Down to 38 in a $5 tourney on UB, allready in the money, blinds 1000-2000 200 ante. Its folded around to me in the cut off, with 36300. I raise to 7500 with AQo, button folds, small blind pushes for 23610. So at this point the pot is 35110, and its 16110 for me to call. Up untill two hands earlier i'd had a top 3 stack so i've been doing my fair share of stealing pots from short stacks. With that in mind is this a good call to make getting 2-1 odds?

I call.

But I raise less first time around so that I haven't committed myself to call.

However, AQo is fine to an SB repush vs a perceived steal against someone, who admitedly, had stolen a lot, so I call.

be good to include the stacks at table.
How strong is a 29k stack?
I'd guess your stealing days are numbered with 29k and Bonds+antes = 5000
As I'd think you would no longer be a big stack.

Anyway, AQ is good enough getting 2:1 and we aren't near a big $$$ jump I'd presume

I agree with Zach except I don't think you raised to much preflop.
You could even push preflop.

I raise less PF, 5500-6000 range.

What are reads on the SB that is pushing, would be nice to know more than, you have stolen a lot. Some people just never ever come over the top unless they have AK JJ+. They just think that you are a loose donk that is going to pay them off sooner or later.

I dunno, if you raise to 5500-6000 PF I fold.

I probably fold anyways. I really hate not forcing the action for all of my chips in tourneys, especially when I feel like I am outplaying the table. In a $5MTT there are very few times that you need to call off all of your chips, so many opportunities to get them easier than big confrontations.

If we want to go really deep in these things we need to take these chances.

Let it ride.

Yuck. I don't like that at all.

Increase stack by 13%(ish) or get called as a gigantic dog. 1010+ AK all calling. I feel like this is such a Sit n Go play. I don't play a tourney for 4 hours to push AQ into a monster on a blind steal. If the player in the SB is real tricky and playing back at raises I'll think about pushing, but otherwise its a 5500-6000 raise.

Keep pot small, steal from weak middle stacks and weak small stacks.



This is just not true. This is what people say that want to take risks and gamble.

UB tourneys get anywhere from 100-500sh players. And have the slowest structure. You can get deep without gambling much at all, and when you are gambling its because the blinds and antes are dictating it.

We have an M ~ 7
How can pushing with AQ be wrong ?
We aren't given the ave stack or any stacks aside from villain and ours

Pushing is +EV.
Not sure if more than raisng to ~5000-8000..but still it's +EV to push

And, furthermore, I doubt rasing to 6000 vs 7500 makes any more sense.
We have less fold equity and post flop --- you're folding after a 6k raise and not a 7500 ? It's still very close to 2:1 and less than 1/2 M difference in your remainig stack if you fold
Focusing on that preflop raises amount put way too much on an insignificant and unknown part. Tables play differently, Blinds defend differently, we don't have info to pin point a best bet amount

This was pretty much my thinking for a call. If I win this pot i'm up to a little under 70k and back in 2nd place. Before the hand I was sitting in 11th with right around the average chip stack.

this is not the point u want to go broke with.. its bad enough to go broke with AK .. and at best we prob 45% to win..... against any pair......
is this where u want to stand??

Unless your table has been playing extremely tight and has been folding alot ot preflop raises, because of the fact you can continue to try to play small pot poker, I make this call because:

a ) If you play a 5 dollar tourney, you should be in it to win it and you need to take these chances to aquire that big stack that enables you a better percentage of survival at the Final Table.

b ) Your hand is stronger than usual OTB, and the villian might think otherwise. He could be making a play on you with something as weak as A5s thinking you raised with KJo or something worse. Plus, I think AT worse your in a race here. If he has AK, AA, KK, or QQ - good luck to him. Your hand is way too good at this stage to throw away at your stack when the blinds and antes are so high.

Plus since it's a 5 dollar tourney, your chances of playing small pot poker decrease because these tournaments are usually filled with MIS players (Move In Specialists). That means you have to embrace races at times and just take ahand like 77 or AQo and draw your line in the sand and say, "let's go"....UNLESS you have notes and specific read on a player than would suggest a tight range from the villian otherwise.

If I had to guess, he either had AJ or a pair of nines.

I disagree. Our M is not at all favorable here. We need to make a stand now, if not, we will need to make multiple stands which is more of a risk. To hope that we are going to catch a hand better than AQ over the next 2-3 orbits is way to conservative.

We are in this to win. Playing conservative at this point will only hurt our stack. imo.

getting 2:1.
yeah.

Are you silly?

******************************


well first of all, you dont' have to.
And secondly, what basis do you have to select those two hands specifically ???

I call "wild guess" out of a reasonable range

I think he has 38 soooted or AA..It might be QJ though..But I'd like to think I know what I'm talking about

I'm not sure what I said, but I don't think I said it was wrong. I don't think it's the best move, I'm raising to 5500 85% of time pushing 15%. And when I push that 15% I'm effing livid when I move into a bigger hand. It's the difference between 3 hours of work and 1 hour of work in a Sit n Go, it weighs on me.




I'm not getting into an EV argument with someone that is much better at math than me. I just think there are smarter ways to go about winning these MTTs on UB, I used to play these MTTs and was a winner.



The less fold equity is assuming the player is more likely to call one type of raise over another. This is info we aren't privy to, late in MTTs people are usually either playing their hand or not playing their hand, regardless of size of PF raise. Especially at the 5 dollar level, I'd argue that a min raise and a raise to 7500 are nearly identical in getting the blinds to fold.



All the late stage of an MTT is, is a PF battle. That is the most important part to focus on. Spewing 1M more than is neccessary is crucial. I agree that I would like more info on the SB.






The bolded is the single most overused phrase in MTT history. I play to win too, just because I go about it in a different way that I think is more effective does not mean it's conservative.

Why do we need to make a stand now? The stand would have been to push. Once we raise the SB is making the stand not us. We are guessing. Hey, AQ is a good hand, maybe the table is super strong and it's hard to steal and you have to call off your stack here. I'd like to know more though, in my experience it's very easy to chip up through steals.

The OP said he was stealing a lot anyways, must not be too difficult. Let it go and chip back up. I like winning hands with 0 risk, because then you don't bust. At the least I like pushing my hand, so that the other player is to the guessing game.

Our M isn't favorable, but we are an Avg stack. Meh, I'm losing my HOH touch but I believe that is Q. And IMO, Q is a little more important than M come these late stages.

you seemed to not like it.

************************

we disagree on this hand, as I'd never fold with 35 players left with AQ getting 2:1, w/o solid read on SB, given we raised from LP and raised often. I'd love to never get called, unless it's super tigh/soft table, I don't see that happening. You're basing this a lot on your past success on UB, I"m basing it on posting a lot here. so I got that going for me

With an M that low, I like a push instead of a raise. As it was played, there are only two hands we're afraid of, AA/AK. Even if villain flipped over KK/QQ we're still almost getting the right odds to call. This late in a tourney, and this shortstacked, I think it's a definite call. And "it's time to gamble" is overused a lot, but this is a pretty good situation to be in when you have an M of 7. Actuary is right, imo. Copernicus?

This is the exact wrong time to post, I just got back from the bar.

I have learned so much from copernicus, I've personally sweated his tourneys where hes told me his hole cards. I think copernicus is a great player, one of the best on the site. But, I do think he falls into the "math guy" mold.

It's weird, I'm kind of glad im drunk, because i dont like disagreeing with copernicus or actuary. Most of what they say is spot on.

I seriously feel like im wrong when i disagree with them, but in a 5+.50, I've killed these tourneys. On UB.

The key to winning (i know conservative me) winning, "What you play to win?" How revolutionary. these tourneys, is waiting out the stupid overaggressive players. I've personally won big 5 dollar tourneys. The most overused saying?

I play to win

Who says that? The dude who just busted.

Yeah, I play to win too. Difference is, I actually win sometimes.

I don't even disagree with a lot of these posts. I don't like the big raise, I'd rather push. But instead of the big raise (4xbb) I'd rather raise 2x or 2.5x and give myself options. It's not a one move game at this point.

Blech.

I'm wasted. I'll revise tomorrow.

Well, with me playing it 15% this way, it's obviously not my "optimal" way to play it. I think I spoke strong with the yuck. I just wanted it known that I didnt think that was the only or best course to take with the hand.

I haven't posted in strat in quite a few weeks. Have you started to play more MTTs? I'd truly like to see your results, I like your opinion a lot, which is why I'd like to see your results over like 20 or so Mtts.

I think you are advocating a strategy that is a bit too aggressive, one that does not account for how easy blind stealing is late in a MTT.

Raise less preflop. How often were people restealing this deep? How often was SB restealing? If SB is a loose restealer, call. If this is his first resteal, it ain't a resteal, and you are looking at JJ+, AK, so fold.

nope.
still do'nt play them
if i get money on Stars again I may play some 180's
like I always say..I post opinions to learn.

would 20 MTT"s give any clue anyway?

If hes aware that youve been stealing, or is at all suspicious of steals, this is an easy call. Youre much better than the range he puts you on even if he thinks you have a hand, and he may just be restealing.

Coperncus,

do you play MTT's?

I'd like to see results of at least 20 or more.

thank you

any on UB?

Yes I play MTTs, and HU mostly. I havent played on UB in quite a while.

Im not sure what you mean by results...HHs? Net win?

2006 hasnt been a particularly good year..my net is only about 8k from MTTs. 2005 was significantly better, close to 40k (including a 12k FT live, net of the 10k buyin to the Foxwoods Worlds, and not counting the 20k slot win that paid for that buyin!).

I should remember that you don't read the entire thread....

Not following this one! Do you mean before I post my initial thoughts?

I did read the entire thread before your question about results and dont see where I missed anything.

You act like I'm calling you out.

20 isn't significant. It's a bit more telling than 0.

I used to wrap myself into the "long run" of poker all the time. I think always referncing poker in the long run gave me an excuse to lose. "Well in the long run I would win" And that hurt my game.

Of course 20 MTTs won't tell you what your ROI will be. But if you come up 0-20 on cashing in MTTs that have <200 people, I think it is telling.

And I don't care if they are on UB or not, I was just using it as an example of a place where the field size is consistently in the 100-200 range, but the 180s on stars would obviously be better because it has the same everytime.

I was teasing tskillz, via you.

He is so sensitive.

If I am following, by quoting me but apparently talking to actuary you are saying actuary was being uncharacteristcally sarcastic and not asking me a serious question? Im a little slow today...I need things sprelled [sic] out for me.

You and Actuary are saying the same thing, so I was actually quoting Actuary and talking to Actuary.

And Actuary 'splained it right above your post I believe.

lol

Let's see if I can get the math geeks all riled-up after this post.

I'm gonna tri sum maf!

BTW, these calculations have been derived from HoH III, pages 157-158. I'm sure I may have phucked them up somehow, or misrepresented them. Please let me know if that is the case.


Assumptions:

1. Villain's chances of holding a monster is fairly slim, 3%, so our chances of winning are 23.5%.
2. 87% of the time we are against villain's range (88+, AK, AQ, AJ and KQ, suited or unsuited) we are 46.5% to win.
2. Villain bluffs 10%, we are 60% fav.

So......

Calling, the pot would be 51220

1. 51220*.03*.235=361
2. 51220*.87*.465=20721
3. 51220*.1*.6=3073

equity=361+20721+3073
equity=24155

Folding=36300-7500
folding=28800

Therefore pushing seems -ev.

Have at it.......

Booga Booga.

I feel like Gavin Smith right now.

So long as you don't sing like Gavin Smith.

The crux of the biscuit is the assumptions, and that takes some 2d level thinking to put him on a range. I would put him on a wider range of "legitimate calls" and also more than 10% bluffing, given his observation of our steals.

also why only a 60/40 favorite if hes bluffing?

Yeah, assumptions are hard to pin point. These are directly from HoH III as noted.

60/40..... HoH had villain bluffing with 89s.

yeah.
Shouldn't that be 70/30 ish.

Also, since it's not a linear payout structure, don't we count more for chips gained than lost ?

How do we do that with our calculations? Bump up our win percentage some? How much?

with 35th level conditional probability equations. that account for the prize strucutre and Chips we would have under the various options and results in this hand

should take about 34 yrs to figure out.

But I think logically, that is prize money is really skewed, then the benfit of having a big stack is greater than the chipEV of a particular play.

Coper knows, I may be all wrong

Don't make me use @Risk to solve poker problems, Actuary. I use that program too much at my real job.

No, win percentages dont change. When youre done with your EV calculations, if the net EV is close or even slightly negative for a play that results in a substantially bigger stack, then you would tend to favor that play. Getting more precise than that until youre at the FT is self-gratification (in polite terms)