Stacks: Hero - $300 Villain - $600

Villain is a young kid who has played a very solid TAG game in the hour since I had been at the table. He was not afraid to make or call big bets, and clearly understood the intricacies of the game.

After one limper, Hero raises to $12 with J T . The button calls, Villain calls from the BB, and the limper calls.

FLOP ($49): J T 6

Villain bets $15 and Limper raises to $30. Hero re-raises to $115. Button folds, Villain calls and the Limper folds.

TURN ($309): K

Villain leads for $165, which would basically put me all-in. Hero ...

What is the play here?

What hands do you put Villain on to weak lead, call a big raise, and then push?

Thanks.

KQ is my favorite guess.

He suspects you're going to set him in, anyway, so his range is pretty wide. He could have just a couple of hearts and figures that he's going to have call of all his money if he checks, so might as well take a stab.

I think you have to get all in here, with this pot size.

I think he could easily have AK of hearts here, the weak bet on the flop shows he wants to build a big pot IMO because he's very confident in his draw. And when the King hit, he probably thought he made the best hand and if not he had a bunch of outs. He also could have been pushing with KJ

I'd be thinking A Q

He's got 12 outs after the flop. better than 50/50 to win this pot so his pot odds are great and putting you all in ensures that.
Had he had A K he probably would have re-raised preflop, but maybe not. If he put you on A-J, A-10 that board would give you alot of outs

For him to just call your $115 re-raise probably means he knows you have top pair and that King DID help him but he wants to trap and didn't want the limper to fold.

He knows you are not on a flush draw because your raise shows that you made a hand or are bluffing.. either one suites him fine.
His $15 bet wants you to think he's feeling out the table, Limper raises to try to take control and you fall into his trap.

...he has the nuts..

I think a few people putting the villain on a strong draw are ignoring that our villain, to whom our Hero gives a lot of credit for being a tough player, led on the turn. We need to look at a few things more closely here.

If I have AhQh/AhJh/8h9h here, I can justify calling Hero's re-raise because I know that his hand is likely already made and if I hit my draw, I'm stacking him.
Why am I leading this turn though? If I don't have a piece of the board yet on the turn, it has likely given me a few more outs, and with our Hero skittish after his big re-raise was called, I'm checking to see how cheap I get to see this river.

I could have KQoff or KJ here, but eh..not really consistent with our play if we are tough. Flat calling a re-raised pot with top pair or a beatable straight draw is very -EV and a decent player should know that.

I think the small lead on the flop, coupled with the big flat-call and turn lead when the K comes bodes strongly for KhQh or a set.

KhQh: We flopped a monster draw, and we're trying to build the pot a bit. Hopefully AJ/KJ/89 or another KQ will call/raise and we'll get more money in here. The K turned, and I'm going to give this potential AJ/J10 etc. a chance to fold in case the river bricks. He can't really call this bet; he pushes or folds.

Set: We played this passively against a loose table, hoping this pot gets bigger and knowing that while a flush draw is present, I'm going to make more money bringing them along to a brick turn and then dropping the hammer against someone who can't get away from their draw. The K coming off may have slightly improved somebody, so we're going to make them pay now (although the bet is only half the pot, it probably commits most of the stacks at this table still in the hand.)

Getting back to your original question, you have 6 outs to a boat and you're getting 4:1. Very read-dependent on the call here. If Villain has a set, you're fcked and you have to fold. KQ, you're 50/50 and this is an insta-call. I lean toward calling (pushing).

This was the first thing that threw me off. I was totally anticipating a check, to which I was going to push.



This is what made the fact that he led the turn so intriging. After seeing my reraise on the flop, I think the minimum he could put me on would be two pair or maybe AA. He knows that I think I have the best hand.


By that logic, would it follow that he would only push if he wanted to be called?


After the action on the flop I thought I had to put him on a monster draw. I took the weak lead to be a way of building a pot and hoping to get the next card cheap. The big drawing hands here would be:

8h9h, Qh9h, KhQh, AhQh, or AhKh.

Because he had shown the ability reraise preflop, even OOP, I ruled out A K . While 8 9 made sense preflop, it didn't after his bet on the turn.

Therefore, only Q 9 , K Q , and A Q seemed plausible. I am drawing to four outs against two of those hands and if it is K Q I would have to dodge 20 outs on the river.

This is the thought process that led me to fold. Anyone see any flaws? Did I give the Villain too much credit?

He did show his hand which I will reveal after a little more discussion.

Again, I don't think a strictly-drawing hand makes a lot of sense. Even if he was a favorite to win the hand against a pair, he would try to see the river cheaply.

And, I still think a set is reasonable.

A set is not reasonable given the flop play. Our hero reraised to 115 with two players in so there is little danger of "losing him."

KJ is also unreasonable because our read is that he is solid and a solid player does not call a large bet from two raisers out of position with TPGK.

For some reason everyone assumes this kid has the nut draw, but given that he was in the big blind, weak led the flop, called a giant reraise and improved when the K fell indicates he has a K high flush draw.

All the money goes in on the turn.

Ya i have to agree with most everyone money goes in on turn if your beat your beat your going the times you beat wtih top two on a flop like that you should be going broke or your costing your self money.

plus thers what about 300 in the middle + his 165 so 465 i really don't see how you can get away from this risking 165 with top two on the flop and getting almost 3:1 on your money at this stage.

I think its more likely he checks to you if he has AQ of hearts he woudl have very little to fear by giving a free card and would most likely figure you to put all the money in the middle if he checks.

So.. we going to find out what he had?

Villain showed K Q .

...and the river was...