1st hand at 200/400

Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Button ( $4956 )
Seat 2: SB ( $3416 )
Seat 3: Actuary (BB) ( $1324 )
Seat 5: UTG ( $2304 )

Trny:29843858 Level:5
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to Actuary [ 5c 2h ]
UTG folds, Button folds, SB raises to 800


So I have 924 behind. Pot is 1200.
If. I call, I have 524 left


Stop n Go ? Pot odds would be 2154 : 924 and he might fold given he's jeopardizing his chip pos vs UTG; however, the overwhelming likelihood is a call iven the odds and the fact he raised into a short stack, he probably has a decent range here.


Push preflop? Well, that saves me from folding the flop and has even less fold equity..unless he's on a pure steal, in which case I kepp him from seeing the flop.


fold ?
Have 924 in SB... hope to get a strong hand next hand ?
Maybe a few calls to triple up+
Or have two more hands at 724 to push and hope for solid hand,


you?


oh and according to my ICM, I have a 75% of cashing when I"m short stacked.

I'd push PF. Really not much you can do at this point, hope he just got one over and hope you hit really.

You have 0 FE. You are therefore calling allin for 924 into a pot of 1724. Do you have 35% equity against his range? I don't think you do. I hate to get blinded away, but I think this is a fold.

Since 52o is a notorious hand at the Thunder Bay Casino, better known as The Thunder Bay Special, or Big Thunder, I'd be down with pushing. However, its value only holds at the TBay Casino, similarly to how the Krablar is so revered on FCP. Since this is on Party or Stars, you probably should fold. Live is an instapush and flopped boat, or runner runner straight.

But this time if I win I get 2648 and am right there to battle

If I wait, I lose 400x2 when I dble thru, ( with only 924 vs 1324 )
Can I afford to pass this up?

No you can't afford to pass it up. The blind is 30% of your worth, it doesn't matter what your 2 cards are at this point.

This is close to a situation that Russ Boyd and PMJackson have both talked about. Where it is better to be all in with your BB being a random hand, than to have pushed UTG. They were talking about when your M was 1ish. If we fold our M will be 1 very soon.

If we get a crap hand in the SB and fold that now a double will get us +100 from where we were before. I think you have to call/push your chips in this spot. I don't even think it's very close.

Can we possibly wait and push the lfop.
Say we call no matter what comes..and push no matter what if checked to.
Does that give us anymore FE than pushing now?


Now that I feel that I can look silly, comfortably, I"m entertaing plays like that, rather than putting all in pf. There is certainly no more downside to that play.

oh..well, unless we hit flop and then he folds.
But any argument that says that, then must admit to some FE

I personally think you have more fold equity with a stop'n'go.

I also think you may be better off folding and seeing what happens the next couple hands...the 2nd short stack is BB next hand, so who knows what may come.

2 pay

I say push preflop. You have enough fold equity over the top two stacks where they wouldn't want to call without a hand. People are probably timid near the bubble to a maniac who I assume has been playing fairly tight up to this point. Don't be fancy, just pick up the blinds a couple times.

u think SB folds here preflop ?

I fold

Its borderline. I think if you play around with the ICM numbers and put SB on a very loose range, the numbers will narrowly say call the raise and fold if you dont catch a piece of the flop.

Despite that, I think I fold here and try to double up with a better hand.

dble to 1800 vs 2600. with 200/400 blinds 400 handed.
Blah.

I pushed preflop of course.
I like SnG better, I think now

A couple thoughts:

1) I think he's fairly likely on a steal here. REAL wide range of hands make that play.

2) He may lay down. If he doesn't...well...you likely have two live cards Either way I don't think you can afford to give up this blind. There is a distinct possibility he did a min raise because he didn't want to play for all of your chips. There is also a distinct possibility he did a min raise with a monster.

I really don't like any of the options (welcome to STT world), but I think pushing preflop is your best option. Fancy play seems less attractive than raw aggression.

Edit: All it took to convince you that SnG was better was me saying push preflop

SnG might work as long as you are committed to it, I'm just worried that you miss flop have no pair, no draw and he sets you all in, which is still fine IMO.

As long as you are willing to call the All in on the flop regardless I think that if he checks to you and you push all in you have some kind of negligible amount of FE which is better than the push PF.

Yup, I know.

Easier to come in 2nd as the shortstack with 3 people left than with 4.

I fold, let 2nd shortstack get dwindled...and see what happens, including looking for a better hand to double up with in the next three.

I had a braincramp and was thinking you'd act first post-flop. If you call here you're gonna have to fold or call all-in on the flop...he's betting any flop, unless really scared....you could still hope he checks and then folds to your bet.

I just don't think you have any fold equity preflop whatsoever.

No way do you get 35% equity, its somewhere between 25% vs very tight and 34% vs random hand. Id actually put it around 31%.

Actuary...you like a SnG. You dont have first action which takes away some of the strength of the SnG, and he is getting 2124:524 odds..approx 4:1, even if you get to push first. Given both of those facts I dont think you pick up any FE on the flop, and you clearly dont have any preflop. Thats why I think the ICM numbers will show call/fold to a blank board. So...make me do the math!

Double up and you have 23.4% prize equity.
Fold and you have 9% prize equity
Call and fold on the flop you have 5.2% prize equity.

Push PF or Sng (assuming no FE on either street): you are about 30% to win, 70% to lose = 7% PE

Call with a fold option on the flop: 30% of the time you catch, push and win 75% of the time, lose 25% of the time = .3*.75*.234 = 5.3%
70% of the time you miss, fold = .7*.052 = 3.6%
Total = 8.9%

So folding up front and calling with an option to fold are virtually the same under ICM. I still lean toward folding..I think the extra chips give you a little better than ICM equity.

Pushing is inferior to both, SnG is the same assuming no FE on either street. what if you pick up FE 20% of the time. With 2124 chips your ICM is 19.3%.

5.3% * .8 = 4.2% from the good flops that go on to win but adjusted for his folds plus 3.8% from his folds = 8% total. So even with an optimistic 20% FE you are worse off with a SnG than you are just folding. (This is even optimistic because proportionally more of his folds on the flop are going to come from hands where you hit).

given that 924/2648 = 35%.
I think it's very close on that basis
I think strong over pairs limp here and hope I push again ( you know I've already psuhed a few times and got know calls at the 100/200 level, working up from 924)

So..35% is close to a wash imo pot odds wise.

Now it comes down to, if I fold

Stacks are:

4956
3816
2304
924 (me)

I push and win:
4956
2092
2304
2648 (me)


ICM is really not applicable when M that low..no time for any kind of reasonable hand distirbution to come my way.

I think givng up the 800 ( by folding the 400 of mine in the pot) is bad.

Plus, you forget how lucky I am when short.

Plus, you forget how skillful I am when short.


FYP


Thats why I like the fold. The longer youre short the better!

And they say Actuaries aren't funny!

Its actuarial humor...the rest of the peons wont get it.

Why did the actuary always bring a bomb with him traveling by plane?

because the odds of two bombs on board is really really low

Be sure to include this thread in your next email to DWS.

apparently no one likes me since I have'nt sat for exams in awhile.
At least that's what I'm going with. Nothing back from DWS

Time to sign up.

Am i missing something here?? If you try a stop and go don't you only have like 524 to push not 924?... not to mention hes probably going to put you all-in no matter what the flop is and if you push pre-flop its only going to be 524 more for him to call... I think he's calling that 100% of the time.

ok.
so push preflop = all in post flop

you like fold preflop?
fold flop?

i usually push & pray, but i think the stop & go is marginally better only because the SB can't get away from it pre-flop after his raise, but could conceivably let it go if the flop shoots past overhead.

you have very few weapons left to utilize, this is your knife at a gun fight, but it is better to whip it out than to just let them pick you off. if you fold, next time you'll be holding a handle with no blade.

I pushed
He called.

25o vs KJs

5 on flop.

I finish 2nd.

See..youve got skillz even when youre not short stacked.

This sort of thing gets me yelled at, to the point where I wonder why I haven't disabled chat. I'm glad so few people understand short-stack play.

This was sweet.

I've never heard the second part to this saying, and I'm assuming it's original but I liked it, most probably because I agreed with the play in the first place.

I'm Italian...so I always bring a knife to a gunfight.


As far as "whipping it out" is concerned...well...that's why I'm not allowed to leave my house for six months...