Help - Search - Members - Calendar
Full Version: Dealing With Variance...
FCP Poker Forum > Poker Strategy Forum > No Limit Texas Hold'em Cash Games
Pot Odds RAC
How do you deal With/Plan for Variance?

For example:

Last night I was playing a cash game at a local casino. I was doing pretty well, up about one buy-in. My table image was Very Tight. I'd only had to show very solid hands for my wins. For some reason I decide to play 7/4 from the button (bunch of players ahead of me made the pot over $60 and I just had to call $10)

Flop came 10/7/4 with two spades.

As the last to act, I fired $25 into the pot. In retrospect, probably not enough - I'd have been happy to take the pot down right there. I got one caller from a very loose player. I immediately put him on 10/x

Turn came with a 2 and I fired out $70 which was neraly his remaining stack - after mumbling something about putting me on a spade draw, he called.

River was a 10 - I looked at him and said: "That was your stinking 10 wasn't it?"

He smiled and turned over 10/5

Now - ignoring my initial call with a lousy 7/4 I'm not really looking for analysis of the hand itself unless it is part of your answer regarding No Limit Variance - big losses like this are going to happen as a normal course of playing No Limit. When you lose to a bad call, it generaly hits you and takes a big hit out of your stack.

Any comments/observations about NL variance?
DonkSlayer
It happens sometimes. I think I play a little hellmuthian (will give up the best hand when the situation is meh) so variance doesn't hit me as hard when I play NL, Limit or PL Omaha, but it still happens.

Honestly, this was unlucky, but when you're playing 1/2 NL at a casino, and someone calls you down with top pair, AND he had the better hand preflop, it's not something to cry about.
Scott3705
Variance sucks.

However, having to deal w/ losing 1/2 a buy in is nowhere near having to "deal w/ variance. "
Verdimme
QUOTE (Scott3705 @ Friday, September 22nd, 2006, 7:24 AM) *
Variance sucks.

However, having to deal w/ losing 1/2 a buy in is nowhere near having to "deal w/ variance. "


Yup.

And, try playing SHLHE. That's when you will truly find out what variance is. I stepped away from it for the moment, and I must say that Im way more comfortable playing SHNL. The swings don't seem half a bad as in SHLHE.
Pot Odds RAC
QUOTE (DonkSlayer @ Friday, September 22nd, 2006, 7:19 AM) *
It happens sometimes. I think I play a little hellmuthian (will give up the best hand when the situation is meh) so variance doesn't hit me as hard when I play NL, Limit or PL Omaha, but it still happens.

Honestly, this was unlucky, but when you're playing 1/2 NL at a casino, and someone calls you down with top pair, AND he had the better hand preflop, it's not something to cry about.

True. Not really looking for any Bad Beat mojo. I still think the Guy was a donk after the flop & turn. I let myself get pretty steamed so I left the table and whined to my wife when I got home.
Scott3705
QUOTE (Pot Odds RAC @ Friday, September 22nd, 2006, 12:23 PM) *
True. Not really looking for any Bad Beat mojo. I still think the Guy was a donk after the flop & turn. I let myself get pretty steamed so I left the table and whined to my wife when I got home.

You only lost 1/2 a buyin on that hand tho. Did it really get you that bad?
Pot Odds RAC
QUOTE (Scott3705 @ Friday, September 22nd, 2006, 12:28 PM) *
You only lost 1/2 a buyin on that hand tho. Did it really get you that bad?

Yeah - For some reason it did. I have had a bit of a poor run (5 or 6 losing sessions in a row) the past month or so and just let it bug me a little too much. I went in with some baggage in the form of expectations on myself to end my streak and was upset more with myself than the Donk. Upset mainly for putting the expectations on myself - I know that is counter-productive.

In general, I am pretty good at not letting a loss mean that much to me - especially since my bank roll is still in positive territory - but getting a little thin!
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.
Invision Power Board © 2001-2010 Invision Power Services, Inc.