Call.

The ME is virtually a crap shoot anyways. You have to bust sooner or later, and considering that 90% of the field isn't going to cash...you might as well take the chance.

So what if I lose? If I have 10K to get into the WSOP, then I can afford to lose. Yeah, it's ten thousand dollars, but I wouldn't be in the ME if I couldn't afford to lose it. Besides, depending on the situation, I might have paid $100 in a satellite to get in, gotten lucky, etc....

If you lose, then you lose, that's why it's gambling. So, just call, and hope they hold up.

By folding this 60/40 edge you've resigned yourself psychologically to playing scared. Let's say it was only a $5 sit n go and somehow you know the opponent had QJh. Would you call? I know I would; it's only a $5 SNG. Of course, $10,000 can't really compare to $5 but that's exactly the point. You can't let the buy-in amount affect your game at all. Whether you're first out or get knocked out on the bubble you'll make zero. The whole point of any tournament is to end up with all the chips BY making positive equity decisions.
Sometimes you get lucky and other times unlucky, but hopefully you'll make correct choices and that's the best you can do.

This is really not that difficult a situation. You know what your opponent has and you are a 3 to 2 favorite against that hand. So you are ahead. At some point in the tournament, you will need to gamble to accumulate chips and to win. It's as simple as that. In this case, you have been given a golden opportunity by your opponent because em has exposed em's hand. This is a simple call. The fact that there is a 40% risk should not deter a call. If I knew he had a made hand pre-flop, I think that this would be an entirely different situation. Also, the fact that all other players have mucked prior to the blinds makes it seem likely that no one had an ace so I would have three outs there. It is more likely that players mucked a king, queen or jack, especially on the first hand of the WSOP.



Oh, and I forgot to add that with Phil and Gus at the table, two famously aggressive players, I would bet that they would not have mucked an ace or a king, jack type of hand.

I would call in a heartbeat. Folding here is a scared play. If you think Hansen and Ivey are going to give you a whole lot of better places to get your money in, you're fooling yourself. I dont know Ivey's style, but Gus will be in a LOT of pots. If you dont gamble with a positive edge, you may as well read a book until they move you. Doubling up now will tell Gus et al that you aren't afraid to get your chips in, AND it will put you in a position where nobody can attack any more than half your stack...at least until someone catches up.

A call is HUGELY +EV. Early in a tourney, equity is closely represented by stack size. Given that, doubling up 60% of the time increases your equity by 20% to 12k. If I get the opportunity to make 2k in equity in 2 minutes of play at the ME, I'd be a fool to pass it up. Plus if I bust out, I haven't wasted 5 days donking off my equity.

It's risk-reward, basically. Being an extremely deep-stacked tournament, and having the opportunity to double-up and being the big stack at a table with Ivey and Hansen gives you room to see a couple more flops and get unlucky or make a couple mistakes without your chip stack being too afflicted. The risk? A possible inevitability that probably will happen sometime between the first hand and the third or fourth day... being sent home down 10k. I say why the hell not?

I'm calling...NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker.

Where do you come up with that? Also, you don't "make 2K in 2 minutes" because you still have to outlast 10,000 more people. I'm not saying don't call, I'm just saying that the increased edge isn't nearly as big, or as easily defined as you have it here.

He's talking about chip equity, not money equity.....the problem is, they're not equal (ie. in wsop me 06, the winner got 90 million chips, but only 12 million dollars).

60% of the time you get 20000 chips...40% you get 0 chips...meaning your equity is 12000.


Another way to look at it...

60% of the time you go +10000 = +6000
40% of the time you go -10000 = -4000

The total EV is +2000...ergo, 12000. (actually slightly less because you've already committed 50 chips)


Another way to look at it...if you played this tournament every month, and this exact scenario happened everytime, averaged out it would be like you started with 12k vs. everyone else's 10k, for every tournament.

I know how to calculate equity and EV. I think he's confused because he has equity in the POT, but at this stage, his equity in the tournament is altered by such a small amount that it almost doesn't matter.

He increases his chip stack by 20% (on average, by calling) which is not the same as increasing his equity by 20%.

He also comments that if he "busts, he won't waste 5 days donking off his equity" but really it takes 3 days to really gain any true measurable equity in the tournament becuase it's not until day 3 that you get into the money and can actually assign a monetary value to your chips because you are guaranteed to get paid for them.

Because some people might hesitate to give an opinion contrary to Daniel's.

no.

You can see that if you don't post the article here.

That was the purpose of the question as well, and I think DN is perfectly capable of putting his own answer in the question if that's what he wanted.

That's not a reason.

This is a super easy call. If your thought process is that you want to avoid marginal situations for all your chips think of it this way: By calling, 60% of the time you can have a player all in twice as a 60-40 favorite and go out only 16% of the time. By folding, 100% you can be all in twice as a 60-40 favorite and you will go out 74% of the time

.40+.16*.60= .496 chance of getting out

1.0-.6*.6= .74 chance of getting out.

Thus, by taking the first gamble your stack can withstand later marginal situations. By not taking the gamble, you will have a much harder time withstanding the marginal situations.

Easy call.

Phil H. said to win the WSOP now you must win about 9 coin flips during the tourney (paraphrased). This isnt even a flip, you are way ahead.

Like a previous poster stated, if I dont play this now, I play scared until the final table. I wont make the final table unless the poker gods give me a winning AA hand every lap of the button. I would be too timid to play much else.

I take advantage of the edge and call.

If said opponent is that terrible, someone will get his chips very quickly... it might as well be you.




This is the correct answer.

Based on recent information the obvious answer is fold. All you need to do now is wait for a color up and you'll get way more than 10k in chips when the floor screws up...

But really, for me, its an easy call. Why not take the chance when you know 100% that you have the lead going in. Unless you see his cards again you'll never know 100% that you are ahead.

This question was in one of DN's articles or blogs ( I cannot remember which).

Definetely a call.

Hi. 60% isn't a small edge.


Possibly. Someone also folded bottom set to a guy that had top set. There is no relevance to your comment.


Interesting that this is a 60/40 split with the responses.
Try posting this question in tourney strat and find out the responses there.

There is more to consider than being a 3-2 favorite, you have position on the donkey in the small blind for all but one hand in an orbit so wait until he makes another boneheaded move when you have a bigger edge, and if you have Gus and Phil on your left even if you have a big stack more often than not you're not going to be pushing with aces when you try to bully the table so having a loose aggressive appearance giving up position to those two wouldnt be good, so there are more variables to account for than just a slight edge, so depending on table position and the table image you want to portray a point could be argued for a call or a fold, I personally lean towards a fold but if Gus and Phil were on my right I might consider calling

But thats just my opinion

You are slightly more likely to win than if your opponent limped in the SB with Q J , you chose to check in the BB with two black tens, the flop came T 9 2 , and your opponent pushed all-in and accidentally exposed his hand to show he had the straight flush draw.

Would anyone really fold the nuts there? If you would call there, wouldn't it be stupid to fold in a situation where you have an even greater chance of winning, because that is what people who advocate folding the AK are doing?

Easy call. I don't care if it is the first hand or the bubble, CALL! You know you are a favorite, so if your hand holds up then you have an immediate 2-1 chip lead on your table and probably the field. Then you can play the more conservative approach if you want, but how many times in the tourney are you going to putting your chips at risk when you are NOT the favorite but have too many outs NOT to call? I would rather put them in when I KNOW I am a favorite.

Here's an example of a hand that I played in a home tourney over the weekend:

Person to my right goes all in, usually a tight player. She can easily be put on top pair with a good kicker. (Flop= 10d-Jd-4c) and I am holding Qd-Kd so therfore I have a buttload of outs. I debate for a little while, then I call her All-in which put me almost all in, virtually out of the tourney on the bubble if I lose. Top 3 paid and I would have finished in 4th after only have less than a BB left after calling. I Call her and hit a K on the turn to take the hand.

Did I have the best hand at the point of the call? Not really, I did have the best drawing hand, but if I don't hit then I am left with nothing, if her hand holds up then she wins. My point is, you have to risk your tourney life at some point during these marathons or sprints, might as well be when you KNOW you are the favorite and hope that your hand holds up. I don't think either of us played that hand poorly, we each did what we thought was the right decision. If that works for you, then play your game and damn the torpedos!!!

Just my opinion and like assholes, everyone has one and most of them stink.

Raise preflop. That's where you went wrong. You have position and a strong hand - take advantage of it.

The only time I fold here is, since the player has shown me his cards, the dealer has also decided to let me know what the board will look like in advance, and it's QQQ72.

Fine, you raise preflop, he calls, and he pushes in as first to act on the flop. Or it's 88 vs t9s on a 872 flop. A raise won't make much of a difference in the pot odds, given the starting stack size and the blinds, and if you do raise enough to distort the pot odds, you're an idiot.

I would insta-call because my goal is to win tournaments. I know I will have to get into a "race" at some point or another, and putting my money in with 3-to-2 odds would be good enough for me seeing as if I did possibly wait until later, I could get the money in worse (as in even) with AK over QQ or something like that.

I had a play similiar to this last night on FTP (24+2 MTT) when this super aggressive guy kept moving in on my blind. Even though I couldn't see his cards like this example, I knew what he was doing and I just waited for my spot. The guy's play eventually catches up to him and he has about 1050 left. With the blinds at 100/200 (I have about 1700, just not catching cards but winning smallish pots to stay alive), I look down at AdKd in my BB. The maniac SB moves in, and I even blurt out, "He probably has 109 or something". I called and he did have 109! The fact he caught trip 9's was irrelavent as I made the correct play, in my view.

Yeah, I could have folded and waited for an even better spot, but as Sammy Farha says, "You have to gamble to win". And if you gamble, going in with the best of it is the way to go.

It's an easy call, and if you get bad beated, just say, "Nice hand" and move on.

I think you missed the point of my post.

I fold cause I pull a hellmuth and show up late and was not there for this hand. I can dodge bullets baby.

Anyone who says fold here, ask yourself if you would make this laydown in the tourneys you usually play ($20 sng, $5 rebuy, Pokerstars Million, whatever).
And if you would do it there, why not make in the WSOP-main event? Because of the embarrasment on tv if you lose the hand or because of rational decision-making?

In my opinion the value of doubling up in this situation isn't worth the risk of being knocked out.

Any kind of proof/rational explanation for this?

This has the same principle as the old question of 'everyone moves allin, do you call with AA?'

Would you fold in that situation?

In tournament equity calculations, the farther from the money you are, the more your chip stack represents your equity. Before the first hand is dealt, your equity is your buyin. 10k that is. If you double through this guy, you gain all of his equity. Your equity has actually gone up 100%. Instead of having a 1/8000 chance of winning the whole thing, ICM says you now have a 1/4000 chance of finishing first. You still have a very small proportion of the total tournament equity,but you still have increased equity significantly. Increasing your chip stack by 20% on average in the first hand raises your equity by a value very very close to 20%.

I think that you missed the point of my post

Touché

I'd like to say I'd call, that's what I voted anyway.


Chances are IRL, I fold and try to enjoy playing the ME, with a couple of top pros at my table.


Ditto the "take the donks chips later" comments.


Home tourney - I fold. I know I'm better than 60% to get in the money. This past weekends 10 player tourney, I won without ever having to go all-in.


RE: Table goes all-in on first hand and I have AA... fold 'em, I don't know the odds, but I ain't going out like that.

Side-question... What is the % when the other 9 (to your AA)? Since a few guys will require hands, lets go with 3 pairs (KK, JJ, 99), 2 suited connectors (QJ, 109). Axs, Axo, 2 players who thought they were calling $50, 94o, 75o.

Where is the original AA, all others all-in question and discussion? That might help more.

You're roughly 30%, whether you are against 9 random hands, or an assortment of some pairs and suited connectors and 1 or 2 random hands....call it anywhere between 27 and 31% against 9 likely hands. If everyone has a different pair, you're 25%.

The only time you're huge is if there are several people with pairs that cancel each other (eg. kk, kk, qq, qq, jj, jj).

It's tough..you're an underdog to the table, but you will get 100k chips if you win...so...you win the hand, and then you will soon be at a table where your stack is so dominant (10x almost everyone else's) you can really bully the hell out of everyone for the rest of the day.


Also keep in mind that if you fold you will be at this table with a guy with 90k in chips (it's more likely that 8 people will be moved from 8 other tables immediately, because it will be unlikely that there will be spots available at other tables for you to move to).

Psychologially, possibly. Strategically, no. It's the same dilemma people have with the main situation in question (AK vs QJ). They just can't handle the prospect of busting.

Your analysis is spot on though.

I fold.

If someone's going to put a bad beat on me, I'd like to be a better favorite.

I plan on getting better odds down the road.

I might call in this situation at the final table.


In Super System 2, Doyle said the following:

Be disciplined and be ready to lay down marginal hands. I once saw Phil Hellmuth, who has had great success in no-limit hold’em tournaments, lay down a Kh Jh to a Qh 10h 2c flop. He had raised the pot, bet at it on the flop, and got raised all his chips. It was early in the tournament and Phil passed, even though he had a draw at an open-ended straight flush. This is something that would never happen in a cash game. I’m not sure I would have passed, but it was probably correct to do so, given that Phil expected to have even bigger advantages later. Needless to say, my opinion of Phil’s no-limit tournament play went up several points after that hand.

I agree with Doyle. I'm done. Bye.

For those who are advocating folding when you are a 60.4% favorite, what advantage are you waiting for? (numbers via twodimes)

T T vs JTs when you are a 61.3% favorite?

K K vs AKs when you are a 65.9% favorite?
or vs AQs when you are a 67.9% favorite?
or vs AQo when you are a 72.2% favorite?

A A vs 87s when you are a 77.0% favorite?
or vs TT when you are a 80.1% favorite?
or vs 27o when you are a 87.4% favorite?
or vs AKs when you are a 87.9% favorite?

Where do you draw the line?

(grr, stupid two many emoticons error)

Ummm... Doyle's point here is completely irrelevant. In the hand in question if Hellmuth's opponent has top pair he is a a 60/40 fav, same as the hand in the OP, however increase his opponents hand to 2 pair or better ( highly likely given the betting and Hellmuth's reading ability) and it goes to a 50/50 right through to PH being a 40/60 dog.

Not even close to the OP situation where its a guarenteed 60/40.

It's all well and good remembering principles but you need to know when they are applicable

Those are all preflop percentages. Realistically speaking, you're not going to get it all in as better than a 2:1 favorite preflop most of the time. That's why they allow for three additional rounds of betting AFTER the flop.

Like here, for instance:
55 vs ATo with a flop of AT5. You're an 83% favorite.

Ugh...there is more to poker than pushing all-in preflop.

I'm not saying the call in the question is necessarily a bad one but there are better spots to get your money in. Would you call here with K T ?

Yes. Next question?

The fact that your are pushing all-in preflop is completely and totally irrelevent...there is no other way to put it...it doesn't matter...don't even bring it up.

The point to this hand is not that it's preflop, it is you KNOW your opponents' cards...so you KNOW you are a 60/40 favourite....and if you are a 60/40 favourite, you are correct to call, whether it is the preflop, on the flop or on the turn....where you call does not matter...all that matters is that you KNOW you have the best hand and you KNOW your odds of winning it.

Yes...I'd call with KTs as well.

I'd need to be getting down to about 52%...closer to true coin flip territory...before I fold here.

Yes, there are better spots to get your money in...the problem is, they don't happen nearly as often as you think, and, more importantly, most of the time you don't know when they're happening....is your flopped set 85%, 60%, or 5%?

Is your top pair top kicker 55% or 95% or 12%?

You can go for 100 hours of tournament/ring game play without ever seeing a hand where you're the stone cold nuts...unless you're counting on your buddy to show you his cards every hand you will never be as sure of your chances as you are right now.

1) I wasn't involving post-flop play in my discussion in order to evaluate the original question; only to make a point in regard to the large number of preflop match ups the previous poster had provided. My point was that being able to play post-flop is where you can find opportunities to get your money in as a significant favourite.

2) I don't think calling in the original scenario with either AK or KTs in necessarily bad but the margin is admittedly smaller than I am probably comfortable with for the first hand of the (arguably) most prestigious poker tournament. I think I would still rather be confident enough in my post-flop play that I can get this maniac's (or one of the many, many other maniacs') chips when I'm a bigger favourite. I think the propensity for many of the m/e players this year to donk off chips will give me ample opportunity if I'm patient and play my game (which, in part, means avoiding near coin flips early on when I have a deep stack).

3) With regard to the question about knowing whether your flopped set is wa/wb, that is part of superior play. I'm not going to claim that I am good enough to be right every time but I do know for a fact that unless I had confidence in my ability I would not have entered the main event (this may be particular to me as it seems a lot of m/e entrants played like they thought it was a game of roulette).

4) I admit that this is a decent spot to get our chips all-in here but I think I would rather pass here and stick to my game plan.

I know the math, agree with the posts about how important it is to call in this situation. However, I would prefer to make sure I played with Hansen and Ivey for the next three-four hours, rather than take a 3-2 chance that I would lose that opportunity on the first hand. I figure my odds to win the WSOP are about the same as me losing 30 pounds next month -- could happen -- when pigs fly.

I figure that one of the best ways to make progress in poker is playing with better players and watching how they play. I could not pass up this opportunity. Over the long haul in poker, 3-4 hours on the same table as Hansen and Ivey is worth more than doubling my stack at this point in the tourney.

If the scenario is put to me after we've played a couple of hours -- I agree with my learned colleagues and call. Otherwise, I make the donk play, fold and try to learn from the Masters.

Best --

Burgerman

That's what this is all about...where is your line....some pros draw it at 51...others 60...others want more...what's yours?

Do you fold QQ here, which, I believe, is the best hand against QhJh? That's 84%.

Here's one...exact same scenario...but you also see the other 8 players' folded cards, and you see all the queens and jacks and most of the hearts are gone, making you 95%....you gotta call that now.

And I think that's all this exercise is...what's your line...what edge are you willing to pass up...what edge are you NOT willing to pass up?

The problem is, everyone single one of us here, you, me, God, thinks they are better post-flop than they really are.

My line is probably somewhere between 67% and 75%. That's about where I would feel comfortable calling off all my chips on the first hand of the m/e.

And sure, I probably think I'm better postflop than I really am. I do know that I'm better than needing to gamble on the first hand on a coinflip. I still have enough confidence in my ability that I'll pass up being a 3:2 favorite here. I think that until we get to me being a 2:1 or 3:1 favorite I'm not going to be calling as I still have enough confidence in my abilities. At 3:1 I definately call and at 2:1 I am pretty sure I would make the call.

So, in both of the situations you asked me about I defiantely make the call 100% of the time.

If his reason was bizarre for going all in, then I would be even more bizarre for calling with Ace high!! Simple as that.

Congratulations...you have just said the stupidest thing I've ever heard in my life.

I thank the Internet every day.

It's like saying "I wouldn't call because AK is a drawing hand, and I don't want to risk my tournament on just a draw".

i play postflop poker, where there are bigger advantages.

i also enjoy going all in, not calling all in when i am barely better than a coinflip.

these are huge differences.

if you showed me a situation in which i was a 60% favorite, i would go all in. i would probably fold if you went all in and i was put to the decision.

It was not Phil Ivey or Gus Hansen putting you all in. You just sit down and know jack about everybody except the 2 you see on tv. What kind of knowledge have you picked up from the table. On the very first hand I would need a solid BIG pair to call an all-in. For all you know, the guy putting you all in is so tight he only plays aces and the rest of the table would gain that knowledge from your stupidity. In my opinion, this is not the time you would want to get all you chips in the middle.

This makes no sense whatsoever.

You ARE a 60% favourite...it's irrelevent to whether you push or call.

If you push as a 60% favourite you WANT him to call, because he's getting a bad price, and it would therefore be a mistake for him to call...would you push postflop, say on the turn, where you're a 60% favourite, but now the pot has priced him into making it correct for him to call?

This is completely different than a situation where you don't know what he has, but only suspect a range of hands...that's when you have a decision to make.

When you know you're 60% (far from a coin flip)...the decision is easy...if you're godly enough to pass up a 60% advantage, good for you.









OK - you win...THIS is the studidest thing I've ever heard....I'm impressed you outdid yourself.


Go back and read the original post....the guy who went all in doesn't have aces...HE HAS QhJh!!!!!!!

YOU KNOW WHAT HE HAS!!!!!!!

You know you are a 60/40 favourite over his EXACT hand!!!!!


What don't you understand?????