Just had an interesting (i.e. good) hand playing 2/4 limit on Full Tilt Poker. Wouldn't mind Smash and other limit experts to comment on this hand in terms of maximizing profits.

On the button, I'm dealt A Q (which looks very pretty), and the CO raises. I call. BB reraises. Both call.

Flop is 10 J K . BB (who is tight and I'm almost positive has KK, JJ or AK) bets, CO folds. What do you do?


In this case, I smooth called the flop thinking that if the turn was a blank (not a heart, not a broadway card, not pairing the board), I could cap it there safely for maximum profit. I thought that if I raised her bet on the flop, she would've three bet, and if I capped it then she would've probably read me for the AQ.

My only worry, of course, is if the board pairs. I am 75% sure she has KK or JJ, in fact. Of course, she's going to call me with her set no matter how much I bet, and I would have to make some tough choices if the board did pair.

Turn comes turn is 4 :diamond. She bets, I raise, she raises, I cap.

River is 2 , unfortunately. She check/calls it down.

So, my main consideration was whether to raise the flop and cap it then, and hope for her to raise me AGAIN on the turn for more bets. Is this just wishful thinking? How would you play this, you sensei's of medium-limit poker (with hello kitty cartoons)?

Do you normally overthink plays this much?

Cap the flop, you likely loose the chance on the turn if a heart falls.

Well, if it's the difference between 4 $2 bets and 4 $4 bets, I'll consider it. I suppose I was gambling on whether a heart would show up on the turn, and since that will occur less than 1/4 of the time, I wanted to take those odds for maximizing. So you would cap the flop here, and probably just get called down the next two streets? (She had JJ, by the way, whic *may* have gone for a raise on the turn even if the flop was capped, since she probably read me for a flush draw or AK).

So you would cap the flop here, and probably just get called down the next two streets?


Or occasionally I get raised on the turn as well, just as occasionally, you won't get it raised on the turn even when a heartt doesn't fall.

Frankly, I understand your thinking, but I agree with Smash. Besides, if you are really that sure that your opponent has kings or jacks, go ahead with consistent re-raising wars until the board pairs. He's unlikely to slow down on the turn just cause you gave him heavy action on the flop. He may even put you on a set of tens because you just smooth called his raise pre-flop (I'm hoping you wouldn't do that with kings). And if he puts you on a set of tens, you are a happy man. He also might put you on a flush draw trying to raise on the flop hoping to get a free card next round. If that happens, then he'll come out betting a blank on the turn anyway trying to charge you for the flush draw.

i have to agree with smash, jam that flop.

slowplaying is generally not a good idea when you're facing aggression. the idea of slowplaying is "aggression will make the other person fold, so i will slowplay". in this case, aggression would have been probably responded to by more aggression (plus, if you were 75% sure he had KK/JJ, it makes no sense to slowplay... that's the heavenly type of hand you want to be up against). secondly, by slowplaying SUCH a strong hand+redraw, you run a BIG risk of losing the disguise of your hand. like you said, if another broadway or heart fell, the bettor goes into check/call mode and you earn only 2.5 bets from her... wouldn't that be catastrophic?

consider these scenarios where you don't slowplay:

1. you raise pre-flop, bettor calls and goes into check/call mode to showdown. you earn 3 bets.
2. you raise pre-flop, bettor three-bets, you cap. bettor check/calls turn and river. you earn 4 bets.
3. you raise pre-flop, bettor three-bets, you cap. bettor leads out on the turn, you raise, bettor calls and check/calls the river. you earn 5 bets.
4. [same until] bettor three-bets the turn, you cap, bettor check/calls the river, you earn 7 bets.
5. [same until] bettor leads out on river, you raise, she calls, you earn 8 bets.
6. capped on flop, turn and river, you earn a whopping 10 bets.

average of these scenarios is that you earn around 6 bets.

consider these scenarios where you slowplay:

1. bettor check/calls the turn and river (e.g. turn comes a Q or 9h). you earn 2.5 bets.
2. bettor leads out on the turn, you raise, she calls and check/calls the river. you earn 3.5 bets.
3. capped turn, check/called on the river, you earn 5.5 bets.
4. capped turn, lead, raise, call on river, you earn 6.5 bets.
5. capped turn, capped river, you earn 8.5 bets.

average of these five scenarios is that you earn around 5 bets.

that was a very long way of pointing out one thing:

you have position. that means that if you raise, the best she can do is check/call, which earns you an extra bet, but if she three-bets for information, you cap, which earns you three more bets on that street. that means that everytime she leads out, it is either going to cost her two or four bets, and that's a big difference.

finally, consider how many different ways a scare card could have come off:

nine hearts
three aces
three queens
three non-heart nines

total of 15 outs, which means that around 1/3 of the time, she will scurry into check/call mode on the turn. look above... when that happens, you earn the bare minimum of 2.5 bets on the entire hand.

you really can't slowplay this hand.

sorry to make such a long post in what could have been said in just one sentence, i'm super-tired right now and can't wait to get on the bus to go home for break. :-)

aseem

Every time you say pre-flop that I bolded above, did you really mean post-flop?

yes. thanks. :-)

aseem

I've found out that quite often I could have made a lot more money if I just bet the hand straight up, and jam whenever I think I've got the best of it. It's too easy to overthink ourselves... and that often costs us bets, if not the pot. I can't ever see an argument against capping when you have the nuts, one nut draw, and one un-crackable nut re-draw. Especially when, like your read says... they DO have outs to beat you, even if you have an out on that later.