NWNewell
Tuesday, August 8th, 2006, 7:30 AM
QUOTE (Mitti (MFS) @ Monday, August 7th, 2006, 6:22 PM)

Why not check the Flop and bet the Turn? If they are on a draw they have the odds to call the bets on the Flop and the Turn. If you only bet the Turn they don't have the odds to call. The Flop is scary, so a free card is probably not so terrible.
We don't really care if they have odds to call or not. All you care about is increasing your EV, don't worry about theirs (especially in multiway pots... giving them poor odds to call means if they call they will be giving money away when they call, or you will win whats in the pot if they make the correct fold, this is true. But in a multiway pot this big, someone IS going to have proper odds to call, and you are probably not going to win without a showdown)
Worstcase drawing scinaro, someone has a flush draw, someone has a straight draw, AND aonther has a pair. In this worstcase scenario, you only have about a 15% chance to hold up by showdown. As played, you would have an EV of about +0.15BB. If you checked the flop instead your EV would probably be more like +0.35BB. In this case, checking is better, yes. But things will rarely be that grim.
Typically your chance of winning at showdown with this multiway flop is more like 35% (or better). And as played, you would have an EV of about +2.2BB. If you checked, you would end up with about the same EV. However, if your little plan to check the flop in hopes that the turn pot odds will cause someone to fold works, the fold will probably come from the person with a really poor draw or nothing at all(statisticaly speaking, the person who gives away the most money to you). And you just gave him a free card to try to catch. In this multiway pot, you are not goting to get everyone to fold with this ploy. So, you don't improve your win percentage much, but you will loose out on some bets and you will actually end up with a LOWER EV!!
Also, note that even if you bet the flop and are wrong and it is that grim, it is still not a loosing play. On average, betting your pair against a draw or two gives much better EV.
Furthermore, by only checking the flop you give up control of the hand making it a little more difficult to play the future streets.