I know that we don't usually post the results right away, but there are enough different decisions to make here that it just makes it easier to post the whole HH
Background: Short stack is a good player. He's been pushing the button very regularly - the last time he was called he had 56 and made a straight, so he clearly has a large range.
Big stack isn't a total donk, but has also gotten ridiculously lucky on having overparis to build his huge stack.
I've been very card dead preflop so I look pretty darn weak-tight.
Payouts: 3rd is like 450, 2nd 720, 1st 1080 (something like that)
Here's the hand:
Seat 2: therrinn (33298 in chips)
Seat 3: Capt Bones (222992 in chips)
Seat 8: TopfliteXL (13710 in chips)
therrinn: posts the ante 150
Capt Bones: posts the ante 150
TopfliteXL: posts the ante 150
therrinn: posts small blind 1500
Capt Bones: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to therrinn [Kd 9c]
TopfliteXL: raises 10560 to 13560 and is all-in
therrinn: calls 12060
Capt Bones: calls 10560
*** FLOP *** [9d 5d 7s]
therrinn: checks
Capt Bones: checks
*** TURN *** [9d 5d 7s] [Ad]
therrinn: checks
Capt Bones: bets 9000
therrinn: calls 9000
*** RIVER *** [9d 5d 7s Ad] [Qs]
therrinn: checks
Capt Bones: bets 12000
therrinn: folds
TopfliteXL said, "gg"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Capt Bones: shows [8d Qd] (a flush, Ace high)
Capt Bones said, "gg"
Capt Bones collected 18000 from side pot
TopfliteXL: shows [Qh Ac] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
Capt Bones collected 41130 from main pot
Thoughts on all streets would be appreciated.
Full Version: Interesting 180-sng Hand
I would fold preflop. Using the 10-1 rule the BB should call with any 2, and you can hopefully move up a spot without risking any of your very small stack. Even if he doesn't know, or adhere by the 10-1 rule as told by DH, he'll still probably call any 2 with a stack like that and getting decent odds against a player who is obviously pushing any 2 cards from the button (with an M of <3). At this point you want that small stack out of there so you can take a shot at making a big comeback heads-up, and you definitely don't want to triple him up.
I would probably push top pair K-kicker on the flop having called as you did. You're likely well ahead of the short stack and are in a good spot to pick up a much-needed pot going into heads-up. If the big stack calls you and wins it's quite likely that his hand beats you both and you get 2nd place anyways. By my math he's getting about 3-1 so he may also call you with mediocre hands like A-high or a small pair and stack you.
Since you didn't push the flop, the rest seems fine to me. You're getting about 5-1 on the turn with the nut draw and a pair, and are obviously beat on the river.
I would probably push top pair K-kicker on the flop having called as you did. You're likely well ahead of the short stack and are in a good spot to pick up a much-needed pot going into heads-up. If the big stack calls you and wins it's quite likely that his hand beats you both and you get 2nd place anyways. By my math he's getting about 3-1 so he may also call you with mediocre hands like A-high or a small pair and stack you.
Since you didn't push the flop, the rest seems fine to me. You're getting about 5-1 on the turn with the nut draw and a pair, and are obviously beat on the river.
I agree with TW. Securing 2d is the priority in this payout structure, and while short stack doubling up against big stack isnt great for you, him tripling up and you losing 1/2 your stack is a disaster.
Youre laying huge $EV odds and getting past both hands with K9 is a coinflip at best.
Youre laying huge $EV odds and getting past both hands with K9 is a coinflip at best.
QUOTE (copernicus @ Wednesday, August 23rd, 2006, 8:02 AM) 
I agree with TW. Securing 2d is the priority in this payout structure, and while short stack doubling up against big stack isnt great for you, him tripling up and you losing 1/2 your stack is a disaster.
Youre laying huge $EV odds and getting past both hands with K9 is a coinflip at best.
Youre laying huge $EV odds and getting past both hands with K9 is a coinflip at best.
ditto, the end
whats with the flop check. were you hoping to try and make him bluff at a dry side?
More importantly, why are you playing 20/180s instead of practicing for Sunday??? 
Ok, my thought process:
I knew that my number 1 goal there was to get second place. Obviously it would be great to double up and make a run, but the extra money from 3rd to second outweighed the off chance that I would catch enough of a heater to put myself back into serious contention.
The shortie had been playing short for a while, staying alive with a combination of all ins not getting called and winning the times that he was called. His stack fluctuated between 10-20k. In the same time I had dropped from 65k to 33k. This was mainly because each time I put pressure, the big stack would reraise me, and I didn't have a hand above Q whereas he would show AK or TT after I laid it down. With a 33k chip stack, I couldn't make much of an aggressive move without risking not getting second. Again, play for first, blah blah - I maintain that I was right in playing for second here.
So, onto the hand in question. His range was literally any two cards. He'd been jamming with everything from 56 to pocket jacks. He has an effective M of 1. Looking at that, my K9 was likely to be the best hand.
So, he moves in, if I fold we have 3 options:
i) BB folds -> villain has 18k stack.
ii) BB calls and wins -> shore up second place money.
iii) BB calls and loses -> villain has 28k stack and is effectively tied with me.
Obviously option iii) is a disaster for me. Option i) is also pretty bad, because it means I lose 4500 in the next orbit when the big stack jams my blind, so I'm down to 29k.
If I call and lose, I'm down to 20k, and villain is up to 30k. That's really not that much worse than if I fold and villain wins the blinds. We're getting to a point where one of the two of us is going to have to win a hand and double up to take second.
If I call and win, then that's great, that's a nice boost to my modest stack, and much more importantly, I get second place money. Given that I place utmost importance on knocking the shortie out, then having the big stack call is ideal, as a random hand is unlikely to fare well against my good hand and whatever the big stack calls with.
When the big stack called, I knew that I wasn't going to be putting any more chips into the pot unless I was very comfortable with my hand. The flop was good for me, but did I want to bet the big blind off his hand? Nope. My holding on the flop was still very vulnerable to overcard outs. Again, I'm trying to maximise my chances of coming second.
The call on the turn was a combination of favorable pot odds, plus I was slightly worried that the big stack was only betting an Ace, so I wanted to have the nut flush draw as another out against the shortie. I figured the big stack had the flush on the turn, but I think the call is the safe move on the turn.
On the river I was convinced he had the flush or a set - doesn't really make sense for him to bet anything else there.
I knew that my number 1 goal there was to get second place. Obviously it would be great to double up and make a run, but the extra money from 3rd to second outweighed the off chance that I would catch enough of a heater to put myself back into serious contention.
The shortie had been playing short for a while, staying alive with a combination of all ins not getting called and winning the times that he was called. His stack fluctuated between 10-20k. In the same time I had dropped from 65k to 33k. This was mainly because each time I put pressure, the big stack would reraise me, and I didn't have a hand above Q whereas he would show AK or TT after I laid it down. With a 33k chip stack, I couldn't make much of an aggressive move without risking not getting second. Again, play for first, blah blah - I maintain that I was right in playing for second here.
So, onto the hand in question. His range was literally any two cards. He'd been jamming with everything from 56 to pocket jacks. He has an effective M of 1. Looking at that, my K9 was likely to be the best hand.
So, he moves in, if I fold we have 3 options:
i) BB folds -> villain has 18k stack.
ii) BB calls and wins -> shore up second place money.
iii) BB calls and loses -> villain has 28k stack and is effectively tied with me.
Obviously option iii) is a disaster for me. Option i) is also pretty bad, because it means I lose 4500 in the next orbit when the big stack jams my blind, so I'm down to 29k.
If I call and lose, I'm down to 20k, and villain is up to 30k. That's really not that much worse than if I fold and villain wins the blinds. We're getting to a point where one of the two of us is going to have to win a hand and double up to take second.
If I call and win, then that's great, that's a nice boost to my modest stack, and much more importantly, I get second place money. Given that I place utmost importance on knocking the shortie out, then having the big stack call is ideal, as a random hand is unlikely to fare well against my good hand and whatever the big stack calls with.
When the big stack called, I knew that I wasn't going to be putting any more chips into the pot unless I was very comfortable with my hand. The flop was good for me, but did I want to bet the big blind off his hand? Nope. My holding on the flop was still very vulnerable to overcard outs. Again, I'm trying to maximise my chances of coming second.
The call on the turn was a combination of favorable pot odds, plus I was slightly worried that the big stack was only betting an Ace, so I wanted to have the nut flush draw as another out against the shortie. I figured the big stack had the flush on the turn, but I think the call is the safe move on the turn.
On the river I was convinced he had the flush or a set - doesn't really make sense for him to bet anything else there.
Yeah, looks like you played this well. Given the chip stacks and payouts, this is one of the rare situations where it really is more important for you to check it down and eliminate a player than it is to try to maximize your own chances of winning the pot.
Nice analysis, but I dont think you are weighting the possible results, making them seem equally probable.
If you fold your stack is $31500
i) never happens...BB cannot fold with that stack. OK, never say never, he hits the wrong button...5% chance, small stack moves up to $18,500
ii) 47.5% of the time he loses, since they are both on random hands. You win second place, he has 0 chips.
iii) 47.5% of the time he doubles up+ to 28,500.
The expected value of his stack if you fold is $14500 yours stayed at 31500
Now lets say you call with the intent to fold unless you hit a big flop, which I agree you have to do.
i) if BB folds and you lose, you are down to 19,700, he is up to $28500, but this only happens 5% of the time.
ii) if BB is in, lets say you get that flop you love 10% of the time (a little low maybe, but we are only in this situation with 95% of the hands) and you win 100% of the time (obviously high, so the net shouldnt be far off). Small stack is gone, and youve jumped up to about $60,000.
iii) if BB is in but you have to fold to the flop, BB wins half the time, so 42.5% of the time youve locked up 2d, but your stack is down to 19700.
iv) if BB is in, you fold to the flop, small stack wins 42.5% of the time, and he has tripled up to 41400 while youre down to 19700.
the net of these scenarios has you down to 23,700 and small stack up to 19,100. ...signficantly worse than if you had folded.
What if we triple the chances to 30% that you remain in the hand and still win 100% of the time? This is clearly close to or beyond the upperbound, because you were willing to fold bottom pair, so 15% top pair plus 15% miscellaneous other hands (probably high) and still an assumption of 100% winning, this is a very optimistic scenario. Even so on average youre down to $31,800 and hes up to 14,900, about the same as folding (which is why I picked 30%).
Without doing any more analysis, if you put the two of them both on random hands and recognize that big stack should nearly always play, you probably need a hand that is a favorite to beat 2 random hands, which is quite a bit stronger than K9.
If you fold your stack is $31500
i) never happens...BB cannot fold with that stack. OK, never say never, he hits the wrong button...5% chance, small stack moves up to $18,500
ii) 47.5% of the time he loses, since they are both on random hands. You win second place, he has 0 chips.
iii) 47.5% of the time he doubles up+ to 28,500.
The expected value of his stack if you fold is $14500 yours stayed at 31500
Now lets say you call with the intent to fold unless you hit a big flop, which I agree you have to do.
i) if BB folds and you lose, you are down to 19,700, he is up to $28500, but this only happens 5% of the time.
ii) if BB is in, lets say you get that flop you love 10% of the time (a little low maybe, but we are only in this situation with 95% of the hands) and you win 100% of the time (obviously high, so the net shouldnt be far off). Small stack is gone, and youve jumped up to about $60,000.
iii) if BB is in but you have to fold to the flop, BB wins half the time, so 42.5% of the time youve locked up 2d, but your stack is down to 19700.
iv) if BB is in, you fold to the flop, small stack wins 42.5% of the time, and he has tripled up to 41400 while youre down to 19700.
the net of these scenarios has you down to 23,700 and small stack up to 19,100. ...signficantly worse than if you had folded.
What if we triple the chances to 30% that you remain in the hand and still win 100% of the time? This is clearly close to or beyond the upperbound, because you were willing to fold bottom pair, so 15% top pair plus 15% miscellaneous other hands (probably high) and still an assumption of 100% winning, this is a very optimistic scenario. Even so on average youre down to $31,800 and hes up to 14,900, about the same as folding (which is why I picked 30%).
Without doing any more analysis, if you put the two of them both on random hands and recognize that big stack should nearly always play, you probably need a hand that is a favorite to beat 2 random hands, which is quite a bit stronger than K9.
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