From a $160 qualie to WCOOP main event.

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BillyBizzle [5h Ah]
big$bond: folds
jjfunk: folds
Flavio - SP: folds
BillyBizzle: raises 500 to 700
Denroid: folds
Anikke: folds
Purdue80: folds
Blixx: calls 500
*** FLOP *** [2d 9d 2s]
Blixx: bets 600
BillyBizzle: ???

Opponent is decent and has 2329 behind. I have 3067 in my stack. Blinds 100-200-25.

...

Call the flop and fold the turn unimproved.

Don't like the call here. Smells like a small pair to me - if he's decent he can probably lay it down to aggression. Not sure how strong your read of him is.

Against a decent opponent push. He can't call with a small pair, and he might fold a 9. You have enough fold equity to make this move.

Why can't he call with a small pair here? A competent opponent in a $160 buyin can't see that this is a bluff a large percentage of the time and call with 66 or 77?

Am I the only one who folds here? I'm not really sure what we get him to fold here that he plays like this...Calling to jam the turn is a risky move, but could be done if and only if the right scare card comes..I say just get out now while we have little invested

Would you prefer to have a scare card on the turn or a total blank?

I let the meter run down and fold as well. I don't know, it's a lot of risk with just 3 reasonably safe outs when we haven't invested much. I think we get calls from pocket pairs more than we'd like, and there's always the chance that he's got a monster and is praying that we push an overpair. I can see the merit in both plays, but I believe you'd need a strong read on an opponent in order to bluff here. Without which, I'm folding.

Scare card as in A, K, or Q because I think he has a pair here...and I don't think we get him to fold this pair w/ a flop push...Unless you have a super tight image and you know he can fold a good hand..I just don't see him getting away from 66 or 77 on this flop


Edit: Tough break in the WCOOP man..I was railing and couldn't believe when the 10 hit and of course there was no redraw

all you good MTT'ers here can help me out.

But I don't like preflop.

We have 3700 ( M < 8) and are raising 3.5x BB with A-Rag suited.

What was the texture of the table?

I wonder about that too, Actuary. Wouldn't 500 be enough to steal? Why even steal here at all? Weak aces suck if your steal attempt gets called, plus you're in MP.

Button and CO were weaktighties who wouldn't call with hands like A8 or KJ here. At this level, 700 covers the 3 BB raise as well as the large antes (total of the antes is larger than the BB). In a 180, I make it 800, but at this level of play I can make it 700 and get the same reactions.

I hate the 500 raise. Totally. Completely. Utterly. Hate the 500 raise.


The AQ A10 hand wasn't a big deal. The hand that prevented me from going deep was the KK hand where Lee rolled off the gutterball on the turn.

Would 77 or 66 really call preflop here? They don't have a set-value call here, but they do have enough chips behind to shove and get me off most hands, no? Also, if they had 77 or 66, would they weaklead the flop here and give me an opportunity to come over the top?

He can call with a small pair here. I don't think he will call with a small pair often enough to make a push -EV.

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BillyBizzle [5h Ah]
big$bond: folds
jjfunk: folds
Flavio - SP: folds
BillyBizzle: raises 500 to 700
Denroid: folds
Anikke: folds
Purdue80: folds
Blixx: calls 500
*** FLOP *** [2d 9d 2s]
Blixx: bets 600
BillyBizzle: calls 600
*** TURN *** [2d 9d 2s] [3h]
Blixx: bets 2329 and is all-in
BillyBizzle: calls 2329
*** RIVER *** [2d 9d 2s 3h] [6c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Blixx: shows [8d Kd] (a pair of Deuces)
BillyBizzle: shows [5h Ah] (a pair of Deuces - Ace kicker)
BillyBizzle collected 7558 from pot

So my thoughts during the hand went something like this-

Button and CO were weak tighties, so it's basically like raising A5h on the button, but with the added benefit of looking like I am not on the button. When the BB calls and doesn't shove for 3k more, I knew he had a playable hand, but not something amazing (bye bye AJ+, 88+). His flop bet only encouraged that view, removing several other hands from his range (33-77) that had me beat. At this point, I'm worried about a random ace or random nine beating me. However, there are too many combos of cards (KQ, KJ, K10, QJ, J10, etc etc) that make his range well wide enough to think that I am way ahead. I call here, looking for a decent turn (a rag, not KQd) and get it. I pretty much expected him to check here, so his open instajam surprised me a bit. I went through the progression again, made sure he didnt have a PP or a big ace, and knew there were far too many hands I was ahead of to fold getting slightly over 2:1. I called and he had a hand I didn't expect to see (why he didn't check-shove the flop with diamonds I don't know) but it was still one I was a 66% favorite versus.

You should include a read that Blixx is retarded in the OP.



Why? Weak-tights are afraid to call it in the 180s. Hell, they're afraid to call a min-raise at the 200+ante level (not that I would ever minraise, nor advocate it).

I had no read on the other player.

Isn't the definition of weak-tight to be afraid to call any raise? And I don't think you find a lot of weak-tights in the 180s. Our entire strategy guide is based on the fact that if someone has J9 and flops a 9, they will never ever fold. Finally, you are going to find fewer weak-tight players in a $160 buyin than a $22 buyin.

Push preflop

Fold as played

This situation looks like a pretty clear push-or-fold scenario on the flop.

Waiting for a "decent" card on the turn is a losing situation for a couple reasons:
--> We don't really know what Villain has.
So we don't know what a decent card is here.
--> We give Villain a chance to push us off the pot on the turn with an all in bet.

If we think he is ahead, it's best to put him to the test by putting him all in immediately on the flop.
If we think we are behind, we fold.
But the turn is certanily not going to make things more clear if we miss.


--CM

So you shove 3700 into the pot preflop with A5 suited at the 100-200-25 level?

I expected people to attack it as a push or fold situation. Normally, that's what I look for in most MTTs. Satellites, however, count survival as a more important factor than accumulation. I developed a decent range of hands for him (A8-A4, KQ-K7, QJ-Q9, J10 is approximate) and I am far ahead of a large number of these hands. The key here is that the cards I am afraid of are very well defined-diamonds, kings, and queens. He is giving me an opportunity to put 600 into a 2325 pot to see if I can avoid one of those 15 cards on the turn. Why should I be desperately shoving my last 2300 in here, hoping he whiffs twice, when I could call on the flop and then shove on the turn? On the flop against any diamond draw, I am both behind and with zero fold equity, whereas on the turn, I am ahead and have fold equity if he checks to me. Shoving here felt like too much of a desperation play to put it on my list of options.

Yes, but you've already ID'd the CO and Button as weak-tight. You raised looking to steal position as well as blinds. There are plenty of weak players preflop in the 180s. There also happen to be plenty of players who can't release TPnK or unimproved low pockets, once the flop is down. Yay for them!

It's fairly moot anyway. I'm too lazy to type in an amount, so if I'm stealing/value-raising, I usually just raise to 3x. I've seen a lot of people open raise to 2.5x, and it seems to steal quite effectively. If 3.5x is your preferred bet, and it's working for you, keep on keeping on. Keep pot control issues in mind, though, when your stack is in the 15-20 BB range.

Edited to add: Sorry, I didn't realize this was a $160. My brain must've misread the 160 as 180, and gone from there. Forget my w/t comments.