$0.50/$1 NL Holdem
Villian has $111.36 in SB
Hero has $55 in BB

Hero has Q 9

Villian called $0.50
Hero checked.

Flop is 9 6 2
Villian bet $3
Hero called $3

Turn is Q
Villian bet $5
Hero raised to $15
Villian called $10

River is T
Villian checked.
Hero...?

Post flop looked like a steal to me. Top pair, decent kicker, I'll call the over-pot sized bluff looking bet. Turn...well, looky here, 2 pairs. Hmm 2nd bullet from him....I'll raise. Was surprised he called actually. River came....now theres $30+ in the pot, think was closer to $35...I had $35 left.

If i had pushed, I dont think he would have called. if i thought he had a hand, i would have pushed knowning he would call...so tried to figure out callable value bet....Ill tell you what I bet, but what would you bet here?

FYP.

As played, considering your smallish-stack, I would've checked behind..I know your hand is likely good a high percentage of the time, but the board was draw-heavy on the turn and if c/raises you, the decision will be a tough one (tough like it'll feel tough even though you'll probably have to call).

hmm youd raise with a Q as a kicker? what if he re-raised....

was this HU at a HU table or was there also other players?

also, I dont know why u didnt raise the flop with TP and position

no i just removed other the other people from this post. was full ringed table...again...didnt think raising with TPGK was worth it if he re-raised me because i couldnt call.

again....im still learning to be more aggressive, still newish to poker, so will keep that in mind since 2 people now said raise flop

that's actually one reason why you should raise. he's usually not reraising here unless he's got you smashed. if you just call, you might end up losing more money.

other reasons:
- you sometimes fold a better hand like K9
- you protect your TPGK from being outdrawn
- it's a blind battle - hand definition based on betting/raising is more important because hand ranges are huge
- if you're behind here, you really don't have that many outs to improve anyways, and even if you do, you might find youself improving to a reverse implied odds situation. so pricing yourself out of a call (by allowing him to reraise) isn't something that should really concern you.


As played, check the river. He's not calling with 9x. He might have something like 96 for two pair, but that's the only hand you're ahead of that you're going to get some value out of. If you bet here, it's a push because you think you're behind to a set. But I would check.

This will work for my reply also,

plus since you showed so much agression, he might have hit a flush on the river and figures you'llfire out again.

I'd check river also

If he has K9 or A9, the number of reasonable hands that he can beat goes way down. I'd probably check behind, but I think 1/3 pot is reasonable.

I value bet this river almost every time.

I think you are missing out on a lot of profit if you do not.



--CM

This is a horrible idea.

You dont "value" bet two pair in the blinds on a connecting/ flush draw board.

The river brings the worst card possible and you want to bet?

especially after a lead out / call from villain.

You might make 10BB's top on the river vs hands you beat, but you'll lose 35BB's to hands that come over the top of you.

I think this is a really close call. His stack even makes me MORE inclined to value bet because he can't really get bet off of the hand. If he's betting half the pot (good value bet) then he'd only have about $20 behind and the pot would be offering almost 5-1 if the villain pushed.

I think the only hand that I'm worried about losing to (unless the Villain is capable of a c/r on the river with the flush) is the 78 for a straight. I think that given your stack, the Villain will bet a flush on the river, but he might very well check the straight.

If he called the raise on the turn, he's gotta have something. That something could be a draw (straight or flush), one pair, two pair or trips. If he hit the Q, we might get paid off. If he's got 2 pair, it's worse than ours, and we're gonna get paid off.

I think that this is a close decision and I wouldn't criticize either way, but the way that the hand has played out, it definitely looks like you're beating him and I think you should bet half of the pot on the river.

ok, well none of his actions told me i was beat and really he did seem like the kind of player that wasnt going to slow play a hand, so I bet $15.....he called instantly, and then mucked his cards lol

well playing donks doesnt justify the play.

Vs anyone with a decent understanding of the game, a bet on the river isnt so much Value as it is a gamble, in the fact that you're assuming 2 pair is good because u have a very good read on your opponent.

But since this is battle of the blinds, and he called your turn raise, you really have no idea where u stand after that 10 falls.

seriously, anyone who tells me otherwise is foolish. I'll admitt to smart and strategic plays, but trying to claim this as a value bet?
If someone can take the provided info and pinpoint where we know we have villain beat and want to extract chips, please. by all means

That's part of what makes a value bet, is that it doesn't always work. We may get flat called by 78 on the river and lose the pot. The idea is that in the long run, making the bet is gonna earn us more money. (I'm not meaning to lecture on what a value bet is, becuase I know that you know, but this situation defines a value bet I think)

I think that in this situation, we are likely to extract chips and make the hand more profitable in the long run after betting when he checks that river. There are MANY hands that we beat that are willing to pay off a half-pot sized bet, depending on the skill level of the opponent. The thing is, we don't always have to be right and we don't have to pinpoint where we are in the hand. We just need the correct range.

Can you honestly say that given our hand strength and the fact that he checked on the river, that we're not going to be ahead more often than not? I don't think so. I think most of the time, given this sequence, we are winning and therefore a value bet is a good idea.

I'm not saying there arent hands we beat, that would pay us off. What I'm saying is that the way this hand has been played out, we don't have enough info to make this a clear cut Value bet.

(this is assuming we know nothing abotu the villain). Now if he told us, Player is a donk, Then by all means, value bet whenever you can.

We already know hte outcome, so its difficult for people to see, but with a lead out bet on the flop, another one on the turn, followed by just a call when hero raises, this has all the makings of a drawing hand. and with heros strength and our uniformed views of villain, he might have thought he could set a trap by checking. (lots of players will check a river after they made their hand)

Maybe he had K,10 of clubs and is the reason he paid off the raise on the turn, and the final bet on the river.

I still think that with that river card being the 10 hearts, i'd check behind.

if it was a 3 of spades, value bet. etc...

Well, we can fold to the raise, but I agree with your conclusion.

This is one of the places that I thought Sklanksy's book missed the boat. He analyzes each hand independently and doesn't think too much about how they come together for a strategy.

If we bet 1/2 pot or less on this river with this hand, hand much do we bet with the nut flush? If it's not the same amount (at least some of the time), then we are leaking information with our bet size.