1.5 hours into $2 mtt. i've been playing tight, something like 12% of hands dealt. i've shown 2 hands, aces preflop and quad 5's at showdown. nobody wants to get into it with me. the few pots i've actively played i've won uncontested.

villian is also very tight, hasn't done anything silly.

his turn bet seemed like he was honestly worried and was hoping to steal it there, otherwise i wouldn't have cr. after he called, i figured i have hit the draw or i'm toast, there's no way i'm betting him off whatever he's latched on to.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 (t4573)
MP1 (t3437)
MP2 (t6883)
MP3 (t3543)
CO (t5469)
Button (t5114)
SB (t2187)
BB (t2971)
Hero (t5655)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with , .
Hero calls t200, UTG+1 raises to t400, 7 folds, Hero calls t200.

Flop: (t1100) , , (2 players)
Hero bets t500, UTG+1 calls t500.

Turn: (t2100) (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t500, Hero raises to t1500, UTG+1 calls t1000.

River: (t5100) (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

Final Pot: t5100

First thing, people aren't paying attention in a $2 mtt, so your image means nothing. I don't like the limp utg, with suited connectors, you want position. The way it's played, I like the flop lead, disguises your draw. I probably would have lead the turn, in an attempt to control the pot size. As played, just call on the turn. Check on the river is good, with the intention to c/f, you can't beat ANYTHING here.

shove the flop.
not close for me.

Calling Copernicus to tell me that is weak tight
Calling Holyfield to tell me that is ridiculous risk

come and get some

you play 12%, why?

and it's odd you play 12% and pick that hand to play when you aren't that deep. I mean, I'd play it. But I'm not 12%. Well, ok..sometimes.

Actuary, I think a check/push on the flop would be a better line. Villain raised pf, give him a chance to make a continuation bet and get a little more money in the pot. I think this actually increases our FE, by indicating a lot more strength.

well, if villain bets 800, he's getting close to 2:1 on the check-shove
On the other hand, even if our fold equity is less, we get 800 more when he does. Thus, we don't need him to fold as often. And since we don't hate a call, it''s not that bad; if he folds less.

but
I still lean to shoving because of the odds villain has when we check-shove. I want the 1100

shoving flop is ridiculous risk.

you lose value or you lose chips

well, ty for being consistent.
keep betting these and laying them down on the river when nothing comes. Losing the fold equity of a shove here is big.

my reads are good enough i dont need fold equity in these situations.........i know exactly where i stand, i realisticly know what i can extract from my opponents if i hit, i know when their bet is not giving me good enough odds, i know if they have me on the draw or not(when to bluff)

i still have fold equity on these hands, not as much as a push but i can still bet and induce a fold when the situation is right which i believe is something you are forgetting

its still my contention the better you play the worst shoving is with draws.

i am determined to get you on the same page with me on this eventually actuary

well, i'm playing in a $2 mtt, and i'm paying attention. i also stated that i felt the other players were giving me some credit for being solid.

yeah, i probably didnt need to limp here, but i got anxious seeing a speculative hand. i got what i wanted then didn't know what to do



5000 into a pot of 1100? isn't that excessive? i think that would look a lot like i was trying to steal. do you do that expecting a call?

i was trying the opposite of what i had been doing earlier. also i had to sit out 2 or 3 times up to this point. aside from like 4 pocket pairs an an AQs, i didnt really have anything i wanted to play, nothing even speculative.

what is your objective in this hand?

You're also posting your hands for review on a poker forum, you're the exception to the rule. I still think I prefer a check/push on the flop.

i dunno, get maximum value from my hand?

i suppose thats something i should have defined from the start, and also a lot of my problem.

If you're going to not shove this flop, then you shouldn't be playing 89s as you're not getting your maximum value out of that sort of hand.

Your objective in a tournament should be to maximize your $EV.
THat is not always the same as maximizing your ChipEV. But it's close at that stage of MTT.

I think shoving the flop maximizies the money you'll make.

Almost no hand can call you. (many hands that should call you, will fold because they cannot risk their MTT on an over pair here. I say "should call you" because they have pot odds to call, even if they are an underdog to you now)
Almost any hand he calls with that raised preflop is an over pair or over cards, both of which you are a favorite against.

Any miracle set he hit is going to raise your flop bet anyway; and everyone would say not shoving then would be horrible (except Holyfield because he can outplay anyone) , afterall he more likely has an overpair when he raises the flop bet So, we agree it's getting all in against a set anyway on the flop. And with the overlay from the preflop betting, you probbably still have odds to get it all in vs a set on the flop. Only if you knew he had a set should you try to see the turn and river for as little as possible. Trust me, you're more likely to get bet off the hand by an overpair than you are a set on the turn. He just does not have a set here nearly as often as an over pair or over cards. When he bets you off the hand on the turn with an overpair, clearly, a flop shove would be a better play

vs a higher flush draw
Now if he calls a shove with a higher flush draw, you still have 6 cards for a pair and 6 for a straight. So, again, with the 1000 in the pot, you have the odds to get it all in anyway.( Edit: Looks like if we know he has a flush draw with two overs, we actually would not have pot odds to call an all in on the flop..if my est that we are 40% vs a higher FD is close. It still stands that he folds a higher flush draw to a push a lot and he rarely has one. And, most importantly, most reasonable lines are losing all their chips anyway when the flush hits)
If you bet 500 on flop and he just calls with a better flush draw, are you ever folding if a flush hits on turn/river? He'll have 3600 left. Say flush hits on turn. You can play it two ways:

Check and call a bet, hoping he's betting an over pair or representing a flush. What if he shoves? Is he bluffing? What if he bets 1/3 pot? Is he value betting a better flush. Can you really fold a flush Heads Up? Pot will be 2100 + his bet. What does his bet mean, if you've checked to him? Do you know the odds of him having 2 spades the same time you do????

or

Bet your flush to get value and protect your hand against a river spade if he holds a higher spade. So, pot is 1100+1000 on flop = 2100. So now you bet 1200 on the turn with your flush. He raises you all in... Well, you have 3500 left and the pot is 2100+1200+1200+2500(his all in over the 1200) = 7000. Are you folding now for 2500 more? With M=10 and getting over 2:1 on your flush? Villain could be raisng to protect his hand, thinking no way you have the flush on the turn, since you lead out on flop (in a $2 MTT, who knows)

Needless to say, folding a flush on the turn or river would be a mistake without seeing his hand, given the stack/pos/blinds.

Also, a lot of players will fold a better flush draw when you shove the flop. They don't know they are already ahead. They think they have to hit their flush, or at least you have two pair, they think. You'd love a higher flush draw to fold here.

If the pot was smaller or your stack was deeper, I could be persuaded, perhaps, to play this one street at a time. But picking up 1000 chips now is huge for you. In a STT where survival is more of a premium, I have begun to be less push happy. But with this hand, I'd be hard pressed not too take the risk.

My biggest problem with playing these, of course, is the turn when we miss. Does villain have: Overcards? Overpair? (trying to control pot size so he did not raise flop... will he raise a safe turn?) or sometimes a flsuh draw.?
If we check, Villain can bet us off our hand. Pot is 2100 and he has 3600 left. We need 2:1 to call the turn shove. So we can check and hope he bets less?. We can shove and hope he folds. Not a bad option, imo, to bet flop and shove any non spade/non straight card/non Ace. That though requires a good read. Do you know he would rasie the flop with an over pair? Would he lay it down now?
we can lead forv a smaller amount, and hope he folds or does not shove, in which case we have to call.
So now, if he just calls our semi bluff, non shove, turn bet... what do we do on river? Pot will be like 2100+1200+1200 (we bet 1200 on turn and he calls, 2100 in pot from flop an preflop) =4500. And we'll have about 3500 left. Our M=12 then. Do we shove and try to get him to fold? Probably not at that point.

****************************

When you shove the flop, the chips you win can be calculated thusly:

1100 * % He folds + (1100 + 4200 his stack post flop ) * You win at showsdown after he calls the psuh

THere's no reasonable percentages you can assign to his folding to your push or you winning at showdown, that makes pushing -EV.

Like I noted earlier, with a super-duper read, you may be able to bet the flop and shove the turn. Can you read what flatcall means from him on a coordinated board?


*****

Summarize:

Quick analysis will show that your fold equity is an essentially equal or greater component of your overall equity here than the chance your hand wins at showdown. Given your FE is usually higher on the flop (well, or on a flush/straight turn, in which case you usuall aren't looking for him to fold), it makes sense to try to maximize it here on the flop. If you look at the equation you also win when he calls. You lose 4200 when you lose and win 5300 when you win an all in. You will win enough to make that +EV. When you bet 500 on flop, and you miss the turn, you are no longer a favorite vs his range to win at SD. You won't have odds to call unless you lead out. Which is a foolish way to create proper pots odds - unless you bet enough to get him to fold. As noted, that takes too strong of a read and is much riskier than a flop shove. U can check the turn, but then he may bet you off the hand.

oh, and how can I forget.
Against hands that don't fold to a flop bet or shove, your're not getting paid off with your flush or straight on the turn for max value many times when villain has chips left over from your small flop bet. Sometimes you can; but being OOP, you'd have to depend on him betting not putting you on it and not having a bedtter one himself.


When you shove this, it makes shoving middle set nice too.
You can't shove this and then flat call with top two pair. You really help your future payoffs when you ar seen shoving draws.

*********

ok..I wrote a lot.
I should breathe.

FYP.

(good post, btw)

i didn't realize i was the favorite on the flop against an over pair. that's interesting.

thanks for the great post. i learned a lot from this discussion.

Act,

Are you open shoving, or c/r'ing?

I generally go for the c/r push in this situation to get more in the pot, and since so many villains will c-bet with air here.

I highly doubt our FE is that much lower if we do that, even if he bets the pot, he still has to call like 3k into a pot of 6k, so he'll still only be getting 2-1, thus we still have FE against most opponents.

I like this because overpairs are calling regardless, while overcards are almost always folding if we open push. However, overs will usually fire a c-bet, but fold to a push, so we win more chips.

Now, the problem with this is obv if it gets checked through. If that happens, which won't be too often HU, then we just treat the turn as a check and simply calculate our odds, etc, usually a c/c UI.

Cool?

- Zach


EDIT - I didn't read your long post, Actuary, so if you covered this, just say so

I discussed a little with ChrisRichey.

imo, overpairs will bet the flop pretty hard, and a lot of players won't lay down after that. I think FE is less on a c/r against overpairs. Against overs, while we do collect 500-800 more c/r'ing, the risk he checks behind is too great to risk it, imo.

There's no hand he reasonably has here that we want him calling a shove. That's a big reason I don't want to bet 500-800 on the flop. He'll raise his over pairs too often and then we lose all fold equity.

******************8

Lincoln:

yes, we're a small favorite against an over pair.
We'd much rather he folds the flop

Download PokerStove ( http://www.pokerstove.com ) and simulate some situations - you'll be surprised at some of the findings.

You really think we have ANY fold equity from overpairs?

against some players, for sure.
But what ever it is, it's highest now

You ever find those players in a $2 MTT?

lol.
I've only played maybe 3 MTT's under $10.
even In $5 STT's. though, they'll fold sometimes
I know MTT's are more donktastic.

in any event, there's enough in the pot to make pushing +EV.
More so than betting smaller, imo.

I just don't like open shoving for nearly 4xpot.

that was in depth

Yeah, I ran out of ideas. I'm a mathematician not a linguist.

I just think there are more +EV options there than open shoving.

so Does Copernicus
He's a math guy too.
Maybe he'll come and help explain why I'm wrong
Me? I just like to post.
Math is for nerds.

Not open pushing allows us to survive more often.
Open pushing wins more chips on average.
Overpairs are raisng smaller bets, so essentially, same thing there as a shove.
Overcards might call a smalle flop bet, but then when we miss the turn 2/3 times..we?

Maybe 5% are folding overpairs in $2 mtts. We cannot just invent fold equity where there is none. Check raising all in gets more money into the pot as does leading a pot sized bet and pushing the turn. I think both are better plays.

vs Overpair, it's at least as good to open push.
He folds 5%, ok, that's better than calling
He calls a shove 95%, fine, that's as good as him betting and calling a c/r all in.
I think over pairs will raise flop leads a lot and we get it all in anyway.
Vs Overpairs or sets, it hardly matters what line we take.

vs overcards, Im' less comfortable pushing the turn, where I don't know my equity as much. With 1100 in pot, we'd prefer he folds the flop, unless we know he folds the turn. I agree if we let him bet the flop, and c/r all in, we can sometimes pick up 700 more chips. It also, lowers our fold equity slightly vs over cards and pairs.

Personally, I prefer to shove when I know I"m ahead of any range that won't put me all in anyway

You bring up good points, but in this case 1/20 is so small that it is negligable. I rather worry about the other 19/20 players.

I have more to say on this and I think this is a really interesting hand, but I don't have time to explain myself right now. To me, it appears that there are numerous better plays and I will try to calculate it tomorrow.