While Zach and my play differ somewhat, we're usually not in heavy disagreement like we are about this hand. I had the guy on 88, 99, or a poorly played AK - in consideration of my UTG raise.

Keep in mind, I've played maybe 2 hands in the last 2 hours. I'm half the avg stack - so not much wiggle room. I told him before I called that I felt strongly it was a poorly played AK - he said it was an easy fold. I ran my timer down and felt that I made the right call.

Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

MP2 (t9850)
MP3 (t5817)
CO (t38483)
Button (t23302)
SB (t37925)
BB (t56000)
Hero (t15825)
UTG+1 (t20878)
MP1 (t25019)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T , T .
Hero raises to t2400, 1 fold, MP1 raises to t8000, 6 folds, Hero raises to t15775, MP1 calls t7775.

Flop: (t31900) 9 , 4 , Q (2 players)

Turn: (t31900) 7 (2 players)

River: (t31900) 7 (2 players)

Final Pot: t31900

I would (without any other reads) put him on 88+, AQ+ which makes you a 52:48 dog. Your getting 1.22:1 if you push and its called, and you probably have no fold equity, but you dont need it.

Unless youre near backing into an important prize increase theres no doubt in my mind that this is a push.

Nobody reraises an utg raise with 88. Rarely with AQ. Dream world here.

im going to have to back zach unless i hear some reads, or is it close to bubblicous? more info? straightforward it's still really close.

It's early in the 3rd hour of a $10 Rebuy - so pretty donkalicious still. Villain was playing more than your typical amount of hands, and had seen him overplay AQ/AK once before in the second hour - my read said AK.

I fold. You have to come up with a pretty optimistic range for us to be 42% (what we need given 0 fold equity).

TT with M = 7.5 in MTT
I'm not looking for reasons to fold this.

If I forget all about the M stuff, and raised as you did, I could fold to his raise. I have you about 40% vs his range, considering the size of his bet. You have no fold equity pf and are essntially getting 20,175 for your last 13,375 on a 3-bet-shove.

I shove right off the bat.

2nd best option: Limp, if table passive. See acton, and against right palyer(s) shove/call raises back to you.
Push most flops if HU. Play carefully if not HU. This is for good post flop players or good readers, imo.

I realy don't like a raise to 2400 here
BB is geting great odds with nice stack ( 2000+2400=4400 for 1600) TT post flop is too dangerous to play with M=6 (post flop)

wonder what everyone said....




Even if you give that range, you have to discount a lot for AQ and 88-JJ.

88-99 will rasie more to isolate, or just call.
AQ folds or shoves
This is QQ+ more weighted than the others.
I get 38-44% for us

************************

That's another reason to shove preflop: the hands that call us are worse than the ones that raise us here. Yes, in both caes we lose to QQ; but I'm amazed at how often 77 will call a shove, thinking we have AK and they want to gamble.

I hate open shoving here. I really do. It just seems like overkill. 20xbb is enough to play poker with, IMO.

I actually prefer a limp here, over a shove. We limp, we can call a 3x raise back and perhaps SNG the flop, or we can c/r a favorable flop, or we can c/f and still have enough chips to play. If we limp, and it gets raised and reraised, we can safely fold.

As played though, TT is such an easy fold to his raise.

Our M < 8.

I really can't play TT for $2400 preflop with M < 8.
When we are raised, even all in, we have odds to call.
Particuarly, when you consider we have even lower M, then.

I disagree.

We aren't getting the odds to call here, as played.

Do we all agree a decent range for him is QQ+, AK?

And I think we can discount AK as most would push that instead of going for a raise begging to be called? This play reaks of a big pair trying to eek out value.

With AK weighted normally, our equity is only 36%. With no FE, we are making a -EV play even without discounting AK, which has the most combos.

I think this is a CLEAR fold as played, and I really don't think it's close.

I don't think we do.

I am ok making a normal raise here and seeing what happens.

I also don't like open limping here.

I'm hesitant to play this hand so fast with QQ, never mind with TT. Why would you assume it's a poorly played AK when villain could easily make this play with JJ+? Because you saw him overplay AK once? Sounds like you just really really wanted it to be AK. Looks like a standard fold to me.

* The thought of open limping UTG w/ TT makes me want to curl up in a corner and weep.

* This is still early in a $10r - I think some of you (Zach) are giving far, far too much credit for what range some of these guys would RR with.

* I'm sorry but if you're playing to win a tournament and not just bubble/cash - there's is no way TT is a clear fold when you have an M < 10.

dont know where youre playing i see it all the time, AQ more than 88 though.

no, I think it's too restrictive:

hand combos weight Combos2 WeWin
AA 6 0.9 5.4 0.2
KK 6 0.95 5.7 0.2
QQ 6 1 6 0.2
JJ 6 0.8 4.8 0.2
99 6 0.4 2.4 0.8
88 6 0.35 2.1 0.8
AK 16 0.8 12.8 0.53

When you mutiply the Combo2 by % we win, I get 37.6%. We need 39.9%. When you factor in our post flop bet M, it's worth it too play this hand out now. Note I lowered the weights for 99-88. If I made AK 50%, we end up at 35%. It's personal preference at that point. It's not a cash game and to make a good run, I'd take the <pot odds here with 20k in pot to win.

I don't like 2400 at all.
It give too good of odds to BB
It makes folding to a reraise tough (at least for me)


************8

IQ,
some people hate open limping ever.
I'm not a fan of it here, unless tble is super loose and passive
I don't think that happens too often though; so I doubt I'm ever doing it with our M. I prefer shove by a lot.

*************************



are you leaving the ante's out?
I get 39.9% for pot odds

20,175 : 13,375

Final pot 31900

31900 - 15825 - 2400 - 50 ante = 13625

13625 into 31900 = 0.427.

42.7% equity we need given 0 fold equity.

Am I going wrong here?

a couple things.
I had ante cas 100, I see it's 50...

Pot preflop = 450 + 400 + 800 = 1650

Our flop bet = 2400
We have: 15,825 - 50 - 2400 left = 13,375

When he calls, the pot, excluding our 13,375 =

1650 + 2400 + 2400 (his 2400) +13375 (his 13375) = 19,825

19,825 : 13,375 = 40.3%

hmmm. this presumes a 33,200 pot
1300 more than posted..

450 antes
400 sb
800 bb

we have 15,775 left after ante
He has us covered

final pot =

+450 + 400 + 800 + 15,775 + 15,775 = 33,200

Where am I wrong?

31,900 has to be wrong: 15,775 *2 = 31,550 That leaves 350 for blinds and antess???

A couple of problems with this:

The 31900 is wrong, its 33200..the converter must be missing the blinds.
Hero has 15775-2400-50=13325 to push with. need 13325/33200=40.1%.

Thats 99+, AK almost exactly. I dont buy a range any tighter than that for villian. Discount 99 and JJ by 1/2 and you only cut your equity to 38.7%. Tournament considerations easily make up for the shortfall.

Some thoughts: I disagree with limping, Actuary is right, we are a little too shallow to be limping UTG in this spot, unless you plan to limp reraise all in (reasonable I guess). Shoving also is a little bit overkill, you aren't very deep, but it's not time to start open shoving IMO. I think some people in this thread have assigned too strict of a range for the reraiser, I think something reasonable is AJ+/66+. As played, I'd probably shove also. I think copernicus is right here.

Open limping = bad. Open shoving = bad. I like our raise. Actuary thinks it prices in the BB, but I don't see that as a problem. We would have a good hand in position, which is fine. I like 3xbb here. The only question for me is do we shove after the reraise?

I don't see AJ reraising. I don't see anything below 66 reraising us ever. I don't see 77-99 reraising us very often. I think JJ reraises most of the time. I think AQ reraises us most of the time, but less often than JJ. AK reraises to 8k almost every time. QQ+ reraises like this every time.

I get our equity at a maximum of 40%, which is for all intents and purposes breakeven. In any case, we can't have much of an edge.

I prefer folding in this situation.

Because we don't expect pairs less than TT to reraise us often (if ever), we can replace TT with 22. Would you shove 22 here? I think this visualises things a little better. The equity difference isn't significant enough to make a real difference.

open shoving is not bad.

So, pot is 450+1200 + 2400 = 4050 after our raise

Any callers get 4050 : 2400, with better odds for each caller.
We'd be lucky to get just the BB calling ( who gets 4050 : 1600 here)

How you like A/K hitting flop? It will about 40% of the time.
How you like Q-J hittng flop and he leads out ?

I like simple.

( yes, open limping here is almost always going to be wrong; but for me, better than raisng to 2400, unless super tighty table. In which case, shove is even better )

OK, open shoving isn't terrible. With less than about 12xbb it would be my preferred move. 20xbb is a little too much for me to be shoving here though.

I'm comfortable enough playing TT post flop here.

well, I can't help you there.

"Keep in mind, I've played maybe 2 hands in the last 2 hours"


I would call except for this part that you posted. Is villain the type of player who notices the fact that you've been a rock for two hours? If so, I'd fold. He has to put you on a strong hand and I would increase his range to JJ+, AK+.

If you hadn't posted that statement, I think that it's a call.

Villain's range needs to be 99+, AK+ or worse to make this correct. It is a long term loser versus any tighter range. If IQ's read puts the range at 88+, AK, then the push is correct. So really, this hinges on the read of villain's hand, and more so on how observant IQ thinks villain is, since IQ has only played two hands in the past 2 hours.

I don't think the villain was the type to have been paying attention to much else except his own two cards.

It's good to see that there's a pretty big divide on this hand and it wasn't just me and Zach having the issue.

Anyway, as I said in the original post - I felt strongly that the villain was overplaying his AK as I'd seen him do before (can verify w/ Zach - as we were in AIM as I ran my clock down pondering the push). I went with my gut and pushed.

Villain had AK and I held.

Ultimately, Zach still felt I should have folded because he thought my range for the villain was too loose. I felt his was too tight. We agreed to disagree.

Whatever the case, there essentially isn't a huge equity edge one way or another. I think the edge is against us, others think for.

This is a question of who likes variance. Who wants to gamble on a pretty much a zero sum game?

It may be tEV neutral but the leverage of more than doubling up has to make it +$EV. I still dont think its a close decision...but can see where others might think its close.

Ok, ok, so what did Villain have so we can see who is right FWIW I play it the exact same as OP.

Cope,

how are you playing this preflop?

AK. TT held.

Id want a better feel for the table to decide whether to limp, minraise, 3x raise or push. I would like to get heads up with someone for as much of my stack as possible. If Ive limped and shown down a decent hand (and the stakes are enough that people might actually have noticed) then I might limp hoping for a raise to push back on. If limps have been generally been met with more limps and no raises then Id 3x raise.