My brain hurts trying to figure out why anyone wouldn't call in this situation.

I wouldn't call because I've already lost a bunch of hands in which I was a 60% favorite or better. I can wait and get better odds or outplay people out of their chips. I'd rather try to make it more of a skill game.

So if you had AA and he showed you KK you would fold? There would be as much skill involved there.

This game is about money. The way you get money is by getting chips. This is an opportunity where you are expected to gain chips.

You really think Daniel Negreanu, Paul Phillips, Chris Ferguson, Greg Raymer, TJ Cloutier, et al. are wrong when they say they would call here?

I didn't say that. I did say, "I can wait and get better odds." I'd call with AA, as an 80% favorite, without having to see the other player's cards.

I wouldn't necessarily "expect" to win as a 60% favorite.

I've never heard of those five players saying that. This question did not ask for a right or wrong answer; it asked for players' opinions as what they would do. There is no right or wrong answer. The next time I'm in the presence of one of those five players, I'll ask them.

You really expect to double up more than 60% of the time? If you do, then you must have an edge over the competition. If you do, how much more of an advantage would you expect to have with double the amount of chips of anyone else on the table? You would be able to play without the worry of busting. Surely it would be easier to grind from 20 to 30 than it is from 10 to 20. This factors into the calculations. In fact, even if you think you have a 65% edge you should call here because of this. I can go through why this is the case if that is necessary.

I think you are misinterpreting my statement. You are mathematically expected to gain chips here.

They are all on record as saying they would take a 60% edge any time. DN wrote an article on this question (which has been posted in this thread) and said no mortal can turn down this edge. Fossilman and Paul Phillips have both said on 2+2 that they will take any edge at all. Chris Ferguson has stated that the best way to win a tournament is to play your best cash game, and to ignore the prospect of busting. I can't remember where I read the TJ Cloutier quote, but it is along the same lines.

So you wouldn't take a chance to double up in chips when you are a 60% favorite at a table with Hansen and Ivey?

How much of a favorite would you have to be before you decide to call?

I really don't care what you think about your own skill level, you're not that good.

Period.

You are not good enough to throw away a 60/40 edge.

Period.

End of story.

No ifs ands or buts.

Players who have made millions of dollars playing poker tournaments, with a collection of WSOP bracelets to boot, all say they call here in a heartbeat. I'm going to grant their opinion a little more weight and merit than yours.

By saying you fold here you say you're better than them.

If you can find some pros (ie. experienced and successful players) who say they would fold here, by all means bring them to the table....but you might want to consider, for a second, the reason why you will have such a hard time finding a pro who would say such a thing.

The reason these guys have millions of dollars is because they put their money in when they have an edge.

The fact is, there is a right and a wrong answer here if your goal is to make money.

If your goal is to experience the ME, or to ogle the pros, or to engage in social gathering with fellow poker players, than folding may be correct.

If you want to win, the answer is call.

Period.

Again.

Hansen and Ivey being at my table is irrelevant. I'd actually feel more comfortable playing against them than one of the idiots at the table. I did better playing against pros in a cash game at the Taj last week than I did playing the idiots when they called my all in on the turn trying to make their flush on the river. The idiots were getting worse than 2:1 on their money and they were 4:1 underdogs to make their flushes, but a couple of them called and hit. The pros that I played against laid down big hands when I reraised them.

Off the top of my head, 70% is a good number; but I might change my mind.

You're confused.

When did "all of these players" say this? I talked to Negreanu & Ferguson at the WSOP. I talked to Raymer last week at the Taj. When I see the players mentioned here, I'll ask them what they think.

Nice try. I never said that.

Wrong.

I'm a player; not a spectator. I've played competitively against some big names in the past. I've outplayed some big names in the past.

Period? I disagree. You, and some others, seem to be in a huff due to a difference of opinion. That's your loss. I never said that you were wrong about this, but you seem to want to say that I'm wrong. Whatever.

I'm not even trying to convince anyone. I'm stating my opinion, what I would do, and why I would do it. You can think what you'd like. I'm bored with the discussion. Bye.

OMFG WTF WHY IS THIS EVEN STILL BEING DISCUSSED!!11 IN TWO THREADS NONETHELESS!!!1

THIS IS AN EASY CALL.

Oooohhh...

All caps, big red letters. It's like what Larry Flynt once said about Hustler magazine: If you don't want to read it, don't (or words to that effect).

Take a deep breath and grow up. You'll be 22 before you know it. Not that it will help you, based on your outrage shown above.

Oh, wait. I see the words under your avatar: "Life Tilt."

That explains everything.

This is simply to answer your question - you can phone them up and ask them yourself if you want. My posts here are to assist people, as I expect others' posts to assist me...if you choose to fold, so be it.

Daniel Negreau, Dec. 27, 2005:

"Let's say you are in the WSOP main event, and on the very first hand dealt, you have A-K offsuit in the big blind. Everyone folds to the small blind, who exposes his cards to you and goes all in with Q-J suited. Would you call?

You should - seriously. You would win the pot 60 percent of the time, meaning that six out of 10 times, you'd start the tournament with twice as many chips, while four times, you'd be out early and could enjoy the rest of the afternoon! That is too good an offer to pass up. You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation, but 60 percent is just too much equity for any mortal to give up."

http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15183

Matt "Mike" Matros, Nov. 15, 2005:

"The small blind doesn't have a protector on his cards, either, and when he looks down at them one more time, he accidentally exposes his hand. He has the A K. You look down at your hand, and find two black queens. You've done your research. You know you have a 53.8 percent chance of winning if you call. But should you?

This is a classic hypothetical question, and it creates raging arguments almost every time it's discussed. I believe there is a right answer to this question, one that doesn't depend on how skillful the player is, or what the player is hoping to get from the tournament. I hope by the end of this column that I will have convinced you.

First, let's look at the common arguments I hear for folding:

(1) If you're a good player, you want to use your skill to find a better spot to get your chips in.

(2) You don't want to risk your entire tournament on one hand, especially in a coin-flip situation.

(3) I don't play these big buy-in tournaments very often, so I want to get some experience playing them.

In case you haven't guessed, I strongly believe all of these arguments are specious."


http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15093


The others...the quotes are out there, if you are actually interested in finding them....

what I'm truly interested in is a pro who advocates your viewpoint...it may not change my mind, but I'm still interested to see one say it...the only one I can imagine saying it would be Hellmuth, and even he, I'd bet a lot of money, calls here.

I have yet to see a pro advocate such a fold in such a situation.

So Daniel said, "You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation" and Matt said, "it turns out that we would take any edge greater than 48.63 percent."

It appears that they disagree.

Wow, thanks for this great article!!!!

Yeah. Slightly. They are both in agreement that 60% is unfoldable though.

Paul Phillips:
"I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker."

Raymer:
"if you knowingly pass up a 60:40 opportunity, you're not a top player."

Great_Dane says:

It's a matter of opinion and I choose to fold and wait til I think that I can have a larger advantage for my tournament life than 3-2.



Everyone gets to be right. Hooray!

You can't argue with someone that their OPINION is wrong!

Also, Daniel doesn't say that he would fold as a 53% favorite, just that someone could make a justifiable argument for doing so.

OK - my opinion is that 2+2=5.

Yeah, good try, but see 2+2 = 4 is a FACT. Just like it's a fact that A K will beat Q J 60% of the time.

Whether it is right to fold or call in that situation, regardless of what the professionals say, or what would give you the best chance to win the tournament, is a matter of opinion.

This line of conversation doesn't need to go past this post.

Yup...as I disagree with calling at 49%.

You will likely find great debate amongst the pros and top players around the 51-55% range, and probably a lot of pros on either side of the argument.

You will not find such a debate at 60%.




It's times like this that I pity the Internet and the entire social ineptitude it has created.

Even when I put the winky emoticon people don't get the joke.

Sad, really.

See, the thing is that pepole can make a justifiable argument for folding.

Someone can legitimately say "I paid $10,000 cash to enter this tournament and I want to do everything possible to ensure that I last until the first break." In that way, their playing style might be so selectively tight that they will only play AA, KK or QQ to a raise preflop. It might not be the best strategy, and their goal might not be to win the tournament, but if that is the way that they want to play, then it is perfectly reasonable to fold the hand here becuase it guarantees that they will last at least another hand.

I think that it's hard to argue for a fold if you're playing to win because:

1. You're properly bankrolled and the $10,000 buyin doesn't represent a large portion of your bankroll. Either that, or you qualified online.
2. You play tournaments for a living and are comfortably financially.
3. You know that winning this hand will give you a larger edge and a better chance to go deep into the field.




The only reason that I made that post was to see if you'd really defend yourself against my retarded assertion that you might actually think that 2+2=5 is a matter of opinion.

I was laughing as I wrote it, and I beamed on the inside to think you took the time to respond!

Is that a fact?

Excellent.

MY DECISION DEPENDS ON HOW I GOT MY BUYIN....did i sell the car or win the seat. If i won it why not take a shot nothing to lozzzzzzzzze..If i paid the entry myself i might wait for a better spot!

Yeah, because better opportunities do appear regularly. This IS the proverbial 'better opportunity' that people look for.

Yeah, well I would prefer that by taking this chance I could play against these two maniacs with a ton of chips as supposed to my original buy-in, increasing my edge.

Chips are power, no matter how bad or good you are(just look at Gold and Raymer's success in the ME with super stacks).

I call knowing im ahead. Take that chance to double up...your gonna need the chips to play against the dangerous gus hanson and phil ivey

This posting never says Phil Ivey is the small blind going all in with Q J . The small blind is unknown. I also find it hard to believe Hanson didn't stay in to see a flop. He plays ATC available.

First, welcome to the forum.

2nd, umm, you won't want to make many posts that are this dumb.

Balloon guy is funny. This is a joke. It is also known as "sarcasm" in some circles. You should learn to pick up on that.

Gus does fold hands. Beside that, there is no point in arguring with how realistic a hypothetical post is.

But seriously, welcome to the forum.

Um....DN, excuse me while I say......DUH

The key element in this question is that it's the ME. If this was just any normal cash game or a tourney you play every week, it's an autocall. But since the question is set up that it's the ME, a lot of people are stumbling over it.

And I don't care who's at the table. This specific situation isn't about who can "play." This is about the cards in front of us and are we willing to let our ME dreams rest on a 60/40 decision. For me, I grudgingly call. The thing is ... if you're going to win/place/show in the ME, you're going to ( have to? / end up? ) going in as a dog at some point. In this case, you're the favorite. Stick the chips in.

If you lose, the Grand Canyon is something else. Rent a boat on Lake Mead. Browbeat the other ME early-exit donks in a cash games. If you win ... look at all the damn chips. (Who wouldn't want to be Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen's "Table Boss?")

That's just me. You asked. I answered.

Interesting that the poll results are about 3:2 in favor of calling with the 3:2 edge. easy call.

I disagree with this. If your aim is to win the event (like in the context of your comment), you might want to re-consider the situation here.

Here you have a chance to double up, something only half the players (mathematically speaking) will be able to achieve. So by turning down a 60 to 40 chance of doubling up, i'd assume you believe you are able to double up with more ease than the average player in this event. But here is something you forgot to consider (or simply ignored). You have Gus and Ivey at your table. Do you really think your chance of doubling up are much higher than 60% if you grind your way up?

I also don't like the way you justify folding simply because your chance of winning the event are still slim even if you win. They won't be any higher no matter how you get your chips. Beside, mathematically wise, you might only be 1% closer to getting all the chips in the tourney but your bigger stack will increase your chances even more as you will be able to ''defend'' yourself from the super-aggressive play of the 2 pros at your table.

So calling or folding rely on only one question; Do you think your chances of doubling up your stack are higher than 60% considering your abilities and the presence of Gus and Ivey?

This looks like a call to me.

PS: I know i'm answering to something posted probably a week or 2 ago but i'm also curious to see what do you guys think of this?

FYP

Me too. I'm calling. I know he has a better strait and flush draw but oh well. I need chips to battle these guys or they'll just push the crap out of me.

I would rather double up early and have a fighting chance or go out early and cry over a big steak.

Besides, I'm here to win!

#1 rule of pops poker school. Do not gamble with an A-hole.

You can make the case of calling as you have the best hand and so that could not be faulted. In a cash game, this is an INSTANT call. The real question is how would you play this hand if you did not see the cards? Most of you would call and so would I as he probably doesn't have a big pair and you dominate AQ, AJS and similar.

However, knowing he is NOT dominated (wish he had AQ) you should not gamble. It is breaking the habit of going all in when only 60% to 40% favorite. How many times do you think you can do that before you loose your whole stack. Again, this is NOT a cash game. You are favored to LOOSE by the third all in this tournament. You have a long way to go and hopefully, this player will make the same mistake again, later on, and show you his cards when you are in a better position with better odds and more ships.

Side note: What a donkey to go all in to pick up a blind with QJ! He is a gambler and not a player! He is afraid of the pros and does not want to see a flop. You can outplay him any hand he calls with and just wait for a monster when he most certainly tries the weak all in again.

One could make the case of folding early, and I would to take advantage of this idiot with better odds. However, once in the money rounds, this to me is an instant call. You stand to gain more real money, not fake chips, by this call.