I just repeat "I think i got you, yeah... I think I've got ya" in a soft tone every 20 seconds - glancing up from the board into his eyes each time. I gauge his reaction from this and then make a now informed decision.

Actually, I fold based on...

He's putting his tournament life on the line on the river, with no cards to come. With still plenty of time and chips to operate. Doesn't make sense. Remember the cardinal rule: Always leave yourself outs.

He's representing a huge hand (straight), which he turned and decided to slowplay. Assuming you made it about 3x the BB, it a hand like J-10 isn't bad against what could be interpreted as a typical blind steal.
He gets his straight draw on the flop and checks. I believe he was looking to check/raise on the flop to test you.

That opportunity to find out if you stealing or had a hand was missed but another one opened up when he made his straight due to your gratuitous free card. Instead of putting you to the test on the turn, he waited for the river to really lay it on you with an open push.

THE ONLY hand that you can beat here is a busted straight draw & pair combo such as 10-7s...

Basically you failed to get any info on the flop, so you really can't call the river. Muck it.

The ONLY plausible hand he has here is JT (which he ridiculously let you have a free crack at a flush, or completing a queen high straight, etc, etc)....nor did he try to obtain any value at all after you bet.

Do you think he called pf with 56 or T6?

There are 16 ways for him to have JT.


As far as the "only" hand beating you being a busted draw?

66 - 6 ways
TT - 6 ways
T9 - 12 ways
J9 - 12 ways
KT - 12 ways
QT - 16 ways
AT - 12 ways

you get the drift?

And I haven't even started on all the possible two spade card combinations he could plausibly have.




Are you suggesting that no one ever made a stone cold bluff on the river where they couldn't even beat the board?

This IS where you stone cold bluff because you don't need outs, and you're not worried about your opponent calculating his outs, and perhaps calling on a draw he doesn't actually need.

The fact is we get NO info whatsoever on the flop as to the strength of our villain's hand. We essentially make a huge mistake by not betting the flop and it has comeback to burn us.

Remember, we raised from a steal position... if the opponent thinks we're full of it enough to bluff on the river, why wouldn't he try to check raise us on the turn with his semi-draw???

We definately don't have the right odds to make this call on the river. Tip your cap to him if he was just making a gutsy play.

You still have chips - wait for a better spot. Muck it

This is a slightly different question for each person. If the "you" in the question is David Nicoson, then the villain probably also doesn't know anything about me. If you have a reputation, the villain may take that into account.

It's a question of reads, really. We can't beat the hand he's representing. Do we believe him? On what level is a random player most likely to think?

1. I have a big hand. I'm going to bet a lot of money.
2. I think the PFR raiser is weak. I'm going to bet a lot of money and he will fold.
3. The PFR is showing a lot of weakness. I can get paid on my big hand by representing a bluff with a missed flush draw.

We're in the dark a bit here, since none of our bets do much to define his hand. We're really back on level 1 at this point ourselves. Hey, this hand is pretty good and we're getting some odds (~1.75:1). I hate to go broke calling with one pair, but I think this is a spot for it.

If we fold, we're looking at ending day 1 down a bit (assuming WSOP or similar). It's not desperation time, but there's a little urgency.

I would still argue, like I said before. Why would somebody check twice and only call with a hand like 3 of a kind or two pairs. There are so many draws that can beat him and if not they are at least cards that will kill action. There are 16 cards that put a 1 card straight on board and an additional 7 cards that put a potential flush on board.

Daniel is known as a player who gambles and plays a lot of hands so he rates to often have some sort of pair and / or a draw. Why would this player give a free card?

He could have 10-J. But since we checked the flop, then only bet a small amount on the turn - why would he go all in? Is he really thinking "right he knows that i know he is weak so ill bet a lot of money and he'll know that i know that i know he's weak so he'll think im using that to try and buy the pot and then call with a weak hand"

Maybe I have the answer wrong, but the way the hand played out. I think its more likely he missed a draw or had a bad pair and is trying to buy the pot than he went through the though proccess above.

I would fold. I don't think I could call off most of my stack with just top pair right there. The opponent did play the hand suspiciously though. If he called the raise with suited connectors and hit two pair on the flop, his check to trap makes sense. But if he had pocket nines or eights wouldn't he have reraised preflop to take it down?

The turn call is weird also. The board is straightening and now there's two spades. Maybe he hit his draw on the turn and was hoping to trap, taking a chance that we weren't on a flush draw.

For this question I am assuming the following:

1. If we don't know ANYTHING about our opponent, our opponent doesn't know ANYTHING about us

2. If our opponent has made it 8 hours into a $10,000 buy-in tournament, he knows a little something about poker.

I would fold the hand for the following reasons:

1. First and foremost, I have plenty of chips to survive. I may not be a huge stack right now, but not worth risking it on this hand.

2. I haven't slowplayed this hand to try and win more chips. IMO, I've just played it poorly, so no reason to possibly punish myself more.

3. I have no reason to believe it is a bluff. If BB decided to play with 10-J, then he/she has played this hand exactly as I would expect.

4. his/her chip stack indicates that he/she may be a tight player who might not bet the turn with trips even though it should be bet.

This just isn't the time to risk crippling myself.

Fold, pot odds,(and you only have top pair), make this a simple fold.

He might be bluffing, but I think your up against a monster, my bet would
be pocket aces, he flopped top set.

With his betting pattern it's the only hand that makes sense.

- Called on the flop,(field was already down to 1, and he wanted more action)

- Checked to the raiser on the flop(standard move)

- Slow played on the turn(he probably felt he was way ahead)

- Over bet on the river(to induce a call)

I voted fold but I'm not sure. If level five is near the end of the day or the dinner break there would be a good case for calling. He could have T8, T9, or T7 as well as any number of equally probable bluffing hands. He may assume you will not call with less than two pair. Actually, I change my vote to call.

If you're gonna talk about pot odds you might also want to consider the odds of him have AA....exactly 989:1 are the odds of him having exactly AA as there is only one way for him to have it among the 45 remaining unseen cards.

How often does a typical player smooth call a preflop raise with the nuts out of position? (I'm not saying it never happens, but play the odds here)...the vast majority of people will reraise with AA here, and if they are going to smooth call the vast majority of the time they do it in position, not out of position.

How often does a typical player check/call with top set when there are two spades AND 789 on the board?

What does he think you have where he's not worried about a flush draw or a straight draw?

There are 14 hands that beat you on the turn...a typical player either leads or check/raises all of them, including AA.

Are there exceptions...yes....does a typical player ALWAYS do it...no...but often enough (like 90%) to be confident in my assessment.

You are right about one thing...he's either bluffing or has a monster (set of sevens being the worst possible made hand he has, if it's not a bluff). I've seen no reason to think it's a monster.

I think it's slightly pointless to even begin answering this question. The notion that we know 'nothing' about this player is unrealistic. As someone pointed out earlier, how they look, how they bet, their actions before betting, etc., would all have to be taken into consideration before making a decision. With no information on the player at all other than his bets, I think this is an easy fold. It's definitely not worth crippling yourself over TPTK.

It depends on why we don't know anything...did we/he just arrive at the table, or have we not been paying attention...and, even if we did just arrive, if "us" is Daniel Negreanu, rather than Shpaget, then the assumption is flawed.

2. If our opponent has made it 8 hours into a $10,000 buy-in tournament, he knows a little something about poker.

Like Tiffany Williamson? How many times have you seen a WPT final table and wondered how on Earth one or two guys got there? Huge assumption, again, especially if we haven't been there to see his play....maybe he likes Phil Hellmuth and only got there 15 minutes ago.

1. First and foremost, I have plenty of chips to survive. I may not be a huge stack right now, but not worth risking it on this hand.

Actually, your M is now under 12...and the next level (which may be an hour away or 5 minutes away) your M will drop to 7ish....it's not panic time, but I wouldn't be too comfy.

2. I haven't slowplayed this hand to try and win more chips. IMO, I've just played it poorly, so no reason to possibly punish myself more.

Not a bad thought - but consider how your poor play may affect his perception of your holdings. What he has is nice to know...what he thinks you have is paramount.

3. I have no reason to believe it is a bluff. If BB decided to play with 10-J, then he/she has played this hand exactly as I would expect.

You have no reason to think he's strong...I disagree that TJ plays like this, but if it does it is the ONLY hand that does...and I think TJ usually/typically bets the turn to a. protect the flush and b. extract some value....if he has TJ, he's more likely to get you to call an all-in on the turn with one card to come than on the river with no redraws.

4. his/her chip stack indicates that he/she may be a tight player who might not bet the turn with trips even though it should be bet.

It also indicates that he may be laggy and has stabbed at some pots and got caught, or he's just been cold-decked, or whatever...maybe he had 20000 four hands ago and got rivered by a one-outer, and now he's steaming...his stack size is meaningless if you know anything about him.





That's the key to this question, is following through on a read based on betting pattern.


Tells are nice.

TPTK is nice...or not.

Player history is nice.


But in the end, if you can translate a betting pattern you are further ahead of 95% of the players out there.

It is reasable to assume that you know nothing.

You might have just sat down after your table broke. You could've been unracking your chips as the cards were dealt. You might not have even looked aroudn the table yet.

We can try and assume a few things about the player at first glance, but we really don't know anything about him at all, and that is fairly standard.

The bolded statement is what I think is the most important part of all of the discussion on the hand. If we knew more, things might be different. I just let this one go.



Sweet.

there are any number of ridiculous two pair or straight hands that could have you beat, for essentially your tournament life. if the villain didn't flop two pair or a set, he got there (or to a straight) by the end and looked to be trapping. you have plenty of chips left such that if you lay down you can always come back; you have 1800 in this pot and are nowhere near committed. the alternative is going broke with top top as jamie gold says, which in this spot is just a bad play. fold.

Oh, absolutely.

73 has you killed.

Now if you would care to explain to me why you think this guy has 73, I'm listening.

You're not willing to put him on anything but a bluff. There ARE tons of hands that he can have that beat us. 7-3 is one of them, however unlikely.

Most of the people arguing for a fold (myself included) aren't saying that he can't be bluffing. We're saying that there's a really good chance that he isn't bluffing. If we're wrong and call when he's not bluffing (or even "bluffing" with a hand that beats us, but he might not think it does, which is possible) then we're out of the tournament where we called off a TON of chips on the river with only one pair. If he is bluffing, well good for him. Every good poker player gets bluffed. It's all about picking spots and I don't think this is a good spot to put our tourney on the line.

The pot odds say that we have to be winning 59% of the time to call here if we're going to break even. I simply don't think that there is a range of hands that can account for 40% of his holdings, given the action, that we can beat on the river.

I think that this whole hand illustrates a really good point. In a large tournament field, you're going to encounter numerous players that you've never seen or heard of before. Since you know nothing about them, it's probably best to play pots in a more traditional and up front manner in the beginning to get a "feel" for what they're trying to do. We got tricky in this hand and are now facing a bet for virtually all of our chips against a player who could be the biggest rock in the tournament, or a guy who plays every hand. That's such a huge range. I really think that you'd need to know something about this player if you're going to call off your stack in this spot.

Since we don't know anything, I'm take my "workable" stack and try and rebuild after I fold to this river bet.

Not exactly...I've clearly stated that he either has a monster (ie. 77,88,99,AA,TJ) or a bluff.

His betting pattern has given me no reason to think he's got the monster, but if I am wrong, those are the only 5 hands he has.

There are 18 hands, out of 90 total, that beat us.

I confidently eliminate 73,83,93,33 and T6 has hands he folds pf, and/or on the turn.

I think I'm generous leaving hands like 97 and 56 in the mix, but, I grant that there are 13 hands he COULD have that beat us....7 two pairs, 4 sets, two straights.

Forgetting, at this point, that I think all of them bet, or check/raise the turn...let's say they don't.

I believe there are AT LEAST 15 hands that he could bluff with, especially if he believes you are weak (or are afraid of the ace).

TT, T9, T8, J9, Q9, K9, 66, 67, 55, KsQs, KsJs, KT, JJ, QsJs, QT. I also wouldn't rule out A6 or lower, though I find them less likely.


Now, against that entire range of hands (exluding A2-A6), you are 57% to win.

I haven't even yet considered hands like Ks8s, Js8s, and several others that are conceivable holdings here.


And, btw - unless I'm missing something, pot odds say we need to be winning only 40% of the time to make this call correct. We need to call 5400 to win about 8300....pare down some of my hands, and add T6, and it's still correct (mathematically) to call.



I know what you're saying, and most cases I follow it religiously...I just dont' buy it here.

I'm simply getting tired of people saying, without really thinking about it, that a whole bunch of two pair hands beat you...yes, that's true...but if you can honestly conclude he has 97 or 93, and be right, you're a far better player than me and you don't need these boards. An utter donkey/newbie would bet allin with two pair here...a typical player will not.

You're right about the 40%, it was my mistake that I said things backwards.

I think any 2 pair hand featuring the 3, aside from A3, is just not likely. Hands like 97 though should DEFINITELY be included, and since 56 made the 3rd nuts, that has to be included as well. Both are distinct possiblities the way the hand played out. He might CR with those hands or he might be super passive and just check call, alhtough being super passive doesn't correspond to him pushing the river.

I think that the problem is, with a lot of the range that you assign (in italics above) he might be winning the hand and I think it's unlikely that he'd push. I'd think that he's more likely to check and call with any A, or even a hand like T9. That's just my opinion though. We're all guessing as to what this player's tendencies are and what he holds. I don't wanna guess as to whether I stay in the tournament or not. I'd like to have a good idea of my opponent's holdings before making a play.

cool, i just found out about this place.


anyways, i didnt read the long amount of posts, i'm just gonna jump in on this one.

withut any info on player and its only level 5. lets be honest, thats stil early, but villain sorta short stacked.

Ok so we check the flop, and we make a weak bet on the turn.

Villain didnt bet out the turn after we checked the flop. a sign he doesnt hold a pair. could hold nothing, could hold something big.
I think any weak ace probably bets this.

The turn card did bring a possible flush, and straight draw. 1000 into the pot is pretty cheap,and worth a call with a decent draw.

villain is now sitting with 5400 @ level 5 and starting to think a little desperately.

all draws missed on the river and he fires out all in. Thinking we were weak, the rag river only helps strengthen his case to steal this.

I think villain knows he can push us off with a all in river bet.
It doesntmake sense to not value bet this river if villain does have a big hand. I mean he is only getting called by something that probably beats him.

putting us on a Big Ace or 2 pair is difficult, we played it odd.

I say call, But i'm also not a WSOP tourney player, soo. i'm sure there is a level of thinking here that i'm missing

All valid points - my issue about 97 and 56 are whether or not he calls the pf raise with them...but I've left them in.

I eliminated A2-A6 from his bluffing hands for the reasons you state...JJ is definitely borderline, but I think someone will push with JJ if he puts you on QQ or KK or a weak ace - but that may not be a "typical" player.

Same with a paired 9 or TT, but I do see your point on those - my thoughts are that with all the two pair hands he has here he will also check/call, or lead small, rather than push, because they are true mid-range hands...more so than T9.

T9 can make a lot of better hands fold, 98 can't....98 gets called by a better hand, and folded by a worse hand (usually, as, case in point, I call here with AK, meaning 98 would gangrape me).

I think my problem with this whole question is that there are just too many possibilities. For the record, I'd sooner call his raise with 79 or 56 than I would with A3, as I figure to get in less trouble with the first 2.

When the river comes off and the hand has gone down so oddly, for me (being the unknown player here) personally, I'm going to value bet (read: NOT push) any 2 pair hand, any set or any straight. Since I really have no idea what my opponent is doing (when in fact they have AK) then I'm going to check and call any reasonable bet on the river if I think my hand can win, which basically is T9 or better on that board.

Just because those are the choices that I'd make, doesn't mean that the real villain here is making those same choices.

I honestly think that the odds that he's bluffing here align almost perfetly with the pot odds and make either calling or folding correct. The thing is, I think my aggregate equity is greater if I'm folding because I will still have a chance to win the tournament.

Tough one. If this guy was trapping with two pair, this is a weird way to do it. He could have gotten a flush draw on the turn given that he checked and then called the raise. The river does absolutely nothing for him it would seem and wouldn't scare me given that there is no flush, although there is a str8 draw. He could have gotten his str8 on the turn and slow played it to the river. Any two pair beats us. A weak ace we can beat, but not much of anything else. I think I would fold not knowing anything about this player. Fold is my answer.

I think many of us would be shittting our pants in this spot. how many of you make this call or fold if its a 30.00 MTT ??

I'm always trying to make the correct play.

Yeah, it's different in a $10,000 buyin vs a $33 buyin, but it shouldn't be. If I feel strongly that I'm beaten, or just don't want to risk my tournament on a guess, then I'll fold regardless of the stakes.

That being said, if this was a cash game, he gets called.

I agree with this...cash game is an easy call, IMO.


And I will never call your fold in the tournament weak...it IS very close, and all the reasons for folding are valid.

To me it simply comes down to your gut instinct and whether or not you believe him (and, saying that, if you're gonna follow your gut then the percentages don't matter)....Doyle Brunson didn't call Johnny Moss with J-high on the odds, nor did Josh Arieh fold his rivered flush on the odds. At the same time, we never hear about the jack-high calls that were wrong.

I called someone 6 weeks ago in a 5 way pot with J high on the river. He comments "well, I guess you can beat 8 high" and he tables his hand and looks in shock at how I could call his bet.

Your opponant has K J

You find the HH where DN talks about this hand? Or is that just a very confident guess?

Maybe this is a trick. Maybe it's the same hand from quiz question 21 and we're just stringing him along. We know he has Q J and we're just trapping him.

Just the first hand that came to my mind with this type of play, lots and lots of opportunity on turn, not coming through, so the desperation overbet.

Are we to assume we are ourselves or DN?

ie we may know nothing of villain, but does villain know us?

I think we're an unknown as well. Whoever said we were DN was assuming things. I think that all of these questions are posed as if we were ourselves in the situation.

I would fold because I would not have enough information on how the player plays drawing hands or 2 paris. He could have easily caught his open ended str8 on the turn with the 7. He could have 10 J suited in the big blind. Also could have had A9 and flopped 2 pairs. We never made the odds out of his favor not to chace his str8. Once he his his st8 he checked again to suck us in. We also never but out a big enough bet to see his reaction to thinking about calling or raising us.
And Early in the game I would fold.

Not to be rude, but you do realize that we speak english in these forums, right?

As I said before, this is a call. They key is that this is near the end of the day. Our opponent is tired and more likely to make a large bluff and is willing to take big risks to increase his chip stack in preparation for higher blinds.

You're making assumptions. If you wanna make a statement like that, then it's fine, but you're only guessing as to what type of player they are. We don't know if our opponent is changing his style because the end of the day is nearing. For all we know one of his biggest goals was to make it to day 2. If we knew that, would it change things?

Hi Daniel,

I asked my dog what to do and he said, "First sit down and go over what you know about this hand ....

Step 1: Calculate the M and pot odds.

I assume the $10,000 buy in tournament has a structure like the WSOP main event... (From the website)

1 $25/$50
2 $50/$100
3 $100/$200
4 $25 $100/$200
5 $25 $150/$300
6 $50 $200/$400

Was this the structure Daniel intended? My post assumes something like this....

1 M is the cost to play one round is $150+$300+($25 times 10)= $700

Your opponents starting stack is $800 + $25 + $1000 + $5400 = $7225


His starting stack is $7225. So his M is 7225/700 = about 10. An M of Ten means if he knows what he's doing he for the most part if he wasn't in a blind defense situation he doesn't have a big enough stack to play speculative hands like small pairs and suited connectors. There is not enough implied odds for him to make enough when he hits his hand.


Preflop: You bet 800 in late position, He calls for $500 more..

He calls $500 into a pot of $1500 getting 3 to 1 odds... Pot is now $2000

What hands might he call with in a blind defense situation with a M of 10?

3 to 1 odds in a blind defense situation is good odds.. His calling range is probably pretty wide... Maybe he'll throw away his bottom 30-40% of hands...


If he thinks you're on a steal I'd guess if he's loose his playing hands might be...


I'm also guessing if he had a big pair like AA or KK he's raise us...
He'd call with 22-QQ, Any Ax, Any Kx, Q5+, J9+, Suited connectors down to 54s ......

But your preflop bet is kind of small, If you were stealing you would probably bet at least 3 or 4 Big Blinds in an ante situation from late position..... It looks suspiciously like you're angling for a call...so I would think he would be a little suspicious...

Flop:: The flop comes A 9 8 . The big blind checks to you and you decide to play tricky and check behind him.:

You're trapping with top pair top kicker on a pretty dry flop... No flush and not too much chance of a straight draw. ... You don't reveal the strength of your hand and you don't learn much about the strength of his.


Turn:: The turn is the 7 and your opponent checks again. This time you make a goofy little bet of 1000. Your opponent calls.

Pot is now $4000

The turn puts 3 to a straight and two spades on board and you make what looks to him like a delayed continuation bet of half the pot...

He didn't bet after you check the flop...
So I think he doesn't mind you getting a free card... He probably doesn't think you have a hand since you checked the flop ...

Conclusion: He's slow playing you with a monster that doesn't mind giving free cards ... or .... He's on a draw.

Conclusion: He checked , So if he made a straight he was giving your free card to a flush with 2 spades on the board?... Unlikely....


Conclusion: He checked , So if he made a trips he was giving your free card to a flush with 2 spades on the board and 3 cards to a straight. Unlikely....

Conclusion: He doesn't have trips, a straight, a worse Ace or 2 pair since he doesn't seem to mind you getting free cards..

What cards from his starting hands stated above fit this profile....

Flush draws, straight draws preferably with spades.

RIVER::::::

The river comes the 3 and all of a sudden your opponent goes all in for 5400. You have 6300. The question is simple, without knowing ANYTHING about the player, what would you do?


Well the first thing I do is flare my nostrils, and take a deep breath...

Do you smell fear...????

Of course you do....

He bet 5400 into a 4000 pot.. You need to put in $5400 to win $9400..

Question...

Are you ahead 40% of time???

If he has JTspades or 65spades then you're beat...

Okay now crunch time....

You don't know ANYTHING about the player...

Which means he's not someone you know ANYTHING about....

Which means, He's not anyone famous...

He's not a famous world class player... He's not Phil Ivey or Doyle Brunson.

He's not thinking that you'll go through this exercise.. and then smell fake fear in the air with your dog nose and come to the right conclusion...

He's playing with guilessness. He's not pretending to be on a draw... He probably doesn't think you can read hands like this.

Unless he thinks you can read hands and he's an expert ... this is only 2nd level thinking...

::::::::::::::::::::::::

The river is a total blank... No flushes are possible...
If you made a straight or trips on the turn ...
Would you go all in? Betting into the turn better?
Or would you make a smaller suck bet or a value bet to get more money into the pot???
Or would you check raise.

You wouldn't bet the nuts all in to the turn bettor unless you're a beginner.

If you were a new beginner you might think "Zowie" I have a straight I think I'll push all in"
But then if you were an easily excited beginner you wouldn't smooth call on the turn when you made your straight...

This guy doesn't have a straight more than 60% of time.....

Only decision is ....

Do you want to be mean and toy with him luxuriating in the smell of his fear , and let him stew afraid that you will call, and then pretend that you aren’t sure but bumbled into a call by mistake so that the rest of the players don't know you can read hands????



Or be merciful and almost beat him into the centre of the pot with a call and Scream "Show me your Busted Draw!!!"

So that's what my dog and I suggest is the answer.

Derick

Is it me or did you rewrite DN's OP in as many drawn-out words as possible?

I like how you discount the possibility of him having any kind of hand at all and say "I know you're on a draw and I beat you into the pot" without fully thinking about the situation as he turns over the nuts....

Think of the table image it would build if you say something like "Show me KT of spades" ... and he does...

You only have to be right 40% of the time...

Do a quick structured hand analysis of it....

I showed your reply to my dog and sniffed your answer twice and asked if you want to make a side bet on the answer...

His money is on calling at 40/60 odds.

And he shows 8 9 as he rakes in all of your chips, leaving you crippled and almost out of the tournament...

He doesn't have 8 9

He checked the turn with a 3 straight and an overcard to his 2 pair.

Unless he likes giving free cards to someone who checked the flop....

He can have many hands that beat you. If you're so eager to get your money in here, then you're not thinking about the situation clearly. It is a borderline call or fold, but it is close either way.



Since when is it a $2000 pot? The pot is right around $4000 after he calls your turn bet.

He's on a busted draw or has a small piece of the flop.

He didn't bet the turn with straight and flush possiblities. So he doesn't have a made hand.

He overbet into the turn bettor to try to scare the weak tight players.out when the blank hit on the river.
He's not on a monster, he's trying to overbet the weak tight players into folding, not make some money off his straight.

He doesn't put you on AK, you played it really weird so he has no idea you have TPTK.

You're getting odds to call.. so call.

If 50% of the time he beats you shows you something like JT then fine.. you've made a +EV deciscion

You only need call 5400 to win 9400 so call. (Thanks for the correction)

.

Yeah, becuase nobody in this history of poker has gotten tricky with a big hand...

You know nothing about him. He's probablly not a world class player who is representing a beginner over betting with a straight after check calling a dangerous turn.

He doesn't know you have AK.

The sequence was --- Turn:Check to Give Free Cards On a Dangerous Board...
---- River:Overbet Pot ---

This means he probably missed his draw.

You only have to be right 40% of the time to show a profit...

He might be playing in a weird way (you certainly are) But calling is +EV

Stop playing weak tight, you're seeing monsters under the bed.

We have a pretty strong hand that doesn't look so strong. Interesting...

Folding here is not weak-tight at all.

In the words of my brilliant husband:


Don't stack off with one pair.

This hand seems pretty tricky to figure out given how we played it. I think if we bet the flop and turn and then he moved in or c/r'd us on the turn, it's an easy fold. I mean unless the guy is check-raising with like AQ or AJ, we can only beat a bluff. Given no information about the player, most people don't check raise with nothing, so it's safe to assume we are beaten.

On the river, I'd ask myself if this guy would check raise all in with a straight or two pair, or would he move all in because he fears us checking behind him. Or would he do that on a bluff to make us lay our hand down. If this is a straightforward player, I think it's a pretty easy fold. If he's tricky, it's much harder. Given the way we played the hand, I think I'd fold.

As long as we are playin the what if game, what if he is the type of player who would do this with any two cards? What if he lost 80% of his stack and is tilting off the rest of it? If we know that, it also changes things.

Since we know nothing about this player we have to go on the few assumptions we have. We know it is near the end of the day, we know most players do not want to enter day 2 low on chips, and we know that most hands that beat us do not play this way. Poker is a game of assumptions, my friend, and the best we can do is rely on our most accurate assumptions and play accordingly.

I disagree with this. Many players would rather survive to day 2 than lose all of their chips right at the end of day 1. I think there is probably an even split between those who would rather survive and those who would rather have either a big stack or no stack.