folds to a push when I have him beat, and obviously calls when he has me beat. So even if it's exactly 50% I have him beat, 50% he has me beat, I still lose money (although folding always loses money).

Your range may not be accurate her. With his stats and at these micro levels, I think AQ and TT are very much in the range. Also, note that you need to also consider card combinations, instead of just hands period, ie AK combinations are more likely than AA. So if you include AQ and TT into his range, I think will find that a flop shove is still +EV.

he is considering card combos. he says AK is less likely than normal because he has two of the Ks.

but you don't even need for TT to be in his hand range to make this EV. Just including JJ should do it. And with those stats, JJ is probably in there, along with the occasional other random hand that you're ahead of.

In conclusion, shove preflop. Shove flop.

change the Q to

1) J
2) T

now whats ur flop play

Shove flop.

Shove and shove

QQ just as likely as JJ for Villian IMO