DonkSlayer
Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 10:06 AM
$100 max on Doyle's Room, FT. No reads, table is typical of this site and is tends to be loose/passive. Hero's stack is 3rd largest at table.
Hero in the BB with QsQd
6 limpers, button (villain) raises to $3 (Has about $25 behind after raise). SB calls $3. Hero Pushes for $68.
simo_8ball
Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 10:57 AM
Stack sizes of the limpers would be useful.
In any case I think it's a +EV move.
No_Neck
Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 12:08 PM
why would you push? trying to isolate the small stack with a little squeeeze play?
Scott3705
Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 12:21 PM
QUOTE (DonkSlayer @ Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 10:06 AM)

Hero's stack is 3rd largest at table.
Hero Pushes for $68.
ewww. What the hell is that all about.
Play is fair enough w/ everyone so short.
DonkSlayer
Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 3:27 PM
QUOTE (No_Neck @ Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 4:08 PM)

why would you push? trying to isolate the small stack with a little squeeeze play?
Nope. Trying to get someone to make a call with marginal holdings, given that they could likely double up against my stack if they win.
I posted this for a reason that i'll say a bit later after a few more responses, if they come.
LongLiveYorke
Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 3:56 PM
QUOTE (DonkSlayer @ Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 7:27 PM)

Nope. Trying to get someone to make a call with marginal holdings, given that they could likely double up against my stack if they win.
You know these players better than I. What range of hands do you think that the average player is capable of calling with? What range did you expect to be called with?
LongLiveYorke
Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 4:23 PM
Since you didn't post all stack sizes, it's hard to tell the equity of the move. I'll assume that the average stack is about 60. So, we're risking 60 to win about 72 (including blinds and limps, about).
Let's say that they will only call with AA, KK, and AK:
The chance of any one of them holding one of these three hands is about 2.3%, so the chance of any of the 8 having it is (ABOUT!!!) 18%. Against the range of AA, KK, and AK our hand of QQ is about 40% (according to pokerstove). So, our equity is
(.82)(12) + (.18)(.4)(72) - (.18)(.6)(60) = 8.5 (about)
So, this move has a positive expectation even if they are tight enough to call with only AK, AA, and KK. If we add AQ, someone has one of the calling hands about 28% of the time and our hand is 46% against the range. Our equity is:
(.71)(12) + (.28)(.46)(72) - (.28)(.54)(60) = 8.72 (about)
The addition of AQ only slightly helps our overall equity in this rough estimation.
This calculation could be made much more complicated, but this is a rough estimate to give you a good idea of how well your move works.
DonkSlayer
Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 6:08 PM
Yorke, I have such a hardon about my play now that you did the match. Don't take that the wrong way.
The point was that I was pushing because I believed a much wider range than AK/KK/AA was potentially calling. I was happy to scoop about $10 with no call, but I thought potentally, 7 out of 10 hands that would call I was way ahead of.
The only hand that I thought was I-wouldn't-be-surprised-although-it-was-a-donk-play reasonable from the raiser or first caller was AK. The original raiser called and did in fact have AK. I mean, really, who juices an 8-way pot with AK?
A flopped. I didn't improve.
I was really, really cocky about my move prior and after my getting beat. I think cockiness is a good way to go broke. I thought I had it all figured out and I wanted to make sure it was a good move and I was just being cocky instead of there was a hole somewhere.
Thanks fellas~ I shall continue with the Miller Light now. Have fun tonite.
LongLiveYorke
Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 6:46 PM
QUOTE (DonkSlayer @ Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 10:08 PM)

Yorke, I have such a hardon about my play
Uh...thank you...
...That was my intention...? (help)
meservery
Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 8:24 PM
QUOTE (DonkSlayer @ Saturday, September 23rd, 2006, 10:08 PM)

The original raiser called and did in fact have AK. I mean, really, who juices an 8-way pot with AK?
are you saying he shouldnt have raised at all?
or that he didnt raise nearly enough?
DonkSlayer
Sunday, September 24th, 2006, 11:24 AM
QUOTE (meservery @ Sunday, September 24th, 2006, 12:24 AM)

are you saying he shouldnt have raised at all?
or that he didnt raise nearly enough?
Nearly enough...we hate playing AK in an 8-way pot, which is what would've happened if I had just called or didn't play.