$20,000 GTD $3+R on Stars. I'm 10,000 below Average Stack, and 200 from the money.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

UTG (t113182)
UTG+1 (t6983)
MP1 (t24544)
MP2 (t58480)
MP3 (t16817)
CO (t7680)
Hero (t29694)
SB (t9107)
BB (t16597)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J , 8 .
4 folds, MP3 calls t1200, 1 fold, Hero calls t1200, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (t4200) 9 , 7 , 3 (3 players)
BB bets t3600, MP3 calls t3600, Hero raises to t28419...

Good push?

I think i like the push here. I dont like the call preflop.

Hero is on the button with one limper ahead of him, and he has everyone in the hand covered.

Why don't you like the PF call?

I don't know. This is one of those situations where I play it "slow" from Actuary's topic.

I don't really like the PF call, but it's not bad. I mean pushing when you likely have 15 outs is never horrible, I'd just rather play it slow here and actually hope to hit to win. We have lots of chips and an M of 16ish.

Actually, our M is about 12 (75 ante).

I like calling form the button here. J8s is a great catching hand, imo.

push is a little od in my opinion

I have absolutely no problem with the pf call.

And the push may be good.

You could have 15 outs, making you a favourite to win the hand...putting your money in when you're a favourite works. Someone with A9 could call you here thinking you're bullying, and though they're ahead now, you are a favourite (unless he has Ah9h).

But, somehow I don't think you have 15 outs....in fact, against both players you could be drawing thin.



Here is my concern - MP3 open-limped pf, and then called a 3/4 pot-sized bet, for 1/4 of his stack, with the big stack still to act behind him.

Did he flop a set? Does he have a flush draw too? Because if he does, it's likely better than yours. And will your push push him off that flush draw? Would he call there with KhQh, or push?

Because of his call a call by you may be better, and see what happens on the turn.


A lot of this also depends on your image...have you showed down a lot of hands...have you been bullying the table? (likely not with MP2's stack)....have you been playing many hands at all lately?

I really think calling the flop bet is your worst option.

We won't lose our market be pushing.
They are getting 2:1 or more to call and M's = 6.

We also don't hate getting the 11,400 in the right now

But like noted before, the big concern is MP's hand.
What is he flat calling with ?

My gut says being 200 from money that it's worth the gamble to push here and hope we have at least 10 outs and a +ChipEq play. I think the TEQ is certainly there when you consider the strength of a 63k stack and a 13k stack is not dead (if we lose)

I've played 2 hands the entire hour: One, to snap off an ill-timed squeeze play by a small blind, and the second time I isolated a small stack's push and lost w/ my AQs to his AJo.

Other than than those two hands, I've been either card dead, picked up marginal hands in too EP to play, or every time I've had a speculative hand in LP it's been R/RR before me and I've had to fold.

The more I think about it the more I agree with your assessment of a call being bad.

Am I gonna call here, turn a heart and then fold??? If so, then I'm calling to hit one of three tens??? Perhaps I call, hoping for a rag, hoping the others check to me, hoping if I push the turn that a better flush draw will fold? That's a lot of hoping.


With that said...can we fold this flop? I'd like to see arguments for it.

How certain do we have to be that we are behind MP3 AND that he will call our push in order to fold here?

MP3 is calling.
What is he calling the 1st bet with than can fold getting at least 2:1 with only 12k left?

I think at this stage the move to 63k is worth the risk of falling to 13k.
vs folding at 28k. Assuming ChipEQ = TEQ if we are 30% against both their calls of an all in, it's neutral to push vs fold ( .3 * 63 + .7 * 13 ) = 28

Preflop limp is fine

I'd have to push here although MP3 makes me nervous. The only hand I'm really worried about is the higher flush draw which kills a lot of our outs. If MP3 had a flush draw, wouldn't he push to isolate against the BB? Cold calling the BB bet is not correct from a pot odds perspective plus he could lose his market if a heart falls.

I can't see folding this

I think a higher flush draw is correct to just call and hope we call or raise

Would that be better than pushing for MP?

If we raise, then he's getting the right pot odds to call off his stack to see the last two cards.

If we call/fold, turn card is a blank and BB jams. MP would have to fold then right (23k/12k or 27k/12k pot odds) and not see the river after calling off 1/4 his stack?

As the MP, if we think BB is calling any push, and we don't have a made hand, I think we do bettter letting Hero in cheaper.

If MP has pair +FD or two over+FD, I like a push

I think tha'tss my breakdown.
I sohuld really work once in a while

Well, I obviously pushed as you can tell from the HH.

My thought process was pretty much in-line with some of yours, in that I was curious was MP was smooth calling with, but I was obviously not laying down what should have been 15 outs.

Anyway, much to my surprise - both the BB and MP folded. That, obviously, didn't help me figure out what MP could have been on (or the BB for that matter) to fold getting such a good price considering they'd each invested $4800 (30% of their stacks) into the pot at this point and only had about 10k left...

But there you have, it they both folded.

cool, we win and no contest

BB could have hands like T9, 98, 87, T7 and has decided he doesn't want to call off all his chips with those hands...he bet to find information, and he got informed. Did MP3 open limp with something like Ts8s and decide he doesn't like his oesd for all his chips, which I can see as he would only be calculating 6 outs?

MP3 is puzzling...maybe he hit "call" by mistake.