PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

BB ($30.50)
UTG ($112.85)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($186.95)
MP2 ($67.65)
Hero ($93.35)
CO ($201.35)
Button ($180.15)
SB ($158.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K , K .
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 raises to $5, MP1 raises to $9, 1 fold, Hero raises to $25, 4 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $20, MP1 calls $16.

Flop: ($77.50) 2 , A , J (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($77.50) 2 (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $25, Hero folds, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: $102.50


How weak tight is this?

Please rip me apart.

- Zach

I think you could've called the turn bet since you have position on him, but folding isn't a bad choice...at least u made it to the turn, I didn't make it to the flop lol.

Wow, tough hand. Sure, it might be weak to take that line but a continuation bet sure doesn't feel good in this spot. Even if you bet $40 on the flop (weak) you've put most of your stack. On the turn I don't think a call is very good, if he pushes the river you pretty much have to fold. You also have to take the player behind you into consideration.

Oh, I like a bigger raise preflop, $27-$30.

I like the fold here. Too easy for him to have an Ace or JJ, plus UTG+1 could consievably be slow playing AA.

I think they both have pretty tight ranges, and I'm really not ahead of much... QQ, TT are the only conceivable hands I'm ahead of here, IMO.

I think with the pot as big as it is preflop, and 2 'villains' it almost negates the possibility of a C-bet and so I dont mind your line. I have probably done similar before but not had the balls to post it up

I like the line, but its situation and villian dependant.

For some reason, I thought pushing preflop was the optimal play lol. As played, I fold as well.

Is a $35 bet on the flop awful? Shutdown if called obviously

Tough play when the ace falls.
I think someone else had a good idea when they said a push preflop
may have been the way to go.
Either that or flat call the re-raise preflop and stuff with any safe non-ace flop.

It is because a raise + a reraise, generally a combined range for both players = AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK,AQ and 1010. Since we're losing to most of those hands, and probably wont be able to fold any ace, or a set of jacks, betting here seems useless.

I think we can bet as much as $40 on the flop. Zach, I know you're offering them tight ranges, but I think those ranges, while tight, are both very likely.

I have a hard time believing a naked A checks this flop with the flush draw and backdoor straight draw on there. A little surprised a flopped set would, even if it was a set of A's....mostly because of the draw + the chance that someone had JJ as well.

We either get two folds, or we get called/raised and we're fcked. Fold to a raise, slow down and take your free river if you get called. Folding isn't awful.

Why wouldnt an Ace check here, considering it was raise, re raise, re raise, with Zach, still to act.

Because I want to find out if my AK/AQ is any good here, and I don't want to get checked behind and have somebody hit a K or Q on the turn.

Yeah but your probably a good player. The majority of people at this level checkraise AK all in here or check call AQ.

My thoughts exactly.

I'd like more on this hand.

in all, I think more Aces are out than underpairs.
I think we need to be 50+% to bet the flop here.

99/TT/QQ = 18
AJs AQ AK JJ = 28


Does the flop check sway these to 50/50 ?

How often is the Turn bet TT/QQ ? Hoping we have QQ/KK ?
Our re--re-raise Preflop and Flop check screams KK, now. Or AA if you play like that.

to call the turn, we are saying "Keep betting your QQ/TT"
I see no draws that are not already ahead ( A hi flush draws); thus no reason to push the turn.

Pot after turn call would be 127. We'd have ~$50 left. If he bets $50 on the river are we beaten 3.5 : 1 ?

Or does he have to bet this to hope we lay down KK now?

If we think we need to call a river push, then lets consider the turn call getting about 2:1 effective odds. If we read the flop checks and weak turn bets as non-Ace enough we certainly are ahead enough for those odds, according to preflop card distributions. Then you have to consider, how often are we only winng the $25 he's stabbing with here and checks to us on the river with TT, vs the $73 we lose when he bets both streets with his AQ ?

Unlike when we bet the flop, we will actually make money from worse hands sometimes calling off on the turn and river.

Or maybe that's the pivot point here. MP won't bet the river with enough hands we beat, so we can take the 93 : 25 here and fold to a river push ?

lol... my head is spinning

dont really see why this play is being questioned.....he is behind more often than not.

unless you have strong reads on opponents and want to make a play for this pot you can get away easy, just bad luck an ace hit when u got KK.

well, if we knew that, it would be easy.

how do you know?

and if we call, we don't have to be >50% to win.

2 callers preflop to a hearty reraise.....caller to a reraise before you reraised that. plus you gotta factor in the online newbie player factor(tendency to play weak aces/call reraises since already have money in).......you gotta be able to let this go.


learn to play the odds of situations along with the player. you gotta look at it more so for the long haul unless you have a strong read on opponent. whether they have it or not isnt as important here, its not a smart chance to take. also harder to bluff weaker players off that weak ace once it hits......bide your time, you will catch them playing that weak ace again sometime when you have an ace with stronger kicker.

you got an overcard, stop looking at it like KK OMG we can never fold this, but play it like a middle pair. you dont have very many outs from here and you are most likely behind.

you dont have to be +50 to win to call, but you should have a hand in one of these categories....

1. best hand at this point
2. probable best hand at this point
3. draw to the best hand
4. draw to the probable best hand

KK here is neither of these.....any play made here would be a bluff plain and simple(at a full table, rules change short handed)

not sure why you think I'm looking at it like OMG we have KK here.
I just wanted a better idea from you how often you think we are behind

If it's 60%, we can call.

If your style is to not take marginal edges, then maybe you don't call off getting 2:1, even if you think you are good 40% of the time.





why?

how can you say the pot is laying 2:1 assuming we play for our stack here and think we have to be drawing to the best hand?

what you are implying is that we are not ahead 33-40%.
Fine, that's a fair opinion

The rest is nonsense.
If the pot is laying the right price, we don't have to be drawing to nor have the best hand nor probable best.


again, if nutpeddling is more your style, fine.

And, I'm not saying this is a call..I just dont' understand the idea of ignoring 2:1 odds here.

no you are losing a lot more than 60% of the time here based on the preflop play, in a 10 handed game there is only a 15% chance that noone holds an ace preflop(sorry dont know percentage 8 handed) and based on the preflop action you absolutely must give them credit for at least 1 ace. only time to play this hand after this flop is really if the game is short handed, or if you know you opponent respects your bets and views you as a tight player so much that if you bet he would fold if he did not have a decent ace.



no not nut peddling, but if you dont have any of these 4 hands what exactly do you mean to do with the hand other than bluff(this wouldnt be a good spot to bluff)? first of all you are not including 4th and 5th street in your odds calculations......if you calculate the bets that will surely come it will cost you alot more. also you should be drawing for the best hand(or probable) if you are calculating pot odds before the river.



you dont really have any draw here, and you are probably behind. you would just be at his mercy the whole hand and be paying him off for no reason........if the ace had come on the river or turn THEN you could use pot odds to make a call and maybe be ahead(you would also have more information), on the flop its easy to throw it away.

Holyfield.

He is including all bets that would go in on the river. Ie, the rest of my stack. We are getting 2-1 to call down.

This means our hand has to be good 1/3 times.

Pot odds do not relate only to draws. Just because we COULD only have 2 outs does not mean that we lay down. Sometimes we have the best hand, sometimes we don't.

If the combination of % of having the best hand + % of hitting our outs is high enough, then we can call off. That % would have to be 33% in this case, but you can't just use absolutes like you are.

Again, not saying we can call here, but just explaining some theory.

- Zach

ok.
Now I see where you are coming from.
Of course if you assume we are behind over 60%, ( 85%??) than calling a turn bet is pretty bad, unless it's really small and we expect them to check the river.
At first, I was not sure you thought we were more than 40% behind.

***********************************

Zach,

another thing to cosider is: How much does a turn and river bet impact the likelihood we are behind. That is, maybe preflop & flop tells us we are 40% (just saying); however, if we only get more $$$ in the pot from Ax, then we are not really getting 2:1. But, would TT/QQ be just as likley to take a stab now as Ax would have been to check the turn and weak bet now? And the river bet...?

************************************

I lean to fold here; but I did not think it was as clear cut as some.

But when we check the flop we're inviting non-Aces to steal.
Can we fold for $25?
In retrospect is any flop bet better?

ok i didnt realize he calculated for all your chips, i didnt pay enough attention but the rest of my post still stands.

i generally use odds for waiting for draws to straights and flushes etc.(sometimes on the river if my opponent has me stumped) even less in tournaments unless big stack. one side note, the odds like this(non-drawing hand type) are a very deceptive thing and basically the cornerstone of poker.....dont base calls like this off of odds, base them on odds based on reads otherwise you will lose a whole lot of money. you have to get a read here to see where you stand, if you think you are ahead go with it, if you think you are behind either bluff or fold but i suggest fold in this spot, pick better spots, maybe even show the KK if you are playing with some loose guys and you want them to think they can bully you.

if a ton of players are in the hand someone definitely has the ace, if only a couple or 1 other then you wont be making enough for the risk. if you are just madly in love with the hand and wanna try to get fancy bet the flop and fold if challenged.

using them pot odds here to me seems completely arbitrary and looks like just a way to justify bad calls. calculating your percentage to win is based on your reads and at this point any calls skew the odds of you being behind well against you and you could find a better spot to bluff or call all your chips away on the turn and river. you should just cut your losses i think and not invest possibly everything on this type of hand.

holyfield,

but you are using pot odds implicitly, whether you call it that or not.

Say each opponent only had $5 left each.
You'd call any bets from them on this flop right?

Getting like 16:1.

see?

I know, you are either ahead or behind.
You aren't "drawing with pot odds here"
But you still are using them as you decide whether or not you are ahead enough to call

yeh your right technically but you understand what im saying. i personally dont do math in these situations, im more general since i dont like to calculate with such vagueness.

yes, I understand.
good discussion