I gave this player a lot of respect.. i'm not quite sure what I can bet on the river he can call with. My Table image.. not quite sure. I sorta convinced myself he was making a sick check on the river.
edit: I didn't want to go broke.

***** Hand History for Game 5235095572 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, September 23, 21:38:50 ET 2006
Table Table 108733 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 5: lilxlazyxboi ( $155.65 )
Seat 3: bell16111 ( $144.96 )
Seat 1: mordekhai ( $76.97 )
Seat 2: lagerHLTs ( $103.60 )
Seat 6: riceczech ( $103.90 )
Seat 4: Malmbilen123 ( $100 )
bell16111 posts small blind [$0.50].
Malmbilen123 posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to lilxlazyxboi [ Ad Tc ]
lilxlazyxboi raises [$3].
riceczech folds.
mordekhai folds.
lagerHLTs folds.
bell16111 calls [$2.50].
Malmbilen123 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, Td, 7c ]
bell16111 bets [$3].
lilxlazyxboi raises [$9].
bell16111 calls [$6].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
bell16111 checks.
lilxlazyxboi bets [$14].
bell16111 raises [$40].
lilxlazyxboi calls [$26].
** Dealing River ** [ 8s ]
bell16111 checks.
lilxlazyxboi: i guess u can only call me if u have me beat
lilxlazyxboi checks.
bell16111 shows [ Ts, Kh ] three of a kind, tens.
lilxlazyxboi shows [ Ad, Tc ] three of a kind, tens.
lilxlazyxboi wins $102 from the main pot with three of a kind, tens with ace kicker.

I would have been more scared of him raising rather than calling.

well any bet i make on the river would make me committed.

I didn't read the thread, but you probably did.

First things First, we have to look at the stakes your playing ($100NL). Usually players at these limits are not capable of out "smarting" their opponents.
With that being said, lets go step by step after the flop:

FLOP
- he leads into you (the pf raiser) for about half the pot. That screams of a "feeler bet" meaning, he wants to know where he's at in the hand. Players at the 100NL level will often do that with any pair on that board. Yes it is possible he could do this with a draw.
- u raise 3x his bet (which I like btw). Now to me (and maybe to your opponent) that looks like an overpair.
- he calls. Why would he call if it looks like you have an overpair? 2 reasons come to mind. 1) implied odds to hit one of his cards and bust you 2) players at that level can not lay down hands. I'm leaning toward number 2. So to recap, at this poing it's safe to say he has a draw or a pair that you are beating.

TURN
- now the turn is a 10. You bet $14 (i would have bet about 80% of the pot)
- he raises you to $40. This guy is telling u he has a 10 in his hand. Most players at this level can not fire a semi-bluff raise here. Here is how I would have played it, move all in. Why? I'd say 85% of the time he's going to have a 10 in this spot. If he has a 10, your getting called. If he has a draw, you move him off it.
- instead u called.

River
- he checks which probably confused u. He is either planning to check raise u all in or he now realized he's beat. In any case you should bet becasue the 8 isn't really a scare card. Yes, it completes a straight but only a gutshot which I highly doubt he has.

All things considered, your going to have the best hand 90% of the time. Yes he could have lead into u with trips on the flop (and turned a boat) but like I said earlier at the 100Nl level, players are not that sophisticated to disguise their hand like that. If you look at it, you could have won a $300 pot instead of $100. But this is why we discuss hands, so you won't make that mistake again. GL at the tables!

Really nice first post Left_Out

yeah ur def. right

Thanks. It's nice to be here. Post #2... YES!

Agreed, all the money should have went in on the turn at the $100NL game.

hi, how do you get 85%//.?

post in strat.

that is all.

I made the same mistake, but next time don't post results until you get some feedback.

Just a high number I threw out there to emphasize the point that he probably has a 10.

Yes, but 85% is a bit much, no?

Hmm, thats a good question. If we assume we're against a standard $100NL player and given how the flop and turn played out, I'd say it's gotta be close. Maybe we can expand on this topic.

What the heck are you doing here in General? Go post in Strat. Only degenerates post in General.

That being said, welcome to FCP.

Yeah, OP played well on the flop and then crashed and burned on the turn. I push that turn.

Haven't read the whole thread and don't need to. Push the turn and you get max value out of the hand. It's not close.

I woulda just done what poker legend jaime gold does...

Tell him not to call cuz you have a hand, then tell em you'll show him anyway... then just keep talking and saying stupid sh*t... then when he folds, think youre the best poker player in the world and not just a sap that won cuz you had more chips than the entire table combined.

yes...

What is it with these ridiculously long usernames all of a sudden?

OP- Even though I like your name, and get the reference (Brand New, if I'm not mistaken) this is just getting ridiculous.


Although nothing will beat that "AA vs KK oh shit I have KK" guy

That's not a bad estimate because following the play until the turn it's almost a blueprint for a ten. One thing that could have been different is if he had just checked and called the flop, then the check raise on the river might mean set turned boat more often. With the "feeler" bet on the flop this screams of a ten in his hand. Nice reply Left_out.

Okay, I'll add my thoughts. Here is the problem with posting results giving results based thinking.
This needs to be posted in strat. You also need to get rid of the results.


With you so far, although he could also have 2 pair or a set.


Or, of course, he is slowplaying 2 pair or a set. Easily possible. You seem to have missed this.


Or he has a set.


1) You've already said he can't have a draw.
2) Some players could fold JT or T9 here to a shove.
3) He might have a 10, but he could easily have a full house. By moving in you give him a chance to get away from trips.


I like calling the turn. You aren't going to have the best hand 90% of the time. You can easily be an underdog to his range.
On the river I agree that betting is the right play, but I'd say only about 1/2 pot. If you get raised you can fold, and if you get called you will probably have the best hand.


Other than ignoring the possibility of a set, nice post Left_Out.

QFT