I disagree - in my experience, the majority of players would rather not come back in the morning with a short stack (or the shortest stack).

Now...how they define "shortstack" is probably different for every person....the shorter their stack, the more likely they are to make a "crazy" move to either double/triple up, or be done.

And, it's not a huge majority...but probably 70-75%.

How many multi-day events have you ever played in?
I'm just wondering what "in your experience" really entails.

I've personally only been in four.

My 'experience' deals with talking with people, personally, who have played in many more.

I would never make the statement I made based on my own views....it's based on the views of people I've spoken to, and statements I've heard from others.

Fold. He nutted the turn.

How do you know he nutted the turn?
Were you at his place going down on him and he climaxed when the turn card fell?

Dude, I have no problem with your skepticism, but try to keep it healthy rather than letting it degenerate into personal attacks and inappropriate comments. The poster is obviously stating his/her opinion albeit in conclusory fashion.

Easy big fella, it was just a joke.

fwiw, I laughed.

At least someone apprecaites my sick sense of humor. Thanks shpaget.

I'm not putting my tournament life in the hands of top pair top kicker when I don't have to. He can have it. I'll get him later for his weak flop play.

You are forgetting to realize that he has played the hand in a very odd way for someone who is not bluffing. That is the main reason why we should call.

Fold. Live to play another day.



What do I think he has.... same as others, 2 pr or a set (with a 3).

Let's assume he doesn't have AA, as he would reraise pf.

Let's assume he doesn't have 33, as he would fold the turn.

Now, that means you think he has 77, 88 or 99. Let's assume you have 77, 88, or 99...77 you check the flop 'cause you missed - 88 or 99 you check the flop because you want the pf raiser to bet into your set.

Fine - now the turn - If you have 77, 88, or 99 do you typically check your set again, or lead? And if, for whatever reason, you do check, do you then call his bet, with 789 and two spades on board, or do you raise?

Don't you think all this information rules out a set?

And can't you make similar arguments to rule out all the possible two-pair hands at the turn?

And do you honestly think he has 73, 83 or 93?



Do you think he has two pair or a set simply because those are hands that can beat you...or do you think those hands play in this fashion.

He has played the hand in a very odd ways regardless of whether he is bluffing or not. I could take your sentence and say:

You are forgetting to realize that he has played the hand in a very odd way for someone who is bluffing. This is the main reason why we should fold.

Just becuase he's played unconventionally, doesn't make me assume it's a bluff. In fact, I have very little idea what the hell he's got in the hole.

This is 50/50 for me. The pot is ~4000 at this point, so 5400 is not a gross overbet for a set or two pair looking to get paid by TPTK. At the same time, a big hand would probably either check-raise the turn or bet less on the river (2-3000) looking for value. I don't think TT or JJ would go crazy on the river like that, but AQ or AJ might. I think TPTK is ahead often enough to warrant a call, getting 1.6:1 on the pot. Barely. Maybe with a bit of puke in my mouth.

Also: Is this not the result that was intended by the flop check? To get villain to overplay a lesser hand? Gah.

Well, my first impression was to call but after a little thinking i feel that the opponent has probably a straight and made this move mainly in case you have a pair(or 2) and call his all-in. very often happens in tournaments. However, if you go for the value its a kind of must-call.
brr very tricky.. fold is my last choise.
Gleb.
Great forum by the way.

Seems like a clear fold to me. Calling off all your chips with only (yes - ONLY)one pair is just plain silly.

Unless you are ahead. Then it can be quite good.

Time to fold.

Hands the BB would call with that I can't beat.

A9
A8
A7
A3
99
88
77
10J

Hands that guys like Daniel would also call with out of the big blind that I can't beat.
98
97
87
56

Looks like a trouble spot. I'm looking for a much better place to pick up chips. I'll deal with my short stack look for a better spot.

Alpha

Hello all,
What a situation to be put in. I've read most of your responses. Here is my two sense. First off every hand is a story being told. The AK raise preflop signifys strength or trying to steal the blinds. The BB calling says, he is not strong but has a hand he wants to see the flop with. Most likely a drawing hand or small pair. When the flop comes A98, the BB has to assume we hit the flop based on our preflop raise. If he is drawing from early position he isn't going to bet into a potential paired Ace. The BB checks and expects to call for another card on a draw or fold if the bet is the pot size. When AK checked the BB was probably shocked, wasn't expecting a free card. I think the check by AK also shows real strength in the hand. remember the cardinal rule,"strong means weak and weak means strong" at the tables. The BB has to be thinking his opponent has a A with a strong kicker. He figures if he hits his draw he has a strong hold on this with an opponent who may not be able to let go of his hand. I would assume the BB is playing 10 J. He'd have an open ended nut str8 draw. The 7 hits on the turn and he slow plays the str8. The AK throws out a value, feeler bet. BB calls hoping the AK gets stronger. The river is a bust and knows he has the nuts. He bets small and it is too suspicious so he goes big and bets hard trying to represent a busted str8 draw bluffing the pot. Quoting bdc30, "An overbet push is the new value bet these days". I totally agree. I've done it in the past and its paid off well more often than not. The only other hand I can think the BB could have played is 77. He hits trips and knows if he just bets the river he will get raised and put on the spot. He goes all in and the pressure of a reraise is off him. He believes he has his money in with the best hand. The only hand that can call him is a str8.

In the end I believe he is playing the 10 J and hits his str8. It's a hand that is playable preflop from the BB when calling a raise. It's a hand that you can get away from if the flop doesn't touch you but is also a hand that can hit big if the right drawing circumstance happens. Great posting Daniel. I really liked thinking about this one. I would fold. Too many tell signs of a trap.
Jason.

Try assigning a range of hands to your opponent and not only a single hand. If we could put our opponents on a single hand, then this game would be very easy.

Also, you'd be better off not writing a novel next time. People won't read it, or they'll mock you incessantly for choosing to post in that format.

Actually, I agree with this chickenshit reasoning.

Here are our hopes if we call: AQ, or another poorly played AK and chop chop. A very small range of hands.

Here are our hopes if we fold: straight, two pair, set ... any of about 30 hands.

We fold here and play our AK better next time and hope that the moron plays as badly next time (if he's bluffing).

Frankly, if we think he has AQ or AK, we are idiots.

I also think if we think he has two pair we are idiots.

He is either very strong or bluffing...ie. a set or a straight....and in reality, he doesn't have T6 or 33...and probably not AA and 56 would be a stretch.

And his range of bluffing hands is actually greater than his range of strong hands.

Also - I don't know where you get 30 hands.

There are 18 TOTAL hands that beat us...and if you think he has hands like 73, 93, and T6...well...yeeesh. IMO there are 12 hands that are plausible, and 4 of those that are probable.

However, there are at probably 30 hands he could bluff with here...maybe even more as he has every reason to believe we're weaker than an Ethiopian on a hunger strike.


I've said it before and I'll say it again...what he has isn't the key here...what's important is what he thinks we have.

If he thinks we're weak then

a. he has plenty of reason to bluff
b. he has plenty of reason to bet small on the river for value
c. he has zero reason to push the river, even with the nuts, because if we're weak we won't call

If he thinks we're strong then

a. he won't push if he's weak
b. he won't push if he's mid-range
c. he may not even push with a set
d. he may check/fold if he's weak and check/call-raise if he's also strong
e. he could push with the nuts, 2nd nuts, 3rd nuts figuring will have to call with our strong hand

He doesn't have any reason to think we're strong....he has plenty of reason to think we're weak.

With no read on the player I fold. By the time you get to the river tptk is not as strong as it was on the flop. Playing a vulnerable hand fancy is usually not a good idea and just makes decisions harder on later streets. I've been in this situation many times and they don't seem to have bottom pair or a busted straight draw as much as I would like to believe. You are only in for 1800 and can wait for a better spot. I don't mind getting outdrawn if I get most of the money in when I'm ahead but if you call 5400 here and are wrong then it is donkish.I know when he leads out with the overbet it looks like a bluff but still with no reads on the player I fold. I can imagine the hand on tv going something like this..

player A bets 5400 on the river

phil hellmuth: why would you bet so much?

phil hellmuth: i call

player A shows 8 7

phil hellmuth: Q$# R#%Q #$#$# %$$%W ..... You get all that money in with 78? They try to give it away! I cant believe this is the WSOP. I threw away all those hands because I knew they would self destruct. %@$%$@ % you just hope that one time they dont hit the #$@#$'n 7. I just cant play any better

About to board a plane. Will get the answer up soon.

i was surprised tha most people voted to fold, thats what i said

I mistakenly posted Daniel's answer to #21. Sorry.

Here's the correct link:

http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...c=81276&hl=

love your new avatar dane

Depending on the strength of his hand, some of the comments you provided may be completely backwards.

I agree completely that what he thinks we have is a major factor, however, ...

Ill prob. FOLD cause im not that potcommited anyways!