Scott3705
Monday, September 25th, 2006, 1:18 PM
QUOTE (CobaltBlue @ Monday, September 25th, 2006, 1:01 PM)

While tricksters/loose players/calling stations might play those hands, an unremarkable opponent doesn't come in with those hands from earlyish position.
What you're considering unremarkable also doesn't min raise this flop either.
QUOTE
What other recourse do I have on the river? He almost certainly has me beat (~95% of the time), and I can't stand to call a bet. Hard to just concede a pot this large. I'm not pushing in...which might look desperate. Based on my bet size, I only need to fold a busted draw or middle pair a little over 1/3 of the time. I actually think that I'll fold one of those far more often than that. Without a 6 (possibly a 5), the opponent certainly doesn't like this board. Unless he's tricky (and I don't think he is), his hesitancy is testament to that. And, he has enough behind for this to be a significant decision.
You have absolutely none. I was just citing your comment that you don't plan on going broke in this unraised pot. Calling off all your chips on bottom 2 isn't the only way we can go broke in an unraised pot. Getting uber-aggressive is another way to go broke in an unraised pot.
Here's the fundamental problem w/ this bluff against no face villian. Villian showed a donkish quality on the flop and therefore his actions and holdings are less predictable than we like. Fine we can still get agressive here at the flop.
At the turn you bet again and get a call. Now what type of villian is he? Do you ever bet this with a 6? Maybe, but with him cold calling you're probably hesitant about putting more money in and you gave off so much strength that it's hardly ever a 6, do you bet with 33, yep. 56, yep. So betting isn't that awful. But at that point, why are we calling if we're a semi competent, unremarkable player? Are we drawing to a flush on a paired board against a probable made FH? no. Can we think an overpair is still good? maybe if we think heros on a bluff. Maybe we're a donk and think our 6 is good.
On the river, 33 seemed like the most likely made hand. No one is going to give you credit for 55, 66, and 56 anymore. unremarkable villian thinks, wouldn't the 6 scare his 33 if he hat it? (Yes it would). Putting together the hand, he never plays a naked 6 on that board that hard on the flop, he most certainly doesn't bet it on the turn, and the 33 probably c/?'s on this river. So unless you have caught a flush draw (which the unremarkable villian should not have given the turn, and if he does have it, is completely capable of being calling station 6-8 from early position and calling down until the river), the competent unremarkable villian should call.
Edited for marginally more clarity.