Keep in mind it is the bubble short stack raised and guy has me coverd goes all in. If i fold I am sure short stack calls . anyway it didnt work out just wondering if people would lay this down. thanks

PokerStars Game #6775122580: Tournament #34492436, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2006/10/26 - 08:49:07 (ET)
Table '34492436 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: TheWizWard (4610 in chips)
Seat 2: xxDOCxx (1375 in chips)
Seat 7: twoplus2 (6855 in chips)
Seat 8: Mazda6s (660 in chips)
Mazda6s: posts small blind 75
TheWizWard: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TheWizWard [Kd Kc]
xxDOCxx: raises 450 to 600
twoplus2: raises 6255 to 6855 and is all-in
Mazda6s: folds
TheWizWard: calls 4460 and is all-in
xxDOCxx: folds
*** FLOP *** [2c Jh As]
*** TURN *** [2c Jh As] [7c]
*** RIVER *** [2c Jh As 7c] [Ah]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
TheWizWard: shows [Kd Kc] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
twoplus2: shows [Qc Ac] (three of a kind, Aces)
twoplus2 collected 9895 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 9895 | Rake 0
Board [2c Jh As 7c Ah]
Seat 1: TheWizWard (big blind) showed [Kd Kc] and lost with two pair, Aces and Kings
Seat 2: xxDOCxx folded before Flop
Seat 7: twoplus2 (button) showed [Qc Ac] and won (9895) with three of a kind, Aces
Seat 8: Mazda6s (small blind) folded before Flop

You got your money in as a big favorite and then got unlucky....BBFIDTS

Don't phrase a bad beat post in the form of a strategy question. If you want legitimate advice, post in the strat section. If you want to complain about a bad beat, then post in the Bad Beat Forum.

How about you dont tell me how or where to post.. Anyway I think this is a one of the spots where folding kk might be a good play even though I didnt do it. anyone with some advice or imput on the hand please respond. Anyone like above poster move along please

It's not.

How about you learn the basic "rules" of a Forum before posting/flaming? Like any other social situation there are norms.

That being said: you are in a tourney to make the cash. Tuff call pre-flop when you are covered and there are very short stacks ready to be eliminated. I think I'd probably make the call, but there is an argument to be made to fold in the face of a larger stack.

KK vs AQ

=

68.19% vs 31.33%


NICE HAND.

Ward,

You should not include results if you want unbiased opinions.

You should not talk to Zimmer like that if you want anyone to care enough to opine on your posts
Perhaps you posted this in General where the clowns like you dwell; and you were unaware of the posting rules. If so, learn respect and come back here to Strategy some day. We don't make asses of ourselves and expect others to help us out.

Never fold KK in this situation. You're trying to win the tournament, right?

I didn't want to comment because of the tone of the thread and the obvious BBV quality, but I have to throw this in: This is a very, very marginal call if villain is only doing this with AX+, PP hands. So marginal, the difference in $EV between calling and folding is probably only about +2% or so, even assuming that hero wins the whole thing 75% of the time when he wins this pot. SNG bubbles are freaky.

If villain's range include KX and worse, and hero can expect to win 80ish% of the time instead of 70ish%, it's much more +$EV.

He should be trying to maximize his EV.
There's a difference.

Thanks to everyone that posted a response its much appreciated.

hi.

ok, now I'll give a response.

I might fold QQ here because of the other real short stack.
Unless ChipLeader is always pushing
I certainly fold JJ
I never fold KK here though. (Edit Later: Yes, I fold. Took closer look and ran numbers. I likely overlooked fact two shortstacks, not just 1. )
KK is crushing AK-AQ and that is a lot of the hands he has.

Here are some $EV calculations. My base assumptions were:

Hero is 75% to win against villain's range (so 25% busto).
Hero gets the first place prize 80% of the time when he wins (he has 73% of the chips in play).
Hero gets 2nd or 3rd 10% and 10% when he wins.

If he folds, hero is more like 35/40/20/5 for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th (he has 33% of the chips, short stacks are way lower than him).

Calling pays $60.75
Folding pays $60.30

I really, really, really want to be wrong here. It can't be this close. Fix my numbers, please.

we're better than 75%
I'd guess.

AA isn't pushing preflop.

There are a lot of all-in PF KK hands being posted…it usually seems like a no brainer to me what to do with KK before the flop unless I’m in a deep deep stack tourney.

YSAPKY

If you really think it is possible to fold KK here, youre retarded

If you considering folding because its the bubble, youre retarded and you should stop playing poker

If you really think saying 'move along' will help get rid of all the flamers, youre retarded

YSAPAFKY(You Suck At Poker And Forums, Kill Yourself)

Have a nice day

That depends on villain's range. If it's 100%, we're 82/17, and the call $EV goes up to $66.42. The breakeven point is a when hero wins 74/26, which is a range of only top 15% of hands for villain. So it is a call if villain is pushing more than the top 15% of hands (which is probably quite likely).

I'm keeping my assumptions for the end payouts for now, 'cause I don't know how to determine them more rigourously.

Holy crap, why didn't I download PokerStove earlier?

just use Excel and conditional probability.
For 4 handed, I have the spreadsheet
Which is where it's most useful, I think.
Not that I ever actually go to it, mid game

when you consider what UTG does if we fold, it's pretty nuetral for us whether he calls or folds too, assuming a fairly close to 50/50 hand vs Button for UTG.

I got about 76% as the breakeven point.
So very close to Briguy.

ewww.
Yeah, after lookng at ranges, man, it's tough to be 75%

I don't think I realized there ere 2 shorties after the preflop raise
Even if UTG dbls thru every time, we would have to be 72.5% vs Button (with UTG fodling after we call) to be equivalent to UTG dbling up
Thus if UTG ever fold or loses, we would have to be 77% and 81% respectively HU against Button to equal that.

So, I weighted it to about 76%.


So, now..I fold.

Deal with it!

i have to agree with this

i cant believe any of you said fold this, that is ridiculous

well....
Are we greater than 75% to win?
Do you disagree with the +$EV of the resulting stacks?


I thought easy call too; but then I re-evaluated.
Remember %60 of the money is paid out after 4th is decided...

I think Actuary is correct. This is a sng, which is much different than an mtt. We already have 34% of the chips at the table, which is a great spot to be in at this point in the tourney. With the two short stacks, I don't think it worth risking no cash at all. It's a horrible play by the CL, but maybe he is trying to take out the shortstack on this hand.

If you really think it's okay to call people retarded, you're a child and you should try to grow up.

XXEddie - Birthday - 2 May 1989

Does posting a big acronym make kids feel smart? And then he spells it out so people know what he's saying?

There is something amusingly ironic about it, and Eddie almost certainly did it unintentionally.



With regards to the question in the thread:

The 2 shortstacks being there mean I fold. In a STT cashing is the primary goal, and you are more likely to cash by folding. By folding, you only significantly decrease the chance of winning, but you increase the chance of coming 3rd or 2nd.