Situation: WSOP ME satellite at BugsysClub on Sunday. 235 entrants, 10k in chips each. 20 minute levels. 10k seat + $700 in cash for 1st, 2nd gets $450, 3rd $300.

7 hours later its down to final 3. Blinds are 8k/16k with a 500 ante

I'm in the SB with about 1 mill, Button is shortstack with 300k and BB has about 50k in chips less than me. (all estimates from memory as i'm unable to get the HH, but believe me, its still very fresh in my head). Both are very good TAGs with very good instincts.

Button makes it 55k to go. I look over and see a shiny 4 3 . I Call and BB Calls. Yey, we get to see a flop.

6 6 5

Its checked around to the button, who puts in a 75k bet. I call and so does BB (alarm bells go off...A6? 7s? 8s?). The turn brings the most beautiful card I've seen in a long time..

2

I check, BB takes awhile then finally checks, button immediately goes all in for about 150k. I call and BB flat calls. (more alarm bells)

River brings an offsuit 9.

I bet ~150k, BB raises another 350k.

Uh oh.

Am I justified in being worried here? Is it plainly obvious that one of them has a boat? I know I can't fold in this spot, but can i raise and maybe end it all right now?

I want some honest opinions based on the situation, not outcome, so I won't post the results yet, but whats your move here?


Edit: I messed up where the button went all in. Originally I thought it was on the river, but a buddy who was watching just corrected me. Maybe not as fresh as i thought :wink: .

what was the buy in?

10K chips.....? thats a ton for online. damn

Do you have to call? I think you might even get shown 7-8 here by the BB.

The turn check by the button is strange, he might have filled up right there?

Very tough call......


On paper, I think you have to call...pot's too big, and your too strong. My gut says your beat, the logic in folding would be to hope the Button goes bust and you save some chips for a 10K heads up match......

gun to my head.....fold, your playing for 10K. You will find better spots then a 3 way-river bet fest, with one all-in, a re-raise all on a pair board without the nut straight......

It was free...sort of. Bugsys runs a 3 round promotion where every day there is a couple $2 Round 1 tournaments. Top 5 from each of those gets thier share of that tournaments prize pool plus a free entry into a Round 2 tournament. There's 8 $10 Round 2 events each weekend where the top 4 get invites into one of 4 Round 3 tournaments. If you place in the top 4 in 4 seperate Round 2s you can play all 4 Round 3s. Each round 3 winner gets paid entry into the wsop main event. That's how Mattias Andersson won his way into the 04 wsop.

http://www.bugsysclub.com/club/poker/wsop-2005.htm for more info. Act now and get a free corn baller.



True, but blinds start at 25/50.

Nice post...a very interesting hand. I fold. I think you are beat here and shouldn't call, despite the 4 to 1 pot odds.

You've only committed ~25% of your stack, and the BB is very strong here, and will likely knock out the button. Since your read is that he's a very good TAG with very good instincts, I narrow him to 3 possible hands (55,78, or 66)). IMO, his betting pattern doesn't indicate anything else.

If the button is knocked out, you go heads up with relatively close chip stacks. If the button doubles up, you are still in good chip position. If you call here and lose to the BB, you are in bad shape chipwise for heads up play.

Two more things indicated great strength for the BB. His pause before calling on the turn tends to indicate strength, not "in the tank" thinking. Also, his re-raise amount on the river is very calculated. Makes it look like he's trying to bet an amount that he knows you will call.

I'm eagerly awaiting further opinions and the results.

Definitely an interesting situation.

I agreewith the general analysis, that being "The math says call but sometimes you have to say **** the math."

The way the button played doesn't particularly worry me; I think he was trying to take it down on the flop, or bet with the intention of pushing in on the turn no matter what fell (He being close to pot-committed at that point). Like you, it's BB I'm concerned about. He calls on the flop, calls again on the turn, and finally raises you on the river. It's possible he was setting up to make a play at you on the river, but I don't think he's bluffing at you to basically win 150K.

If he has a pocket pair of anything on the board, he's filled up and/or made quads. 6(card on board) also gives him the boat. A 78 (Unlikely, but maybe it's sooooooted) gives him a higher straight.

In short, fold and wait until you're absolutely sure you have him to call.

Thanks to those who responded. I'm surprised some people say fold.

My thoughts are that since its basically a winner take all event, I think I HAVE to call here. If i fold i'm down to ~725k and the BB has an easy 1.6 mill for heads up. If I call and am wrong, its "only" ~500k to ~1.8 mill. If I call and am right that he only has trips, I take a commanding lead and an awesome shot at winning the seat. Not to mention the pot odds.

Well, I called and he had A-6. I took some guff from the rail and a couple friends about just calling in that spot, but I don't see how I can raise on that board.

Looking back, I wish I had doubled the all in on the turn to avoid this situation. If he had re-raised me allin and had 55, 66, 22 or 56, so be it, I took my shot.