nomad_monad
Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 11:39 AM
k, a lot of this depends on whether or not we think the villain's an idiot. i'm going by what the OP said at the top:
QUOTE
villain is a noticeably tricky-older-asian guy.
He's good, I've played with him before.
i'm assuming the OP views the KJ call as some kind of brain fart and that the guy is typically good. OP is welcome to step in at any time and clarify things.
if the villain's not a moron, i really think we can discount a Q here, unless maybe it's Qx of hearts. but in either case, the chances of him having the flush on the turn compared to TP is pretty close to guaranteed.
QUOTE
If he's willing to gamble, how does a larger flop raise help us? If he's gonna call with his draw or made hand regardless
Based on your posts, I think you're more than good enough to know why, but I think you're not saying simply for the sake of argument. But for everyone else, it helps us b/c
1. If he's drawing, he pays way more for it and we also cut down his implied odds.
2. If he's got a made hand and
we assume he is a good player that just happened to have f'ed up one hand, he's not leading so weakly with TP - he is only leading like that with a draw or set/2 pair, the latter of which is likely to reraise us. No, I don't 100% discount other possibilities than a draw, but it is
far likelier than anything else. Yes the pot is bigger - but that is
good because almost all of the made hands that he calls with are way behind us.
QUOTE
When I said we have no idea where he's at, it's because we checked the turn. We don't know if he called the flop raise with a straight draw, top pair, a flush draw or what he caleld with.
i already explained why anything other than a draw isn't likely here. could it be a str8 draw? i think 35 is doubtful (again assuming villain's not an idiot). maybe he called w/a gutter - which is again why we should be blasting the flop.
look, if the villain's really an idiot, then i agree, we bet the turn - but it has less to do with "finding out where we are" - we bet the turn for
value b/c the idiot will call us with a lot less than a flush.
same thing regardless of villain's intelligence if he had check-called the flop - there is not much evidence that narrows his hand range for us in that case. the difference here is that his flop action gives us more information to act on. if you'd like to discount it, then i begin to wonder just how much betting information you need from the guy before you start making decision.