Ok, I have about 5000 or so in chips, I'm in the BB with Jd3d. Blinds are at 300/600. There's like 7 people left. Top 3 pay.
2 people limp and it's not like they have large stacks either. Sb folded. So there's 2100 in the pot.
Flop is K36 all spades.
I check. 1st limper checks. Button goes all in.
I never played with this guy. Anyway, I try to figure out what he has, I ask a few questions, and then after he says a few things I put him on a flush draw. Anyway, he goes all in for 1800. So theres 3900 in the pot. I figure if I call and lose I still have a decent chip stack, if I win then I will have a very good shot at the money.

So just some questions.
1. Would you call if you knew (like 99% positive) he didn't have a pair and was on a flush draw?
2. What are the percentages? Am I behind if he has like Ax or Kx?

1) Yes. 2/1 when you are 45% to win is awesome. Hard to get that strong a read though.
2) Worst case scenario given no pair no flush is 32% against 45o with 1 spade. Against most other single spade combinations you are roughly between 52% and 47%

That's the good news. Here's the bad news. That is BEST case scenario. If you are against anything but a naked spade you are a big underdog.

If I knew he had a flush draw then yes I would call because it is basically a coinflip and my pot equity is ~30%. We're slight dogs to A/Q flush draws and slight favorites to all others. Remember that he's not only drawing to a flush, because he undoubtedly has two overs to our weak pair; but it doesn't really matter, because we're getting such a good price.

However I fold here almost every time because against the most likely holding (against most opponents), a pair of kings, we're a 4-1 dog.

I've been able to get reads on people pretty good lately either by watching their eyes or asking some probing questions. At first, I wasn't real positive in trusting my reads, basically because they've been very difficult situations. But I knew that I had to trust them sooner or later. Since I was right the first time, I haven't swayed from them yet.

3s can get counterfeited also. If youre up against just a big spade and an X nonspade you are 58:42 dog. I would put myself at a 7:3 dog in this hand...still a marginal call, and given the strength of the stack you'll have if you pull it out it may be worthwhile to take thes hot. It depends on how you feel playing from the small stack when you most likely lose.

Where do you get these figures from?

pokerstove

I assume you take that as As with any kicker, even if it makes a pair? If the guy has a pair it changes things.

For the 58:42? I did include A6 and A3, but not AK, AQ or AJ if I remember right, since he may have played them stronger preflop

Yeah, thought so. You're just under even money if the guy doesn't have a pair, but if you include the pairs then you drop down to 42ish.

Yeah, I basically wanted to know if I was a dog in this situation. Wasn't too sure about it. I figured I was probably a dog, but not by that much. Well, I called. He had As8x, my pair held up and he was out. He was pretty pissed too that I called, he couldn't believe that I called there.

sounds like hes a NL player who doesnt understand tourneys. Its a pretty clear fold in a cash game.

Actually, I made the same kind of call in a cash game. I had bottom pair, checked around to me, I bet out, one player calls. Turn came, the guy went all in for like $40, and it was only a $20 pot. I looked at him trying to figure out what he had and how the turn helped him. I even told him I had a pair of 3s (bottom pair). Then he looked down at my chips when I started to grab them and I made the call. He had like A-something, complete bluff. My pair held up.