Stacks (starting with SB=you)
SB 8500
BB 6000
UTG 2000
BTN 3500
10-player SnG
You have 8500 chips and are on SB(100) with Kc 4c
Folded to you.
You call
BB calls (Pot 400)
Flop Kd 4d 9s
You bet 200
BB raises to 400
You bet 1,000 more (Pot now 2,000)
BB pushes
4,600 for you to call, blinds go to 400 on next hand.
Folding would still leave you with 7,100 chips.
Calling and winning will give you a very good chance of winning the tourney outright (14,500 chips).

BB has been moderately aggressive throughout the tournament, so he could certainly be on a flush draw, but you believe it is unlikely that he has made a set, as he would have likely raised or pushed preflop. K9 seems like your worst possibility, if you call.

raise preflop with your stack size and situation


If still in this situattion i push him all in

Well, it's not like I had K3...

But I suppose a suited King could be worth raising PF when folded to. But there had been a lot of stealing going on that the table, so it seemed like an opportunity to slow things down. Oh well, that's hindisight.

Anyway, did you mean that you would have pushed after his bet of 400? Or did you mean call (his push)?

Easy call with two pair.

I'm guessing you called, and they had a flush draw and hit it.

It's quite possible that this is a 60/40 situation. I am most likely a favorite, but is it worth taking that risk on the bubble with one shortstack about to get even shorter? It's also possible (though more remote) that I am beat on the flop.

I would say that it is worth risking. I just want to be certain of why. I would say that I probably had a 50% chance of winning the tournament with that hand, and perhaps a 30% chance of going out on the bubble, but that's just my guessing. If I folded, I would probably give myself a 30-35% chance of winning, with a smaller, perhaps 15-20%, chance of bubbling, but I'd probably be 80% to be somewhere in the money.

But those numbers are just pulled out of my rear, after having a feel for the other players. I can't say that I thought of all of that before deciding to fold/call.

Now, assuming that those percentages actually mean something, (c'mon just make the assumption), couldn't we then break this down into an actual table of probabilities and pay-outs?

Let's see (10+1 buy-in):

if I call (and it's a 60/40):
50% X (50) = 25 (1st)
35% X (20+30) = 17.5 (2nd or 3rd)
15% X 0 = 0.00 (bubble)
--------
implied avg pay-off, if I call = 42.50

if I fold:
30% X (50) = 15.00 (1st)
50% X (20+30) = 25.00 (2nd or 3rd)
20% X 0 = 0.00 (bubble)
--------
implied avg pay-off if I fold = 35.00

I'm not Actuary, and I'm not an actuary, either. But this seems like a decent way to view the situation. If not, please explain why. Perhaps I'm over-valuing or undervaluing some percentages, but it seems fairly reasonable to make the fold. If anyone has a better idea what those percentages might actually be, feel free to make suggestions. Yes, my biggest mistake may have been not taking the pot sooner, but that's hindsight.

(There's your 7 paragraphs)

EDIT: Changed "call" percentage to 15% for bubbling from 30% (i.e. call and lose then bubble = 30%, whereas it's probably very small if I win the hand)

EDIT 2: I suck. I was subtracting the buy-in from every potential place, which was also wrong. Perhaps the buy-in is not relavent at all.

EDIT 3: Buy-in should not be subracted until the end, or not at all. Groan.

If BB is me, fold.
I'm never pushing in there afer your raise to 1000 with a range you are good against.

*****************

against most dummies that gamble too much here, you can call.

I agree with RT, raise preflop. Kx is a good hand BvB, but not one that is likely to make a lot of money, so take down the blinds, or at least know hes got some value.

I have a lot of trouble figuring out what he could be playing like this that doesnt beat you, unless he is way overplaying top pair. If you call and lose you are giving up a good shot at first, and probably 2d and 3rd as well. Win and 1st becomes extremely likely. Those are pretty good odds!

It comes down to reads and a coin flip, given the hands that a decent player would be playing this way. A preflop raise that was called would give you a lot more comfort here.

QFT on both...

EDIT: Removed post and restated: Folding may be not be a bad play. Overall, I'm perhaps likely to get about 20% more money by calling, if he is on some type of 60/40 draw.



It was YOU!

I probably make the call here, I don't think he's pushing a flush draw here. It almsot smells as if he has like AA as much as he pushed. Or he could really be overplaying top pair here. Either way, even if you lose here you would still have
2500 left, which I don't think it's that bad at this stage. If you win then you have a dominant chip lead and should be able to at least take 2nd. I think the good far outweighs the bad here. I'd call.

What was me?

Raise pre-flop. What was the Buy-in? This is an easy call, though.

no it's not.

not at all.

not against me in BB.

BB has to suck pretty bad for this to be an easy call, imo

You were the dumbass that pushed me into this decision! How else would you know if he never showed?

It was a joke.

If you folded it was me...
If you called and I won it was me...
If you called and won it definately wasn't me...

just kidding, it wasn't me because I don't play 10 person SnG's...

EDIT: oh you were joking that it was me... I thought you meant the whole thread was one big joke...

I agree that BB has to suck pretty bad for this to be an easy call. There are a lot of possible holdings that BB could have that has us beat here. I doubt that BB has a draw, that would be just stupid to push on a draw right now on the bubble. What was the buy-in anyway? If it's low stakes, I'd probably call. Like I said, even if we lose this hand I think we're still in good shape compared to everyone else. Besides, there aren't going to be many times that you hit a flop this hard. I still think that BB has like AA or overplaying top pair.

What info do we have on BB anyway? Has he shown down alot of hands? Have they been solid hands? Does he play top pair this hard?

Likewise, not against me. Plus, I would be more likely to play something tricky pre-flop. As stupid as some may think it, I might even check K9, KK, 99, or 44 as BB in this situation, just so that you have absolutely no read on my hand, then if I hit trips, I may break you. Likewise, I may have something like Qd/10d, and I may be assuming that you have only top-pair, meaning if you call, it's about a coin-flip.

But I couldn't see this guy doing that. I hadn't seen him slow-play anyone, but perhaps he just didn't want ME to hit MY flush (which I didn't have, but he doesn't know that).

This is almost completely read dependant. Obvious (but important) factors.

If you are up against someone who overplays TP or a flush draw then call.
If you think this table is pretty tough, and aren't sure that you can outplay others, call.
If you are up against someone who's more rocky, fold.
If you are confident you can outplay opponents, fold.
If he's tricky and it's hard for you to put him on a hand, shoot yourself for not raising preflop.

For those saying it's an easy call, I think you are wrong. When viewing our situations if we call/win (14,500), call/lose (2,500), and simply fold (7,100), I personally might fold, knowing I still easily make the money and have a very good shot at winning. Then again I'm pretty confident in my short-handed play.

So how tough do you think the table was, and how well do you play short-handed?

This is a ridiculous way to play any flopped set, the only hand that I can see the villain playing this way and actually being ahead is K9... and if you fold because you're scared of K9 then play me heads up...

you want all the chips in on the flop.

I agree with all but this.

If we can't outplay table on average, we should fold here and have 7k.




why?
no more ridiculous than jamming with less than K9.
Maybe FD +pair

Again, I'll bust you if I'm BB here.
well, almost

I've never played a S&G in my life where bb was anywhere close to smart enough to make this tough.

Perhaps it is one big joke, but not for any reasons that were intentional.

I just like analyzing plays and getting to the bottom of why I do what I do. Right now, a lot of what I do is probably based on instinct and reads, more than anything else. Yes, it is possible to get reads from online opponents, even though you can't see them twitching. But anyway, there are solid mathematical reasons for making certain decisions, and sometimes it's nice to know the penalty for making a certain decision, even if your gut tells you to do it anyway.

In this case, the penalty for folding (after my 3rd edit) is probably not more than $7.50. The pay-off/penalty for calling depends on what your opponent has. It's unknown.

RE your fold situations...
What hand are you putting a rock on exactly? KK? 99? with no preflop raise when he knows it's heads up?

If you are confident you can outplay your opponents you should be able to recognize that you are being outplayed if you fold and you should check your confidence levels and call ... I'm a firm believer in picking better spots... but they don't get much better than this...

EDIT: THIS IS A SMALL STAKES SnG...

As for your chip counts... the blinds are still low enough that you're far from out of it with 2500 left if you call and lose...





No you wouldn't you'd raise preflop...

No dude,

but the blinds are worth 400.

I'm stealing these, thats why i raise.

P.s. Dont slow things down.

not necessarily

44, K9, Ad9d

no, I'd likely check.

I'd check 99 a lot.
Keep pot small, in pos, no need to tangle with leader.

I play very much to cash.

Indeed, something like 9d Td against KX (which he probably thinks I have) is nearly a coin-flip, and it's not necessarily a bad move for him to make, even if I had raised preflop. Imagine if I had raised preflop and he figured I had something like KJ. For him to push at that point isn't a bad move if he thinks I just have TP/TK and I am trying to bully him into folding his draw. If that was the case, I would hopefully fold, and he made an excellent play at a time in the tourney where I don't want to call-off 75% of my stack.

no he said you'd raise preflop.

9,9 4,4, and K,9 would all be raised preflop if you were BB, i'm sure of it, why let SB complete and and ccheck 1 of these hands?

i can see K,9 but thats abotu it

maybe you missed the part where I said I don't tangle with chip leaders when I'm sitting pretty comfortably and in pos here.

I would not raise 44 preflop
Ad9d, maybe. Depends on likelihood of picking pot up right there
K9, never.
99 70/30, raise/check'

I'm very very passive in that situation.

Thank you, the f'in cavalry has finally arrived..




If you are passive and don't like to tangle with the chip leader, you'd wouldn't reraise and push all in either...

Once again I agree with the concepts of A:Avoiding the chip leader and B:Waiting for better spots, but both of these don't apply here...

of course I"d push 44/99 here
K9 too.
9d + Xd maybe.

I'm passive preflop but will exploit big edges post.

Ha... it's funny how you talk with so much confidence when you talk about having K9, when it's hardly different from K4... if you don't raise 99 preflop you're opinion shouldn't count anyways...

Wow. Do you always play in such a way that someone can put you on a particular hand? I can think of 5,600 reasons to check 99 here and hope for that small shot at doubling up. I guess that's what makes it an occasionally useful play.

Pushing K9 is much different than calling with K4.
Especially when you consider what the BB is risking here.

Not raising 99 from BB means my opinon should not count?
Pretty sure my opinion here carries as much weight as yours.
And will continue to.

I play a different style than you.
I've played over 830 off the STT's in last 4-5 months.
And cash 30% above the average ( i.e. 39% in 10 Man, and 43% in 6 Man)
Pretty much understand the game at the lower stakes.
Obviously many others are better and play many many more.
But to ignore my opinion is laughable.

Yes in most cases I do, there's really no need to get tricky here, you have an opportunity to take the pot down, it's a brutal play to check here heads up against a tall stack, unless you are maybe down to Heads up, otherwise it's a guaranteed raise...

but I suppose you like to limp with AA every once in a while to mix up your play.... and then you post about bad beats... You don't need to be as tricky as you'd like to be... especially when you post as many questions as you do... (disclaimer: I think it's great that you question a lot, I think it's one of the keys to always improving your play.. whether you win or lose...)



Obviously it was tongue in cheek...

But I don't see how you can justify checking with 99.

Bear in mind you are pushing with K 9 against a re-raise of your raise so it's not much different...

As for your track record, congratulations, that's not bad... but it doesn't affect your strategy on this hands... my track records not half bad either... ... you want to measure **** length now?

I noted my track record is easily beateable, of course.
But I think a lot about the game and generally, know something.

fwiw, I LRR AA/KK almost all the time now from EP.
Last night it burned me.
Usually, it makes more than open raisng from UTG, in my experience, given most tables

Why do I care about picking up 400 here?
Sure, it's nice
But raising to 800 ?
I get called.
Pretty much sux.
I seem to run into a lot of chip leaders that are not folding preflop to normal raises. My emphasis is on mainitining a strong pos, not gaining 400t here.

I do raise sometimes.

We have Top2 post flop with K9.
We have 99 preflop.
And a much bigger pot
And you can't see difference ?

You misread my post... the not much difference part was in response to you saying you would push with K9 with no difficulty... I'm saying the situation with K4 is not much different...

As for not caring about picking up 400 chips... meh, I don't want to go down that road, and I think I'm about down here...

you later made the comparision, it appears between me checknig with 99 with no info vs pushing with K9 after a raise by SB to 1000, no? And the K4 vs K9 was addressed as a gap theory response and more importantly, the risk BB is taking here. Seriously, regardless of how poorly I may play preflop according to you, this post flop push would be a bad call for K4 overall, against me.

*********

maybe Strategy was right
I'm a bit sensitive to criticism

I need to stay psyched for tonights home tournies.
Dont' bust my balls!!!!

Ok, I want to make it clear, I respect anyone who's willing to discuss/debate strategy and nothing's personal...

Yeah you did misunderstand what I was trying to get at or I miswrote what I was trying to get at...

I wasn't comparing the play with 99 with anything, that was isolated input... I believe in every circumstance you should raise in the BB if it is folded to you and the blinds and the SB limp calls... the only way around this is if it's live and the guys calls and shows you both his hole cards and they are 10 10 JJ QQ KK or AA...

I was trying to say that you seem to show extreme confidence with K9 in the situation, and yet you are saying to fold K4 ... which doesn't make much sense... because either way we are talking about a bet, raise, reraise before the decision that we are debating... it's the reraise that in my mind makes it a very similar situation whether you are in the SB with K9 or the BB with K4...

Your posts are generally well reasoned, as opposed to someone simply saying "You're probably a favorite to win. Call." Those posts mean very little.

So as I stated yesterday, I appreciate your posts. I think others do as well, but they're not saying so because it "shows weakness" or something. And to others, feel free to underestimate me at your own risk. For once, this is a thread for which I'm not embarrassed.

cool, yeah, nothing personal.
I love debating.

Do you see how much more the BB is risking though?
And thus how much his push needs to be respected?
He knows we like our hand enough to raise to 1000, and he still pushes.

Had we pushed with K4 after BB raised to 400, I"d be cool with that, especially, if we know BB to be a loose caller. I would not push, but just saying.

Here, BB"s range is much more narrow.

SB would be raising to 1000 with many more hands with that stack than BB is pushing back with .

"I believe in every circumstance you should raise in the BB if it is folded to you and the blinds and the SB limp calls"

wow....way to general and rigid. Stacks sizes might certainly dictate otherwise, and (I always give Strategy credit for this, even if it wasnt him that pointed it out) pros will rarely raise BB with an A. With position against SB and playing an A slow he can extract a lot of chips. I'll also almost never raise small pair in a B vs B situation where SB has a decent stack. If I dont hit the set Ive kept the pot small, and can get away from it if SB represents that he caught a bigger piece, or if his c/b is small enough I can call with some decent implied odds. When I do hit the set SB can go for a big number.

Unless stacks dictate otherwise I'll almost always raise with QT, QJ, K7+. Early on I'll raise with garbage to see if SB is a habitual folder, but if he shows any fortitude at all, I'll just see later flops for free.

I play pretty tricky when play gets shot handed in the 10-man SNG's. I will often check AA or KK in BB if there is just one limper (especially against someone with a bigger stack, although not usually when I'm in 2nd chip position). 99 not as much, but I can still see it being done. K9 probably. 44 maybe, depends on opponent.

The point is that I don't think any of those hands can really be discounted at this point. Actuary made a great point that the BB needs a much better hand to Raise/Push than we do to bet/RR. I think he would just call or fold to our reraise with TP or flush draw. Only hands I think we beat here are a pair w/flush draw, gut shot w/flush draw, or maybe bottom 2 pair.

It hasn't really been mentioned, but in this situation I think his min-raise to 400 shows a lot of strength when coupled with his push when we reraise.

That comment was regarding how to play the hand 99...

ahhh.my bad