AQ offsuit in utg plus one in the grand prix yesterday. i have 21k in chips which isnt bad but i have like 3 chip leaders at my table with more and blinds are 500-1k. At this point the table has been folding like paper to min raises so i make 2500 and get 2 late position callers (both have me covered) and the bb comeing a long too. Ugh. Where was all that folding that had been going on before ?

The flop comes Q 5 4 with two clubs. The pot is about 11k and i have 18k left.
Whats the move ? All in ? lead for half the pot or less ?

Open push the flop. If you lead 1/2 pot, are you going to fold when one of the big stacks comes over top? Can you guarnatee they don't have KQ or two clubs?

Only hands we're realistically afraid of are 55 and 44. An overpair would have reraised us, and QQ is rather unlikely. If someone wants to call us with a club draw, they need to pay the max.

QFT

i assume the big blind checked the flop to you...

if you're going to bet i would bet much closer to the pot size than half pot size. with 3 other players in the pot you do not want them to have good odds to draw. but saying that, if you bet the pot or close to it, you'll have only about 7k - 9k left. in that case, just shove the flop.

another thing you could try. if you think one of the 2 big stacks would make a play at the pot, you could check raise all in. very dangerous though...

and if you lose to a set here or 2 pair from the big blind. GG savage.

my instincts tell me to push.

the expected payoff from flush draws is higher than by betting say 8k and then wondering where you are on a Club river, or when the club doesn't come and you make 8k. 18k will get called enough to make it more profitable than 8k. And that does not even take into account the hands that fold here with non-flush outs against you.

I'll have to go with the shove here. Any other bet pot commits you and the last thing you want is a bunch of drawers all calling one after the other. Open push should price out any draws; could read like a bluff and a weak Q might call you thinking that you are on a semi-bluff.

Can't really see someone having AA/KK here so you're only in bad shape against 55/44/54. Hopefully no one called with Q5/Q4 cause that would suck.

so its the golden bears...

You know it...you tell the story..you tell the whole damn world this is bear territory..

Hopefully I'll see you at the Neg-O Final Table again this week

yes. hopefully.

and i need to learn that AQ < AK

i open pushed and just as i clicked i had this twinge someone behind me had hit a set. Sure enough one of them flipped over the 44. gg for me. Not really that bummed. The bubble was nearing but FT was still probably 2-3 hours away and that all i really care about making.

i dont regret the play however i did have a thought that 2.5 the bb is not a good amount to raise at a table where people have you covered. 2.5 is offering some nice odds to a small pp and suited connector to see the flop when i just really want the blinds.

yeah and bigger bets are harder to lay down to re-raises

i can muck AQ to a reraise without blinking. its one of the easier hands for me to get away from. Now give me a small pair...and yeah well ive been known to get a bit too saucy with those lol.

I say push on the flop. Why diddle around? Also, if you are going to bet 1/2 pot on flop, do you have a plan if someone calls/reraises? Because you're going to need one. On the flop, you have top pair and the best kicker. Nobody re-raised you preflop, so I think you can eliminate AA, KK and QQ from the mix. My guess is the range they called your 2.5 BB raise with is AK-AT, 99-44, KQs. After eliminating the top pairs, there isn't anything to beat you except for a set of 4's or 5's and who's to say they aren't putting you on QQ for your own top set? If you check, for sure one of the big stax is going to make a play and you'll most likely have to fold to that, unless you have a good read or are very confident with your hand.

personally I would prefer to make a 1/2 pot size bet, but given the information in the OP I would have to say all-in. This hand can be decifered so many ways. If this happened in a live tournament, I would like the smaller bet because I'm fairly confident I can seek out a better hand if it exists. There really isnt anything wrong with letting the flush draw chase as long as you know that it is indeed a flush draw. (The chaser may have pot odds, but you're still favoured to win!) As for the possible set, it has to fear the flush draw as well, so it shouldn't be too hard to find the set if it was flopped.

But I believe this is an online scenario, in which case all-in would be the better move as it is much harder to put players on a hand when you can't see them at all.

This may be just me, but I would lead out with a standard half-pot bet and hope that one of the big stacks would try to push me out. Then I would call faster than Phil Hellmuth. We have TPTK. Wouldn't an all-in bet scare off hands like 99 or QJ that might try to push out my seemingly weak continuation bet? Obviously, the 44 hand would push and knock us out, but we're going broke here no matter what. Others have asked what the plan is if you get raised, but my plan is to go all the way. Yes, it would suck to just get smooth called, but then you re-evaluate on the turn. My guess would be that someone would push on this board as either a semi-bluff or with a weaker hand and I could pick them off. Am I being too trappy? I usually have a problem with that...

Hey orion,

I actually like that thought. If you're going to play the hand, you may as well try to get chips from it. I'm all for making sure I maximize my profits with good hands.

The only problem in my opinion with doing it on this hand is that there are too many cards that can cause you problems. A small bet could even cause AK to call. There are well over 20 cards in the deck that are going to cause you problems. I agree with the decision to make this the hand to push all-in, but may as well get rid of the AK's, flush draws, and possibly Q-J or Q-10's by doing it right after the flop.

trapping one person is ok but potentially giving 3 others a free card with only one pair is not such a good idea especially when the pot before the post flop betting represents more than half of my current stack. i dont care about building a bigger pot at that point.

exactamundo.

I wanted to extract more as well; but that introduces so many more potential problems on the turn, and the pot is already substantial.

I'm not giving anybody a free card, I'm betting half the pot. But my guess is that someone else will push in order to drive out me and any potential draws and I can double up.

Also a previous guy said that a small bet could even allow AK to call. First, half the pot isn't a small bet, and second, I'm thrilled if a guy wants to put money in the pot drawing to 3 outs...

yeah, I glossed over the "free card" part. I took it too mean "giving decent implied odds to hands that expect others to call behind them. Its hard to know with 3 opponents. 1/2 bet may be callable by AK acting last. Anyway, it makes the turn tough; which is th main point. Too many bad cards. I thought about posting this idea: Bet 1/2 pot, call/push a push/raise and push any turn. But, no, with the pot the size it is already, I"d like Flush Draws (and some other hands with 5 outs, etc) to call all in now or, better yet, lay down, rathe than have me killed on the turn or folding correctly.

This is exactly the strategy I was thinking of. I know that it might allow some hands to suck out on you, but I'm usually willing to take that risk. Yeah, I should be happy with the pot as it is, but hey, I'm greedy and want to double up.