NWNewell
Tuesday, August 8th, 2006, 6:09 AM
I don't have too much problem with it the entire hand. debatable? Yes. But not nessecarily wrong. Some desicions could go differently depending on your read of the situation. But I think it was probably played pretty well. At least I probably would have played it very similarly (for whatever that is worth.... lol

)
PRE-FLOP:If you're read is correct, then the 3-bet/cap doesn't really mean AA or KK. Any if they play that poorly and many go too far post flop (plus you have position over all the action), then with the implied odds I don't have any problem with the call. In a more typical/tougher game (or out of possition), I would be bit more hesitent.
FLOP: I don't have any problem with it. Not excited about the two spades, but don't have any problem calling and intending to raise on the turn. I think it is probably the better play in this pot even with two spades out there. Your play/decisions on the flop are dictated by the fushdraw (we will not give any unrealisitic credit to someone flopping a fullhouse in this evaluation)
Let's just assume that one of your opponents DOES have the flush draw. So, you know what his two cards are (sort of), Spades. You know what your two cards(with a spade), and you know the flop. So he's got (8/45)+(8/44)=36% chance of hitting the flush on the turn. However, if he hits on the turn you also have the nut-flush and fullhouse redraw on the river (13/44=29.5%). With a total odds of that scenario being 5.25%. Will subtract that scenario from the possibility of him hitting the flush, making us a 2.25:1 favorite against the flush draw. Regardless of weither we raise or call the flop, he is getting the correct odds to continue. The only thing that changes how positive is EV is. Raising does lower is EV, but I don't really care about lowing his EV if I can't make it negative, I only care about increasing mine. I want to try to get as much money in the pot as possible. So, if I feel that I can get more money in the pot by raising the turn instead of the flop, that is the right move (and in this situation, I would say that is a safe assumption). So, I have no problem allowing the flush draw to see the turn for one bet instead of two if I think it will result in more money in the pot at the showdown. And if this is your feeling, this play is cemented by the fact that you can optimize your EV based on what the turn brings (raise a brick, call a very scary card... Q

,J

).
Turn: Again, not too much of a problem. I would have every intention of raising the turn as you said. However, with the raise, I would be a little worried about the CO possibility of hitting a fullhouse (but probably just slow playing a weaker set of Kings). However, with the bet, and raise, a re-raise, I would be a little worried about MP folding if I 3.bet. I don't want to drive him out when he'll call the raise, but maybe not the re-raise, and I could possibily get another bet out of him on the river (plus, I would rather keep him in the hand instead of committing 3-bets and driving him out when there is a possibility I could be behind CO. It will help my EV). You are probably a head the majority of the time, so raising is not bad either, but in raise you will loose more when you are behind than you will gain when you are ahead because the CO will often CAP when ahead but not very often when behind (and play similarly on the river). Still, I would probably 3-bet because I would think we are ahead more than 66% of the time.
I have more of a problem not capping after MP 3-bet, than I do the play after CO raised. Even if assume we may not even be ahead 66% of the time now, we still have a 20% chance to hit a better fullhouse on the river. And you know everyone is showing down now, so there is no fear of driving anyone out.
River I don't have too much of a problem with it. It now seems like MP may have had a weaker set of Kings (at best) all along (or was he betting KQ ll along and sucked out full house on the turn, a slim possibility)and CO had a the flush draw (or picked up a straight draw) and tried to make a move on the turn and missed the river. So, I think the river should probably be raised (especially when you consider MP coldcalled preflop... coldcall with QQ, AK, KQ? fairly passive prefop play from who you say is solid player). But with a fullhouse scare and all the action on the turn, don't have much of a problem only calling.
mikesong,
when I flop trips against aggressive players, I love to lead out from OOP hoping they raise and I can pull a little stop-and-go (occationally go for a check raise on the flop against good/observant players, just to switch it up and try to slow down their future flop-steal attempts... but only occuationally ~20%). And with position against aggressive players, I often call the flop, and raise the turn.
Otherwise, I typically let the texture of the flop and number of players in the hand dictate my play. Few players and an un-intimidating flop, I'll usually move on the turn for double the bet. Lots of players or an intimidating flop, I'll usually bet/raise the flop.
Don't know if it's right, but that is what I usaully do.
-- Also would love a detailed criteque to see how stupid I am. Thanks, all!