You are dealt A K and raise from late position to 800. The player in the big blind calls you. The flop comes A 9 8 . The big blind checks to you and you decide to play tricky and check behind him.

The turn is the 7 and your opponent checks again. This time you make a goofy little bet of 1000. Your opponent calls.

The river comes the 3 and all of a sudden your opponent goes all in for 5400. You have 6300. The question is simple, without knowing ANYTHING about the player, what would you do?

It is level five of a $10,000 buy in tournament.

Meh, I probably fold.

I'm starting to hate AK anyways...lol
There are too many sooooted connector type hands that an unknown
would play against a small raise that have us crushed, and it looks like
he's been slowplaying with the c/c line.

Seems in some circles that the over-bet-push is the new "value bet" these days.


edit- and bet the flop.

Fold.


You blew it! Too late now.

He's on 2-pair or trips or......heck, your beat.

Without knowing...I gotta dump it.


bummer....

I probly Call. He check-called the turn, and a random player would likely bet out or cr the turn with two pair - A9, A8, A7, 89, 79. 78, especially without the ace. Since there is a str8 draw on the board its likely he would bet or cr with trips as well. He probably has a pair and a straight draw, like 810, or just a naked ten. He reads you as weak(not having the ace), since you checked the flop and then mini bet the turn, so he likely thinks he can bluff you out of the pot by going all-in.
Of course he could be a tricky player and I've seen some people call the turn then bet big on the river slowplaying a big hand.

I would fold thinking he hit a set. If he didn't and I have the best hand, I would hope he makes the same move later when I have the nuts.

Going to assume that 5th level means 100/200 blinds, with 25 ante.


So, what would he call out of position another 600 into a 1350 pot?

Most pairs?
AQ-AT?
Some suited aces?
KQs?
High suited connectors?

He checked the flop. That's fine...he could have hit the flop hard and decided to check to the raiser.

He checked the turn...after checking to the raiser, who also checked, he would certainly lead out now, if he had trips or two pair...he needs to know if you hit your straight...he also wants to make TT fold (or pay dearly to draw). Even if he's got the improbable straight now he probably leads out to protect the flush draw, and to get value from your two pair or set.

The river is a brick....unless he called with A3s pf, that river didn't help him, and he's 100% certain it didn't help you.

Does he have a hand? No. His betting pattern doesn't make any sense if he does (and if he's being really tricky - and taking big risks doing so - good for him). He may have a weak ace (doubtful)...a low pair (55)...adn/or a busted flush/straight draw.

He's either really strong or really weak...and his betting pattern prior to the river doesn't indicate strength.


The more important element here is 'what does he think you have?'

He probably puts your turn bet as a steal...or a probe...he doesn't put you on an ace, let alone AK....he likely thinks that you have a pair like TT-KK, and can make you fold.

I lean towards calling, even with just tptk....you played tricky to entice him to bet...he bet...call.

I would also fold thinking he has a set, less likely two pair. Not worth putting your tournament on the line here IMHO.

I'll be the first to mention the horrible pot odds we're getting.

Let's assume that the table is 9 handed, which is reasonable.

He bet 5400 into a pot that was only 3925 at the time.

9*25 + 100 + 800 + 800 + 1000 + 1000 + 5400 = 9325

We have to call 5400 and we're getting less than 2-1. We can't be wrong too often here.

I think that the way the hand played out, I have no idea where he's at and probably visa versa. The only hand that I can beat is a bluff anyway. There is no hand that he'd "value" bet in this manner.

I think if he had AQ, AJ, AT then he'd CR the turn to get a little info. The other medium aces beat us since they've made 2 pair. If he had a small A, he'd probably play it like this, check calling, hoping it was good.

Everything points to him having us beat. We didn't invest many chips into the pot yet and we still have enough left with an M of around 10, to have a little play left.

I think overbetting the pot all in on a bluff here is a little unlikely. We only have one pair. Everything about the way the hand played out says he can beat 1 pair, so I'm going to fold and fight another day.

I call.

However, I would never check that flop with that hand.

A typical player won't overbet two-pair here (even if he hit A3 on the river)....he needs to put you on exactly AK to make this a valuable bet...and I don't think he has any reason to think you have AK.

Two pair is too much of a mid-range hand where you're not getting much value from a call from a weaker hand, and you're not getting much equity from a better hand folding.

He, IMHO, is either VERY strong, or VERY weak. You pick which one, and I can live with it.

I personally think he's very weak, for my reasons stated above, but can be convinced otherwise.


I still contend the key to this hand is not what he has, but what he thinks you have (or what he thinks you don't have).

I agree with all of this, except for the first part. If he puts us on AK, and has AK beaten, then he'd make a much smaller bet to extract chips from us because it is highly likely that someone with AK will fold here. I also agree that there's no way that he should think we have that hand.

However, we might be stronger than that, which means his bluff (if that's what it is) is extremely risky.

I contend that we need to fold because all of the 2 pair hands that beat us would likely make a smaller value bet. If he did have just the A, he'd probably check-call or put out a weak defensive bet to avoid calling a larger one. Everything about this hand says that he has a straight, either JT or 56, or a less likely set.

I'm going to go with his hand being extremely strong. When someone pushes all in on a river like that, your one pair hand is not often the winner, unless you have seem your opponent make this move before, which we have not. You invested about 20% of your stack. Don't make that 90%. Just move along to the next hand and hope that he makes the move when you have a more solid holding.

Interesting...If I, for example, had A4 or 55 here, and I somehow put my opponent on AK, I'm not going to push all-in because I know that too many people (ie. a typical player) (case in point...me, in this thread) will not be able to lay down AK here. Not only do I need to know he has AK, but I also need to know he's capable of laying it down. Because of that, I would push with A3 if I knew he had AK. However, we agree that he has no reason to think you have AK.


Now...can he put you on two pair? Can he think that you raised pf with A9 or A8? Or A7? or 89? And then, does he think you'll lay THAT down?

You suggest most people lay down AK? Do they lay down 89, which is essentially one step up? A3?

If he puts you on two pair, I agree that the bluff is less likely, and the strong hand is more likely...I just don't know if he can put you on two pair...even opening from late position, a pot-sized raise with A9 is borderline, let alone A8 or A7, and I don't know if he can put me on it...if he thinks I may have A9, he also has to think I may have AT, AJ, AQ, AK.

I think there's no way he check-calls the turn with 56, and probly not with 610 either. I agree that he either has a monster(most likely 10J) or is bluffing. Why would he go all-in on the river with two pair or trips or even just an ace? He's more likely to make a value bet of around 2k to try to extract some chips. If he puts you on 10s-Ks then this small stab on the river with two pair or better is more likely to be called than an all-in.
The pot odds aren't great but calling 5400 into 9325 means you have to beat him at least 37% of the time. I think we're ahead over half the time here. Imo only bad players or really good players would make this all-in move on the river with a great hand. A bad player isn't thinking about extracting value and a good player wants to be unpredicatable ala Gus checking the river with quads. The majority of players lie inbetween.

What hand could he check the turn with?

Checking the turn is terribly fishy, if he had A3, I expect him to bet the turn putting us on possibly KK/QQ or at least finding out where he is.

That said, I can't call here. Its too weird, I played the hand too trickily, and Experience is standing on my shoulder screaming in my ear.

If I'm in LP of a tourney and the blinds (and antes) are now at a size where it's worth stealing them, you'd better believe that I'm raising with A7, 89 and many hands which are worse. Open raising with hands like this in LP is not borderline at all, it is really standard. You're in position and you need to give the blinds a reason to fold so that you can take their chips.

Your point about 89 or 78 or a similar 2 pair is interesting because you're right, it's essentially the same hand as AK, except that you can beat AK with 78. I didn't suggest that most people will lay AK down here, but what I was suggesting was that if indeed he did have us beaten and had a good idea of our hand strength, he'd bet something like 3000 which is like 3/4 the pot and is almost certain to get called. By pushing he risks losing a customer that might have willing to do some business with him when it is much more profitable in the long run to make a smaller bet that will be called more often.

I just think that the way the hand played out, we might have been too tricky and we don't really know where we're at. We're stuck guessing about his holding more than we'd like and it's going to cost us just about all of our chips to find out if we're right or wrong. I think that the odd way the hand played out is the reason that I advocate folding.

If I have A3 here, I play it EXACTLY THE SAME. Here's my reasoning.

Preflop: Ok, he's in stealing position and he's raising, I have a "ok" hand to defend with, but I want to keep the pot small.
On the flop: Ok, I hit my A, but I hate my kicker. I'll check and see what he does before I make up my mind.
On the turn: Ok, I don't think he has an A because he checked. He might have hit a set, so I'll just check call this bet. If he's ahead, I'm probably drawing dead and if he's behind, he's probably got 2 outs. I don't really need to protect my hand.

That's the logic that I would use until the river. My river thinking would go something like this:

On the river: Ok now I got 2 pair and I'm like 90% sure that I have him beat the way this hand played out. I'm gonna bet like 3/4 of the pot and he'll hopefully think that I'm trying to buy it and I'll get a crying call. I suppose he could have me beaten here, but I think that this play is more profitable in the long run than check calling or check raising becuase I should get called by lots of hands here that are 2nd best.

Personally, I am betting this turn with A3.

F OLD

I call. If he's going to shove that river, why wouldn't he bet or raise the turn? He is representing that he has a made hand, but what made hand checks the flop, check-calls a small bet on the turn and open shoves the river?

If he has the straight, he's played it very strangely. Most players would either bet the turn or raise the bet, and would be far more likely to value bet the river.

If he has a set or two pair, he's played it very strangely. He probably have bet the turn because there are a lot of potential scare cards for a set on the river.

You have appeared weak postflop, and he has to expect you to fold most of your hands to that bet. Your play looks designed to induce a bluff, and if you try to induce a bluff, you shouldn't fold when he bets.

Just becuase your play was designed to induce a bluff, doesn't mean that he IS bluffing and that doesn't mean that we have to call off our whole stack.

The whole idea behind this post is that whatever hand he has, whether we're beating it or not, has been played extremely strangely, as has our own hand. I just think that based on the information, that we're too unsure of his holding to make this profitable given our current pot odds.

When I feel like I am unsure of his hand to this extent, I'm going to fold in a tournament situation with my life on the line. If the same thing happened in a cash game, I'd scratch my head and say, "ok, I'll pay it off" or something like that because I can afford to pay for information and I can afford to be wrong. Here you cannot. There are no more cards to come. You're either winning or you're not and if you're wrong and make the call, it is a MUCH BIGGER mistake than being wrong and folding, IMO. I can be wrong, make a bad fold and still be in fine shape in the tourney. The same cannot be said about making the wrong call.

If we fold, we don't get to see his cards. Don't you wanna know?

I've said it before and I'll say it again, and I'll believe it until the day I croak - I don't need to see his cards to sleep at night.

If I fold I've convinced myself I'm beat...I don't need the visual confirmation.

If we aren't going to call when he bluffs, why are we betting an amount designed to induce a bluff? Once we bet small on the turn and don't get raised, it is likely we are ahead. The river changes nothing.

Why the hell would he shove a straight/set/two pair against a guy who appears quite weak? Whatever he's trying to sell, I'm not buying it.
This can EASILY be a bluff. This can easily be a missed straight/flush draw

If you're sure he's bluffing, you call. That's the whole idea of the post. It's tough to know where he's at, the way the hand played out.

If I had a hand that I could play like the nuts, then this is an awesome river bet. With our raise on the button and funky play in the hand, we are likely to have a huge hand or nothing at all. (This is a weird case where we have a strong hand that is easily beaten.)

If he realizes that we are either super strong or super weak, then his push is brilliant. Let's say he has JT and has the nuts. Well, the way that we've played the hand, we likely flopped a set or we dont' have much of anything. If he's figured that out, then he knows that we're likely to fold our crappy hand to any bet, be it big or little. In the case that we have a monster, we're obviosuly going to call and lose all of our chips to him.

People do it all of the time. They overbet with the nuts because it looks like a bluff becuase they know you're thinking "who'd bet that big if they had a real hand?" It's a good play if they get called. If they fold, you lost a lot of value though.



Just because we bet an amount designed to induce a bluff, it doesn't mean that he's bluffing when he bets. That's a pretty simple concept.

Of course the river changed nothing. That doesn't mean that he wasn't trapping on the turn. You've never played a hand where a guy check calls when the flop comes with 2 spades, check calls again on the turn when a 3rd spade falls and then leads out when the river comes and it was a blank? The river doesn't make a difference, he had the nuts on the turn. People play like this all of the time.

I refuse to answer this question, because we played it so badly up to this point. I'd never ever check the flop in that spot. All we're doing is refusing to put money in the pot in a spot where we're ahead, but still vulnerable. It's a terrible case of FPS. Also, since villian expects us to bet with anything there, we're basically telling him that we have nothing or a monster making it even harder to get paid off if we show strength later on.

I guess as played, I'd have to call the river since the only hand that's beating us is A3s, and it really does look like we have KK here. I could easily see villian missing some sort of draw and then thinking he can get us off the hand at the end because we don't have an ace. I don't think he can possibly put us on AK the way we played it, he'll either think we have almost nothing or a monster, and neither one of those is something he'd want to overbet all-in with even if he did have A3.

OK, I changed my mind about the question as I was typing out this post. It's a good question and it's a call. The point is that villian can't put us on a medium strength hand, he's either going to read us as weak or for a monster. As such, he's not going to overbet a real hand into us. If he's got the straight, he'll C/R the river or bet it small looking to reraise, and if he's got two pair, he'll either c/c or make a smallish value bet. Since he won't expect us to pay off an overbet without a huge hand, the only logical conclusion is that he's trying to bluff us off the pot.

A9, A8, A7, A3, JT, 56, T6, 33, 77, 88, 99, 78, 79, 89

Yup. Only A3 beats us.

Check-raising the river seems retarded since the way the hand has played out, it's a realistic possibility that we have nothing and won't bet anyway.

Agreed.

This is impossible. Even if it is the first hand dealt, you know something about the player by looking at him. This info would help make the decision a lot easier. Young, cocky looking internet player? Insta-call this donk-bet.

You call if this is Dan Harrington. You call if this is Dewey Tomko.

For those who fold...what is your line in the sand? Assuming everything else is the same, what is the weakest hand you call with? Here are the hands, in order, that beat AK - and realistically, 4 of them are definitely not in either player's holdings.

73
83
87
93
97
98
A3
A7
A8
A9
33
77
88
99
AA
56
T6
JT

Same with those who call...what's the weakest hand you call with?

Personally, I hope I can go with my read that he doesn't have an ace, and therefore call with any ace, along with any pocket pair down to Ten. I honestly think Q9 is good here, but probably couldn't pull the trigger on that. Realistically, AJ is likely my comfort point because people play Aces in goofy ways, especially AT-AQ.

You're guessing about his holding and that's the point. The young cocky internet looking player can be the biggest rock in the game. If you're wrong, you're out of the tournament.

I concur. J10 is also a possibility because players love to see flops with that hand, and is a popular blind defending hand.

We just gave him a free card and the turn is the 7s. He check-calls your bet of 1K on the turn.....very sketchy.....if he had a hand like 98, A9, A7, or any of the other Aces, you'd think he would want to bet/check-raise here on the turn.

The turn is where hands like two pair are won and lost because of the fact you can easily be counterfeited by the river, or bluffed out if a scare card comes, so you really want to be raising right now to define your hand. You'd also want to do this with a set, although some just like to slowplay trips no matter what the board, especially since you can fill up on the river.

The fact the flush draw doesn't scare him leads me to believe that he may even have Js10s, giving him a redraw.

Although, I would say that the A98 board is not one I would slowplay, even heads up. There is a decent draw out there for potential hands people love to see (J10,56) and I would definitely come out betting. I want to find out if the villian had flopped a set of 9's or 8's, has two pairs with 98, or if he has a weaker Ace we can value bet him on. So if you check on the flop in an attempt to trap with this hand, you sometimes have to fold when the scare card get there and your villian wakes up with the betting. The point of being a strong post flop player is knowing when you're giving up equity that you will sometimes just have to give up your good but not great hand and wait for a better spot.

The only hand you can beat for a called raise is either a bluff or AQ/AJ/A10.

If he called to bluff on 4th street to stick it all-in on the river for his tournament life on a board that scary (wouldn't he have to figure if he was going to stick it in with nothing or with something as weak as AJ or A10, that he would be afraid the raiser might have the same hand he trying to represent?), then you just have to tip your cap to him and hope he does it again when you have a stronger hand.

Pretty much the same for me. I would call with any ace fairly easily, and TT+ after some serious consideration. I agree that K9/Q9 would probably be good, and I might call with it, but it would be tough.

I would fold putting the opponent on a set or two pair. I can't beat much with the aces and if he's bluffing so be it.

Best --

Burgerman

He may have called the turn to bluff the river...or he may have called the turn on a draw, and decided to bluff the river when he missed...eg. 66, TT, T9, two spades, etc, because A: he knows it didn't help you either and B. he has zero reason to think you have an ace, let alone AK.

There are a ton of plausible hands he has here that give him tremendous fold equity with a push here - especially if he thinks you're weak...and he has every reason to think you're weak....there are very few hands that give him value with a push here.

Unless he's playing this hand as tricky as you are (and, really, for this guy to have a hand that beats you it means both people suffered from FPS here) the only hand I'm worried about is JsTs....one hand. I strongly believe he either leads the turn or check raises the turn with any other straight, set and two pairs, because he has to protect them.

In fact, I'd say it's a little dumb not to raise with JsTs...with JsTs you think he would c/r an amount that forces you to call to give him a little more value....even there, if you had JsTs, would you really check the turn hoping you get bet...or wouldn't you be looking to ensure you get some kind of value?

Not knowing anything about him, you have to assume he's a typical player.

And, IMHO, a typical player leads or c/r's the turn with all hands that beat you at that point....and also folds 93,83,73 and 33.

At that point, you're only worried about A3, which can c/c the turn...but I have a hard time seeing A3 push the river.



Let's assume he doesn't have AA, as he would reraise pf.

Let's assume he doesn't have 33, as he would fold the turn.

Now, let's assume you have 77, 88, or 99...77 you check the flop 'cause you missed - 88 or 99 you check the flop because you want the pf raiser to bet into your set.

Fine - now the turn - If you have 77, 88, or 99 do you typically check your set again, or lead? And if, for whatever reason, you do check, do you then call his bet, with 789 and two spades on board, or do you raise?

Don't you think all this rules out a set?

And can't you make similar arguments for all the possible two-pair hands at the turn?

Basically, you're saying that he has no hand whatsoever?

The way this hand was played screams he has the nuts to me. You checking the flop would tell me you could be very strong(which means DO NOT BLUFF). He check called the turn thinking it was possible you had a set when no full house or flush was possible on river he put you all in hoping you were on a set or put him on a bluff.


Of course I would never know as I fold that most times. The above is how I can reason with myself into thinking I made a good fold and not go on tilt LOL.

Gunn

I don't know if it screams that he has the nuts. You make the right point though, that the way the hand has played out, you could have a monster hand and he's still pushing. I'd be worried with 2 pair. Even more worried with TPTK.

Will someone please discuss why they think we have to call simply because we made bets to "induce a bluff?" I don't understand this line of reasoning. Just because we are appearing to be weak and he's betting, that doesn't have to mean that he IS weak. I don't like this logic at all.

Also, what do we really give up by folding here? If you're going to guess about his holding, I'd rather make the guess that leaves me with the larger margin of error, ie folding.

We can assign only one hand that we beat. That hand is a missed draw. The odds that he would push a missed draw on the river when we might have a monster are fairly slim. Since we know nothing about him and we're assuming he's fairly normal, most normal people won't bluff all in with nothing on the river.

No, but his bet on the river is either the nuts, or it's nothing. I don't buy that it's the nuts. His nothing could be something like 67. It could be J8.

If he DOES have a strong hand, why would he push into a player who has what appears to be a weak hand?


It's standard logic. Why would you try to get him to bluff you if you're going to fold when he bets?

You don't have to call but if we are folding here, we should not have checked the flop and bet small on the turn.

He has absolutely zero reason to think you have a monster.

He has absolutely zero reason to think you have AK.

He has every reason to think you have a marginal hand much worse than AK, and that you are very uncomfortable with the ace on the board, let alone the 789.

People with the nuts (or 2nd, 3rd, 4th nuts) don't typically grossly overbet a pot all-in against a person they think has a weak hand.

Because of this, in his mind, he has an incredible level of fold equity with nothing hands. I don't, for example, necessarily think he does this with A4, as its too marginal in that it could actually be winning, but, at the same time I'm obviously not worried about it.

The reason you "trap" is because you think you're ahead...and until you are given reason to change your belief you are ahead you need to follow through when someone falls into the trap...and, IMO, a large bet, on its own, completely out of context of the other streets, does not indicate strength.

Yes...we could walk away after dumping 25% of our stack (which is our sacrifice)...and I am generally a proponent that a bad fold is better than a bad call...I simply don't believe this is a bad call.

He's either stronger than hell, or has air...and I see no reason to believe he's stronger than hell.



Now, I'll go back to my assumption that he is a typical player.

I also conclude that a typical player can pull off this type of bluff, for his tournament life.

Is that an unreasonable assertion?

We know nothing about this player. You are guessing completely as to what his bet means. If you're going to call, then you are making a guess for your tournament life.

Does his bet not give you pause and think, "hmm, maybe I wasn't winning this hand after all."

It's also bad to make bluffs that don't make sense. People get curious as to what you're doing, and you get called, which is bad when you're bluffing. Nothing about this hand makes sense, which leads me to believe even more that he is not bluffing because it is unlikely that anyone would believe him.

The only hand that you're willing to put him on is a bluff of some sort, but what could that be? He didn't have proper pot odds to draw to anything on the turn, depending on what he put us on. Does he consider pot odds? We don't know.

That's poker...you "guess" based on experience...you don't know anything about him so, until proven otherwise, you have to assume he's an average/typical player.

Could he be ignorant of pot odds? Maybe.

Could he be calculating implied odds? Maybe.

Could he just be a flush chaser? Maybe.

Could he be calling to represent a flush draw, even if he isn't on it, intending to bet it? Maybe.

If he thinks you're weak, he could be looking to:

a. hit his draw
b. see the board hit a four-straight to bluff at it
c. see the 3rd spade to bluff at it
d. calling to bluff the river no matter what comes

Sometimes you gotta trust your reads and go with your gut...and, simply, you never learn if you never screw up.

I simply go back to typical play...and of all the hands that beat you on the turn, a typical player doesn't check/call with those hands.

And if he's being tricky to go with your trickiness, so be it.

I go back to it being really important in determining what he thinks you have.

If he thinks we're weak - and he has every reason to think that - then HIS range of hands increases drastically, including a whole lot of bluffing material.



People do it all the time...they make a bet that doesn't fit with the rest of the hand....sometimes they get caught, usually they don't. Also, typically, a person is more likely to get away with their first bluff...people don't start looking them up until the 2nd or 3rd allin.



I said it before and I'll say it again..I generally advocate caution, or waiting for him to bluff again..I generally advocate a bad fold being better than a bad call...and I generally advocate the ability to fold tptk...in fact, I probably fold it TOO often....my gut, here, says we're ahead, and I have to trust it.

I would 100% call. You sold the idea you didnt have much and it doesnt make sense to convince your opponent you are weak when you are strong then fold to a bet from him.

On the turn, there are a lot of draws. If anyone had 2-pair or better it would be very unusual to check and call because any dimond, 5,6,10,J is an action killer.

Its more likely he missed some sort of draw and decided to bluff on the river because you showed weakness.

You can sell whatever you want about your hand. You've got a real hand, but it doesn't look that way. He's selling that he's weak too, and you're buying it.

Making this point is retarded unless we know that we're good in the hand. Just becuase we decided to look weak doesn't mean anything about HIS hand, only how he views ours.

And how he views our hand will determine how he bets the river, based on his hand...if he views us as weak, he's not gonna push with the nuts, he's gonna make a more reasonable bet, but he will bluff if he's got air...if he views us as strong, he's not gonna bluff, but he will push the nuts.

At the very least, we know that 6-10 hours into the tournament he only has 35-75% of his starting chips (depending on WHAT 10k tournament of course)

and considering the sloppiness of the question, and the non-sloppiness of previous questions, I think the answer is supposed to be either "we can't possibly know NOTHING" or "we need more information to answer the question"

I'm still wondering what was goofy about the 1k bet into the 1.9k pot on the turn though...

I call. You can't play the hand like that if you're going to fold to a weird bet at the end.

Look at it from his perspective, you decide to raise pf then check behind when the ace comes. To him, you've probably have some sort of draw or a high pair like QQ. You show weakness again by making a goofy bet that he calls. He could be easily floating you or he could have a draw. the river card was a blank, that card prob didn't help him, and if he did check the straight on the turn (unlikely) why would he bet so much? Typically a set raises somewhere here.

I call the river bet, to him, you have a mediocre holding and he can force you off of it.

There are several reasons you can know "nothing" about your opponent:

1. you've only been at the table for a few hands...or this is your first hand here
2. he's only been at the table for a few hands/few minutes
3. you simply haven't been paying attention

The bet is goofy because it's a half-pot bet that doesn't make much sense in relation to a pf raise and a flop check (in position)...along with two spades and three consecutive cards on the board the last thing it will do is scare off any draws.

It looks exactly like someone who is weak trying to steal the pot, possibly on a semi-bluff. It's not a bet you make if you think you're ahead and want to protect from draws.

Why? I just want you to explain why just because we played the hand weirdly, we HAVE TO call his bet on the end?

I'd want more information other than "well, we played this hand goofy and he's supposed to try and take it away, so I'm not going to let him."

These quizzes are getting interesting...

Assuming he plays reasonably well, a set makes no sense, and the only 2-pair that makes any sense is A3 (and I doubt A3 would push on this river; he'd probably either check/call or make a smaller bet). Since he's going to have a hard time putting us on a hand (we opened in late position and checked behind on the flop; we could have almost anything), he can't just call on that scary board on the turn when there's so many ways we could be semibluffing. 65 also would probably do more than check/call the turn.

So in my view, the only hand we need to be afraid of is JT, which a reasonable opponent could play in this manner, particularly if he views our flop check as a sign of strength. (By not raising the turn, he can save money if the board pairs on the river, and he can make a smaller value bet if a flush or straight card comes, and he can push on a blank river to make it look like a bluff).

However, without knowing our opponent, he could have so many busted draws here. He could be reading our mid-sized turn bet as a sign of weakness.

Since the only hands I can see beating us are JT and (much less likely) A3, I think we need to call here. There are way too many worse hands that could have played the flop and turn as he did for us to assume the worst.