Jordan
Saturday, August 12th, 2006, 5:58 PM
QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Saturday, August 12th, 2006, 5:53 PM)

Ok, well lets do this a different way then.
Based on his turn bet, what do you put his range at?
Does he think you'll fold an overpair to his bet?
We're getting roughly 5-3 to call this bet, so we'd need to win this hand in the end, including us sucking out, or him sucking out, 3/8 times, or more precisely, 38.6% of the time (using the actual bet sizes) to break even.
Do we?
That's the thing about this hand. His range here of what I'm beating is greater than what I'm losing to. I don't like making these kinds of folds here, but when he lead with the overbet I went into I guess, third level thinking on the hand.
For some reason, I gave him credit for picking up on the fact that I had a monster hand, while he had one stronger than that, and he didn't think I could fold my overpair, and would call his all in thinking he was in fact bluffing.
Cause most guys will play this turn differently with trips. Betting weaker, maybe even checking again, but usually leading for something, other than an all in.
I didn't think realistically, JJ/QQ/KK were his hands, cause I think those re-raise PF, especially QQ/KK, and would raise more on the flop to protect.
I think his min raise on the flop could be 22/33/44/55/66/77/88/99/TT
I'm obviously ahead of most of those, so again, when he overbets all in, he might be thinking he is protecting from my AK/AQ. However, I went with an instinct I guess I've picked up on while playing, that being that he read me as very strong, and wanted to sell that he was bluffing with the all in.
That's essentially why I folded this hand...
I have another hand I played against opponent..i'll post it up.
- Jordan