This week I played a $550 buy-in tournament at the WSOP Circuit Event at Caesars Indiana. I was pretty much card dead the entire time, but the final sequence of hands that I went out on has been the source of much debate between a couple of buddies and myself. Here's how it went.

We're in the middle of the 3rd level and I'm shortstacked thanks to a cooler that I got hit with when I was in the blind in the first level. I have 950 left right now and the blinds are 50/100. Villain 1 is a loose/passiveish older guy who coolered me earlier. He's in Seat 9 and I'm in Seat 3. Villain 2 is in Seat 2 directly to my right and has just come to the table in the last round or so. He's got a fairly large stack, but I don't know much about him. The only thing I can recall is him calling a raise to 350, then folding pocket 9's face-up when the board came AQx.

Hand 1 -
I'm in the BB and have 850 left after posting the BB of 100. Villain 1 limps, Villain 2 raises to 600 in the SB (this was a pretty big raise since the standard raise at the table was to like 300 or 350). I looked down at 88, which was the best starting hand I'd seen all tournament. I kid you not, the only other playable hand I'd had was AT which I'd stolen the blinds with about a half hour earlier. After thinking for a bit I decided to fold my 88, figuring that if I move in there's no way I'm not getting called. SB has committed himself and hence 88 probably doesn't play very well against his range. Villain 1 folded also and Villain 2 takes it down. I mentioned to him that I'd laid down 88 and he was non-committal about whether he had that beat. In hindsight, I probably should not have mentioned what I'd folded.

Hand 2 -
I'm in the SB and have 800 left in my stack after posting. Villain 1 limps again and Villain 2 limps on the button. I look down at AcTc and move all-in. The BB, a tight/solid player folds, villain 1 folds and villain 2 decides to look me up with 44, of course I lose the coinflip and it's GG, IGHN.

I won't get into specifics here because I don't want to taint people's opinions, but I think I played the sequence fine. My friends think I should have gone with the 88, I'm not really certain...I probably would have in a smaller buy-in online MTT (but that doesn't even necessarily make it the right play). What does everyone think.

Hand 1 actually looks ok. You know he's reraising with TT+, but it's AK/AQ enough to probably justify a push. You also need to accumulate chips to make a run at the money. Now I would push, but folding seems acceptable given his range and the fact that you have zero FE.

Hand 2 seems standard.

Same here - I probably jam with 88 but it's close in Hand 1, Hand 2 is a insta-push

I think your fold in hand 1 is completely standard, I can't see 88 playing very well vs. his hand range and you obviously have no FE. Hand 2 is also very standard. Sorry to hear your tourneys didn't go well Cincikid : (

With 88

You are betting 850 to win 2000 pot, assuming V1 folds
That means you need to be 42.5%

I set up a range and weights, and get 39%
I'd think it's fairly safe to say V1 would fold, with BigStack pfr yet to act.

So do you fold and play with 850-800 and 7 hands before BB comes again, hoping to get FIV, or take a slightly -cEV play here which can be justified due to a need for chips in MTT far from big money bubbles? I'd break the tie with consideration for your chance to steal blinds. Can you get first in Vig? How loose/aggressive are the players to your right? Oh..yeah..you got that CL fella.
If he's active and table is loose preflop, I would call here. If he's not that active and table tighter preflop, then we could pass this up.

It's close, personally, I'd call.
You have to steal a lot of blinds to make up 1150 chips in the pot now.

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AcTc.

super standard.

they both limped.you probably have FE and probably ahead enough against their ranges to gamble

In answer to Actuary's question, I did think the table was tight enough that I could get FIV or at least be the first to raise.

An interesting point here I think, is viewing the hands in context of one another. My friends who I've discussed the hands with are constantly saying that 88 is better than AT and hence the 88 is the hand that I should have played. However, I think that's the wrong way of looking at it. Here's the thing... if I knew I was going to get ATs in the small blind with 2 limpers on the very next hand, there's no way I even think about putting my life on the line with the two 8's. The situational aspect cannot be overlooked. The ATs push is incredibly standard, the 88 hand is very marginal.

You are right - hand strength is situational. This knowledge helps to separate good players from superdonks. Suppose a short stack pushes in front of you. Well, technically 22 is 'better' than AK but you'd much rather call a push with AK than 22 because you're dominating unpaired aces and kings and racing almost everything else. 22 is either racing or crushed (unless it's A2). Ignoring situation and looking entirely at a hand's absolute 'strength' is ridiculous.

yeah, and you had no fold equity with the 88 hand

wher I differ from some players, is my comment, that while you can steal blinds at this table, you'll have to steal them 7x to offset this 88 fold. And, when you are probably ~40% (and actually, if he's a big stack, I probably could give him a wider range and lower the AA-KK weights, than I did), that's tough to equal, blind stealing 7x.

If your stack ws bigger to pull off some other plays, like resteals, squeezes, CAll-to-Steals, etc, then or course, that's diferrent