Party Poker ($4 no limit). Hand converted by Check Raised hand converter
UTG+1 ($100.86) (UTG+1)
MP1 ($1550.17) (MP1)
MP2 ($131.72) (MP2)
MP3 ($167.46) (MP3)
SB ($427.14) (SB)
CO ($425.70) (CO)
HERO ($135.00) [
BB ($450.70) (BB)
LP ($353.00) (LP)
BTN ($378.00) (BTN)
Can I fold the flop getting 5.5:1?
Preflop (10 players):
HERO raises $16.00, 1 fold, MP1 raises $28.00, 7 folds, HERO calls ($12.00) [5.17:1].
MP1's preflop PT stats are 24/6. In the 150 hands I had seen him play, he was up like $1,200. I make a standard preflop raise of 4xbb with AKo. MP1 minraises, and I cautiously call. Here, I figured him for QQ-AA, AK. Does this range seem reasonable?
Flop (15.5 bets ($62) in pot, 2 players):
HERO checks.
MP1 bets $20.00.
HERO raises $60.00.
MP1 raises $80.00.
Given the range I assumed earlier, this flop is bad. There are six combinations each of QQ, AA, and AK, and one combination of KK. I check out of fear, not really having a line in mind. I think this was my first mistake.
He bets $20 into a $60 pot and I'm not sure what to do. Check/folding TPTK seems terribly weak to me, especially considering he could have AK, so I check-raise, blindly hoping to win the pot. He minraises my checkraise and I feel I'm beat. I doubt AK or JJ would threebet here. My equity against QQ+, AK is about 25%, but my equity against QQ+ is 9%.
Should I have bet out on the flop? Check/folded? Is folding the flop getting 5.5:1 ok (my call will be $7 short of all-in)?
