jayvegas420
Wednesday, September 6th, 2006, 11:44 PM
QUOTE (Oneeydjaq @ Wednesday, September 6th, 2006, 4:50 PM)

The preseason rankings mean virtually nothing. The people with votes sit down at the beginning of the year and look at a teams schedule and decide if it is favorable or not, returning starters, team strength the year before, recruiting class etc are all factored in. Since the BCS was created, seldom has a team with one loss made the championship game and in all but 1 case, they did not win. So the question preseason is who is most likely to run the table.
For arguements sake, lets look at why the polls would choose a team like Ohio State over the field:
Lets say for arguments sake there are 10 teams that have a real chance at winning the national championship:
Ohio State - Will be replacing many players on defense, all but one key player on offense returns, possible losses at Texas, at Iowa, vs Mich, vs Penn St. Texas will have a QB with one game vs N Texas under his belt, by midseason for Iowa and Penn St. will outclass those opponents and new defense will no longer be new. Mich at home, rivalry game OSU has had the better of them in recent years especially at home.
Texas- Ohio State Week 2 with new QB. Winner of this game last year obv won the nat'l champ. Has an additional tough BIG12 champ game should they win the South.
Florida- Plays against tough competition in the SEC, has added difficulty of SEC champ game.
Notre Dame- first 4 games are unlikely to go unbeaten, USC looms in California. Lost to OSU in Fiesta bowl last year handily. They return a potent offense, defense much improved, Charlie Weis, etc.
USC- Loses 3 NFL caliber players on offense, new QB, Cal, ND.
Auburn- See Florida
LSU- See Florida
Florida State- Tough ACC to navigate, and program has been down over the past couple years.
West Virginia- Big East, Louisville(not so bad now), talented team, with little or no competition, should they go unbeaten along with 2 other teams, unlikely they make the BCS champ, and rightfully so, they play no one.
Michigan- ND, OSU, Mich St, Iowa, been underachievers of late.
All of this points to a favorable schedule for OSU against quality opponents that they will likely defeat. They will be underdogs in Texas, but not by much and favorites in the rest of their games. Voters give them the edge against Texas due to Texas young QB and the fact Vince Young won the game last year. The winner of the OSU Texas game will likely make the national championship. Should no one else go undefeated, is possible the loser makes the championship as well. Based on their conference strengths and the likelihood they will run the table.
Hence, OSU #1, ND#2, Texas #3, Auburn most likely to run table in SEC #4.
Basically whoever wins OSU Texas game is one piece of the puzzle. Barring any major upset.
If ND can win out, their schedule would give them the nod for the other spot.
If ND loses, then If Auburn runs the table they would get in.
If Auburn loses, USC gets in if they can beat ND and run table.
If all have 1 loss, is likely loser of OSU Texas game would get in with their only loss coming to the only undefeated team, setting up that rematch.
Bottom line, if there wasnt a preseason poll, 90% of America would have no idea who had a chance to win. There will be about 20 undefeated teams after 5 games. Then everyone of those teams would argue they deserve to be #1, and etc etc, when it is very possible teams like ND OSU or Texas with one loss SHOULD be ranked higher than 16-17 of those undefeated teams. There will never be a playoff system like everyone wants because of the revenue it would cost the bowls and their sponsors. Quit griping, watch the games cause you love it, hope and pray your team makes a run at it, and bi.tch n moan when they get snubbed for some team that probably is better than them gets in ahead of them.
They gotta change the playoff format.
I really don't think a 65 team bracket like basketball is all that unrealistic.
Why do you think that football programs stand to lose more money with that format?
Do the basketball programs generate less revenue during the National Tournament?