i'm at final table of full tilt 6500 gtd.. the blinds are increasing very fast.... the table is a mix of solid players.. no real true donkeys.. but there is a few gamblers..
blinds 4-8000 with 1k ante.. so 19k in the pot pre flop.. we are 7 handed.. 2 folds to me and I have A-9 with 62k.. whats the move here?.. I will post the actual Hand history when I get some advice on what some of you guys would do...
payout goes as such.. .7th-300, 6th-500,5th-650,4th-850, 3rd-1115, 2nd- 1485, 1st-2300.... what do you guys do here?
Full Version: Okay.. Full Tilt 6500 Gtd Final Table
how'd you do?
Super bad spot.
This is a push or fold. I push most of the time here, but I don't completely hate a fold some of the time.
Lets face it. Youd like a double. Most hands that call you are A8 or better. But a lot of hands dont call you and bring our stack up quite a bit. This is the time to push and gamble with first in VIG.
This is a push or fold. I push most of the time here, but I don't completely hate a fold some of the time.
Lets face it. Youd like a double. Most hands that call you are A8 or better. But a lot of hands dont call you and bring our stack up quite a bit. This is the time to push and gamble with first in VIG.
As much as I hate to, I think you have to push here..M is about 3 and the blinds hit you in two hands and will severely cut into your stack...Also, there has ben two folds already, so its like your in the hijack w/ only 4 players left behind you and your not at a 9 or 10 handed table, so the value of this hand goes up slightly..I would push and just close my eyes and pray for 4 folds
Barf. I would probably fold, but I'm a nit at the final table. Nobody's calling with a worse hand.
We really need the full array of chipstacks to answer this, though. Was 62K the shortest stack? Middle? Near the top with a horrible structure?
We really need the full array of chipstacks to answer this, though. Was 62K the shortest stack? Middle? Near the top with a horrible structure?
You dont give other stacks so its hard to say if sitting on our hands and letting others blind out is viable. In general, though, push with an adjusted M of under 3, first in vig, and this strong a hand.
okay.. i was 4th in chips.. 2 people had 100k one had 70k and i had 63k... this is how it went down..
Full Tilt Poker Game #1071168213: $6,500 Guarantee (7098668), Table 1 - 4000/8000 Ante 1000 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:28:42 ET - 2006/10/05
Seat 1: WestonPoker (157,476)
Seat 2: ReulFlasch (66,804)
Seat 3: koolkat25 (61,882)
Seat 5: WSOPiCOME (70,754)
Seat 7: TheDon888 (41,204)
Seat 8: LivesWithMommy (63,910)
Seat 9: bvhighlander (119,970)
WestonPoker antes 1,000
ReulFlasch antes 1,000
koolkat25 antes 1,000
WSOPiCOME antes 1,000
TheDon888 antes 1,000
LivesWithMommy antes 1,000
bvhighlander antes 1,000
koolkat25 posts the small blind of 4,000
WSOPiCOME posts the big blind of 8,000
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to LivesWithMommy [9c Ad]
TheDon888 folds
LivesWithMommy raises to 62,910, and is all in
bvhighlander folds
rustyf_uac (Observer): this is a sick game
WestonPoker folds
ReulFlasch calls 62,910
koolkat25 folds
WSOPiCOME folds
LivesWithMommy shows [9c Ad]
ReulFlasch shows [Qh Ah]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 8h Jh]
KappaKid83 (Observer): 9
*** TURN *** [Kd 8h Jh] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [Kd 8h Jh 7s] [7h]
LivesWithMommy shows a pair of Sevens
ReulFlasch shows a flush, Ace high
ReulFlasch wins the pot (144,820) with a flush, Ace high
LivesWithMommy stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 144,820 | Rake 0
Board: [Kd 8h Jh 7s 7h]
Seat 1: WestonPoker folded before the Flop
Seat 2: ReulFlasch (button) showed [Qh Ah] and won (144,820) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 3: koolkat25 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: WSOPiCOME (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: TheDon888 folded before the Flop
Seat 8: LivesWithMommy showed [9c Ad] and lost with a pair of Sevens
Seat 9: bvhighlander folded before the Flop
Full Tilt Poker Game #1071168213: $6,500 Guarantee (7098668), Table 1 - 4000/8000 Ante 1000 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:28:42 ET - 2006/10/05
Seat 1: WestonPoker (157,476)
Seat 2: ReulFlasch (66,804)
Seat 3: koolkat25 (61,882)
Seat 5: WSOPiCOME (70,754)
Seat 7: TheDon888 (41,204)
Seat 8: LivesWithMommy (63,910)
Seat 9: bvhighlander (119,970)
WestonPoker antes 1,000
ReulFlasch antes 1,000
koolkat25 antes 1,000
WSOPiCOME antes 1,000
TheDon888 antes 1,000
LivesWithMommy antes 1,000
bvhighlander antes 1,000
koolkat25 posts the small blind of 4,000
WSOPiCOME posts the big blind of 8,000
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to LivesWithMommy [9c Ad]
TheDon888 folds
LivesWithMommy raises to 62,910, and is all in
bvhighlander folds
rustyf_uac (Observer): this is a sick game
WestonPoker folds
ReulFlasch calls 62,910
koolkat25 folds
WSOPiCOME folds
LivesWithMommy shows [9c Ad]
ReulFlasch shows [Qh Ah]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 8h Jh]
KappaKid83 (Observer): 9
*** TURN *** [Kd 8h Jh] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [Kd 8h Jh 7s] [7h]
LivesWithMommy shows a pair of Sevens
ReulFlasch shows a flush, Ace high
ReulFlasch wins the pot (144,820) with a flush, Ace high
LivesWithMommy stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 144,820 | Rake 0
Board: [Kd 8h Jh 7s 7h]
Seat 1: WestonPoker folded before the Flop
Seat 2: ReulFlasch (button) showed [Qh Ah] and won (144,820) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 3: koolkat25 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: WSOPiCOME (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: TheDon888 folded before the Flop
Seat 8: LivesWithMommy showed [9c Ad] and lost with a pair of Sevens
Seat 9: bvhighlander folded before the Flop
how big are other stacks? Id more than likely push here but id consider whos left to act but you didnt post how the other players were
i think a push here is necessaryy.. i would have gained a 3rd of my stack by no callers, and I think long term its +EV
QUOTE (whatarunaa @ Friday, October 6th, 2006, 9:31 AM) 
i think a push here is necessaryy.. i would have gained a 3rd of my stack by no callers, and I think long term its +EV
I don't know.
Doesn't seem like anyone agrees with you.
Looking at the stacks, I think the push isn't necessary. Everyone is in the same desperate chip position, except maybe Weston. They will knock each other out with marginal hands...you don't need to (yet). When you are down to 40K, you'll be desperate and need to push the top 20-30%, but for now I think you are in top 10% range, especially with 5 people to react behind you.
You are often toast when called by the top 10%, and you improve your position only marginally when you take the blinds. I'd get the warm and fuzzies if you were in CO or button instead of EP.
FYP
If I can make some silly simple assumptions: Someone with top 10% calls 50% of the time (5 players to act behind you, if one of them has AJ+, 99+ they are callling, although they may fold TT-99). You suck out on any caller 30% of the time (except AA). So, roughly:
50% you gain 19,000 chips (+9500)
35% you lose 62,910 chips (-22019)
15% you gain 81,910 chips (+12287)
cEV = -232
Yikes. Close enough to zero that any fiddling with assumptions can make it +cEV, slightly, or more -cEV, slightly. People could call with worse hands, or the range of calling hands might be tighter than top 10%. I dunno. This is still a fold for me, 2nd to act with 7 left at the table.
You are often toast when called by the top 10%, and you improve your position only marginally when you take the blinds. I'd get the warm and fuzzies if you were in CO or button instead of EP.
QUOTE
rustyf_uac (Observer): this is a sick structure
FYP
If I can make some silly simple assumptions: Someone with top 10% calls 50% of the time (5 players to act behind you, if one of them has AJ+, 99+ they are callling, although they may fold TT-99). You suck out on any caller 30% of the time (except AA). So, roughly:
50% you gain 19,000 chips (+9500)
35% you lose 62,910 chips (-22019)
15% you gain 81,910 chips (+12287)
cEV = -232
Yikes. Close enough to zero that any fiddling with assumptions can make it +cEV, slightly, or more -cEV, slightly. People could call with worse hands, or the range of calling hands might be tighter than top 10%. I dunno. This is still a fold for me, 2nd to act with 7 left at the table.
QUOTE (Briguy @ Friday, October 6th, 2006, 1:27 PM)
Looking at the stacks, I think the push isn't necessary. Everyone is in the same desperate chip position, except maybe Weston. They will knock each other out with marginal hands...you don't need to (yet). When you are down to 40K, you'll be desperate and need to push the top 20-30%, but for now I think you are in top 10% range, especially with 5 people to react behind you.
You are often toast when called by the top 10%, and you improve your position only marginally when you take the blinds. I'd get the warm and fuzzies if you were in CO or button instead of EP.
FYP
If I can make some silly simple assumptions: Someone with top 10% calls 50% of the time (5 players to act behind you, if one of them has AJ+, 99+ they are callling, although they may fold TT-99). You suck out on any caller 30% of the time (except AA). So, roughly:
50% you gain 19,000 chips (+9500)
35% you lose 62,910 chips (-22019)
15% you gain 81,910 chips (+12287)
cEV = -232
Yikes. Close enough to zero that any fiddling with assumptions can make it +cEV, slightly, or more -cEV, slightly. People could call with worse hands, or the range of calling hands might be tighter than top 10%. I dunno. This is still a fold for me, 2nd to act with 7 left at the table.
You are often toast when called by the top 10%, and you improve your position only marginally when you take the blinds. I'd get the warm and fuzzies if you were in CO or button instead of EP.
FYP
If I can make some silly simple assumptions: Someone with top 10% calls 50% of the time (5 players to act behind you, if one of them has AJ+, 99+ they are callling, although they may fold TT-99). You suck out on any caller 30% of the time (except AA). So, roughly:
50% you gain 19,000 chips (+9500)
35% you lose 62,910 chips (-22019)
15% you gain 81,910 chips (+12287)
cEV = -232
Yikes. Close enough to zero that any fiddling with assumptions can make it +cEV, slightly, or more -cEV, slightly. People could call with worse hands, or the range of calling hands might be tighter than top 10%. I dunno. This is still a fold for me, 2nd to act with 7 left at the table.
did someone change the situation? the OP was 3rd to act and 4 left behind.
thanks for the advice guys.. it will go far at my next Final table:)
QUOTE (copernicus @ Friday, October 6th, 2006, 3:19 PM)
did someone change the situation? the OP was 3rd to act and 4 left behind.
The HH has him 2nd to act with 5 behind.
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