Basically, I put the preflop re-raiser on AA, and figured he probably has the nut flush draw. The flop reraise makes me think im up against a bigger made hand and a better drawing hand. I have backdoor nut low draw, Jack hi flush draw, and gut shot straight draw, along with TPTK...


PokerStars Game #6882379499: Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2006/11/03 - 20:06:13 (ET)
Table 'Umbriel IV' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 3: perfessa ($51.05 in chips)
Seat 4: LECCESE ($55.70 in chips)
Seat 5: DVEIGHT8 ($38.85 in chips)
Seat 6: Davetptg ($95.85 in chips)
Seat 7: rocco2375 ($41.55 in chips)
Seat 8: leeee ($141.35 in chips)
Seat 9: jjgoldy5 ($105.25 in chips)
perfessa: posts small blind $0.50
LECCESE: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jjgoldy5 [2h Qd Jh Ac]
DVEIGHT8: folds
Davetptg: folds
rocco2375: calls $1
leeee: folds
jjgoldy5: raises $3 to $4
perfessa: raises $3 to $7
LECCESE: folds
rocco2375: calls $6
jjgoldy5: calls $3
*** FLOP *** [Qh Tc 7h]
perfessa: bets $20.90
rocco2375: raises $13.65 to $34.55 and is all-in
jjgoldy5: folds

fine by me.

Q: if you have hearts, do you call? i do, unless the draw is worse than 10-high.


2p is likely the shove here, i'd say so we can be pretty sure our A, J, and K outs are good most of the time for the high. with hearts that makes this easy in my book, but without, not so much. the possibility of a set or AA killing our A outs is too much to risk so many chips for such a relatively small pot.

I did have hearts, Jh, 2h... so you think I should call?

My thinking was I could either hit running low cards for half the pot, or a King for the whole pot...I figured hearts werent outs, and my made hand was beaten already... but i guess if you think jacks and 2s are outs this makes this a call 3-way.

sorry, i spaced on the hearts. here's a full-on analysis of what i'd think about in your spot. it's a bit overly-mathematical, but i think it will show why we should call with hearts here. the first part is hand-specific, but the second part is probably a good formal way of analyzing a lot of o8 decisions (i use it myself).

i also just woke up and haven't had coffee yet, so my apologies if this sounds overly convoluted.

i think we agree that perfessa has AA, right? if he does, then there's a 2/3 chance that he has the Ah, and then there's roughly another 3/5 (with your hearts) that he has another heart. maybe slightly more, but i don't think people at these limits are often paying enough attention to redraws, so i wouldn't factor that in here. that's about a 40% chance that he's drawing higher, which is significantly less likely to hit with at least 6 hearts accounted for. so if our hearts are good, then we have a lot of non-hearts spoken for, but if they're not, we have a lot of hearts spoken for. that's a good thing about drawing to flushes in o8--since most cards are dealt, putting people on flush draws or not really helps you figure out the true odds of whether your draw will get there.

the question is, really, what does rocco have? now as played, he's putting perfessa on AA too, which means his reraising range here could be really, really wide. he could have a queen and a draw, a wrap draw, hearts, whatever, but i think the key here is that it's very likely that he's shoving a lot of hands that we are NOT bad off against. we have a queen and a redraw to a higher 2p on aces or jacks (about 24% equity, maybe 16-18% is better considering AA possibility above) if he has 2p, we share some outs if he has a wrap draw, etc. without being too technical, i think rocco's role in this hand as far as we're concerned is that he's just making this pot bigger without really being a threat to us, even if he happens to be ahead right now. i don't think that much of his range can really **** up our equity.

the interesting part about this hand is that little running low thing we have as insurance. it gets there about 20% of the time, and in a 3 way pot as played, i wouldn't be surprised if that whole thing is clean for half the pot.

so the math guy in me says:

3 way pot, we're calling 35 (or maybe shoving over the top to try to knock out perfessa--but i don't think that works here very often) into a pot of what we can expect will be a bit over 90 bucks at least, often 115 or so if perfessa shoves. so let's say we're getting 3:1 on average to make things simpler.

low equity: 20%
high equity: hearts good around 60% of the time, get there a little more than 1/3 if they're good, so something around 25% equity here is a decent estimate. gutshot outs are clean if he doesn't have hearts and it's not the Kh, so we can say about 12% is a good estimate there. improving to 2p with the jack or ace is good about half the time total (more the jack than the ace), i'd say, so throw in another 10% there. that gives us a total of 25+12+10=about 50% equity for the high half, which we scoop often if we get there.

so all in all we have about (20+50)/2=35% equity in a pot laying us about 3:1, and that's overestimating the likelihood that the low gets there and counterfeits us. math man in me says, "easycall."

but that's too complicated to do in each one of these situations. the way i tend to think about it is (although i play limit, it works not-as-well in plo8) asking myself, "what cards are good for me on the turn?" if i can say a suit, a low to bring me a draw, and a gutshot, that's plenty for me 3 way. HU i generally need a one-card low draw and a fd/oesd to call.

Given their stacks and the pot size, I'm gambling with them a high percentage of the time, just depends on how much respect I give my opponents, if they are donks then get the chips in for sure. Flush draw/gutshot/top pair/runner nut low... too much to fold. The only thing I'm worried about here is a higher flush draw being out.

Pretty close but methinks I'm getting it in here.

Of course you can't call, jesus christ. Not at this level, anyway, bunch of goddam nits below 5/10

I don't like it at all with the flop action

Calling sucks, I think only an offsuit K is gonna help.

And Mute is right, a lot of Nits at $5/$10 below, you're up against at least a set and higher flush draw.