Hero[2c Ad] on button

Hero raises $30 to $60
bighand101: folds
BB: raises $30 to $90
Hero: calls $30
*** FLOP *** [2s 5c 8d]
BB: bets $30
Hero: calls $30
*** TURN *** [2s 5c 8d] [6c]
BB: bets $60
Hero: calls $60
*** RIVER *** [2s 5c 8d 6c] [9h]
BB: checks
Hero: ??

Any value in a bet or to thin. No read on villain

I check river.. but I would have raised the flop.

I think u're actually good there w/a bet, it looks like AK/AQ/AJ

If you bet this river I don't really see it being as a bluff.. Doubt he'd fold a pair.

But he almost always calls with Ace high.

We just gotta do some card combo math.

We only gotta be good here 1/7 times if he always calls. It'll be less than that really if we can fold some hands we don't beat, although, I doubt we do. We do however, probably fold K-highs, etc. Either way, it'll be close to 1/7.

AK, AQ, AJ, AT- 12 combos each - 48 total.
AA - 3 combos
KK-TT, 44, 33 - 6 combos each for 36 total.
A9 - 9 combos
A8 - 9 combos

We beat 48, we lose to 57 (48/48+57 = 45.7%). Obv, it's a value bet if he will always call with A-high, and will c/c his big pairs, or tp type hands here, and pocket pairs.

Disclaimer - Not sure if I do the card combo math right, so prepare to have Actuary come in and tear this apart.

I'm just saying that it can't be a bluff because he never or almost never folds a hand better than ours. However, if Zach's calculations are right then it's a good Value bet. Obv depends if he'll call with A high.

Yes
OP's question is whether or not a bet can be made here for value.
Since we are assuming Villain has a strong chance of calling down a bet with Ace high, we may also assume he will call down with everything that beats us.




I'm confused.
What does 1/7 refer to?

A bet/fold value bet here on the river would need to work > 1/2 of the time that Villain calls to show profit.



While I always appreciate your efforts in calculations, I don't think this combo counting will accurately tell us what to do.

- Some of these combos are significantly more/less likely to occur than others.
ex: Villain rarely has an overpair or a set here after he checks the river.
- Other combos exist as well.
ex: Anything with a 2,5,6,8,9 or other pocket pair will be calling us down.





I love value betting rivers.
And I've done this against a few select opponents when I have a specific read.
But since I imagine Villain is calling down with any piece and not calling down with every Ace, I probably check down my bottom pair here more often than not.


--CM

CM,

My above calculations look like a weak attempt at 6am...

Take from that what you want...lol.

I warned you guys.

i really think u should bet the river

if he has a pocketpair, it's 33 or 44, which is certainly reasonable for bb to 3bet with but he's also going to 3bet the Ax hands as well and we have most of those bet. More often than not u're ahead here

Op is actually asking if this can be a good value bet or a good bluff. I agree with you though, the river bet can't or shouldn't be a bluff.

Yea title was bad. At first I thought maybe I could fold a 33 or 44 type hand but its way to unlikely for this to ever work as a bluff.

So in the end it comes down more to a value type deal.

Results: Guy had KK and called my bet. I ran him over later though so its all good

Pretty weirdly played KK there, glad you ran over him

lol love people who slow play kings, and wonder why they lose all their money when an ace spikes the river or lose to 2prs lol

He wasn't slowplaying, he bet the whole way, and only slowed down on that river because it obviously worried him.