gigabit_2
Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 11:28 AM
Since football is scored in increments of 3, 7, 6, 8 and 2 points - in that order of regularity - certain pointspreads are much more significant than others. For example, a ½-point variance in a bookmaker’s posted pointspread from 3 is much more important than a ½-point variance from a pointspread of five. This is because football games are very likely to end with 3 points as a margin of victory, but not at all likely to end with a margin of victory of 5 points. About 14 percent of all NFL games end with a margin of victory of precisely 3 points, but only about one game in thirty will end with a pointspread of 5 points.
kers2
Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 11:37 AM
Dr_Shakes
Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 11:39 AM
QUOTE (gigabit_2 @ Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 11:28 AM)

Since football is scored in increments of 3, 7, 6, 8 and 2 points - in that order of regularity - certain pointspreads are much more significant than others. For example, a ½-point variance in a bookmaker’s posted pointspread from 3 is much more important than a ½-point variance from a pointspread of five. This is because football games are very likely to end with 3 points as a margin of victory, but not at all likely to end with a margin of victory of 5 points. About 14 percent of all NFL games end with a margin of victory of precisely 3 points, but only about one game in thirty will end with a pointspread of 5 points.
How do I use this to make more mobney?
gigabit_2
Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 11:45 AM
The ten most meaningful pointspreads are 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, and 17. (Not in that order, however.) Almost two-thirds of all NFL games can be expected to end with one or another of only those ten margins of victory. To bettors, a line move off one of those numbers can easily present either an opportunity or a trap. An underdog getting 3½ points, for example, is a much better bargain than the same underdog getting only 3 points. That extra ½-point means their opponents must upgrade a field goal to a touchdown in order to cover. And by the same token, an underdog getting only 2½ points is a much higher risk than the same underdog getting 3 points. A ½-point move from a pointspread of 3 can be more important than many much larger moves. An underdog getting 9½ points instead of 7½ points is hardly a better deal at all. Since games rarely end with a margin of victory of exactly 8 or 9 points, there's simply not much difference between getting 9½ points or 7½ points. If an underdog fails to cover 7½ points, they're not likely to cover 9½ points, either. Likewise, a favorite giving away 7½ points is hardly a better bet than the same favorite giving away 9½ points. If a team wins by more than 7½ points, they will almost always win by more than 9½ points.
cuddlemonkey
Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 11:46 AM
QUOTE (Dr_Shakes @ Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 2:39 PM)

How do I use this to make more mobney?
This dude averages 8 posts a day. You only average 1/10th of that number. Why should he tell you how to get all the mobney?
gigabit_2
Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 11:50 AM
i no understand you bad grammer cuddle monkey is har to read post like dis no?
Dr_Shakes
Thursday, September 14th, 2006, 8:08 AM
QUOTE (cuddlemonkey @ Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 11:46 AM)

This dude averages 8 posts a day. You only average 1/10th of that number. Why should he tell you how to get all the mobney?
He likes me?
He likes Jennifer Harman?
He likes listening to himself talk?
I don't know, but I do find it interesting.
Anyone got a counter argument?
wilheldp
Thursday, September 14th, 2006, 9:05 AM
The only score that an American football team cannot have is 1. I've seen games that ended at 4-2. Combinations of missed extra points, 2 point conversions and field goals can make some crazy scores. Nothing is out of the question.