In my blog about playing at the WSOP Main Event I received a great deal of feedback about one particular hand, so I felt it appropriate to give a more complete report of my thinking. Feel free to weigh in with your thoughts/opinions. First, here are the pertinent players:

In Seat 1 we have a guy I like to call, “Super-Loose Regular Player with Scruffy Face.” He is an older gentleman and it’s clear to me he plays often, if not daily, and has a ton of experience. He is very loose aggressive (playing 60-80 percent of his hands) and loves to call all the way to the river with his draws, whatever the price. I would guess he plays a lot of limit hold ‘em. I look forward to picking up a hand and relieving him of some of those chips.

About every half hour a pro, whose name escapes me but I remember watching him at a WPT final table in either the Bahamas or Caribbean, comes to talk to “Super-Loose Regular Player” and they discuss how they’re doing. Later in the day, Humberto Brenes also comes by to see how he’s doing. SLRP may even be a pro, but I don’t recognize him.

(I later found out this player was Manelic “Manny” Minaya. He is not a pro, but has played poker for 30 years and cashed in 6 WPT and WSOP events in the last two years, including NL Hold ‘em, Omaha and Omaha Hi/Lo.)

In Seat 4 we have, “Young Gun” who right now is playing tight aggressive, but he clearly has more bullets in his arsenal. Out of all the players he is the only one I think has the skill and discipline to cash in the tournament. He is smart, is making good reads, and is also making small moves to take pots away from people where he can.

In Seat 8 is me. So far I have been playing tight aggressive.

Near the end of level one, a loose player limps in and Manny makes it 150 to go in early position. “Young Gun” re-raises to 650 from middle position. This is only the 2nd or 3rd pot Young Gun has willingly come into since play began and the first pot he has ever re-raised preflop. Until now, he has been making small jabs at pots and letting it go if he’s re-raised without having the best of it.

The action gets to me and I look down at pocket aces (AdAc). So much for not playing big pots early on. I make it 1,500 to go thinking this will definitely push Manny out of the pot and Young Gun may fold or may call. I’m guessing he will probably call, and that’s okay with me since I have the best of it and I will then have a chance to get all of his chips rather than just what’s already in the middle.

In retrospect, perhaps I should have raised bigger preflop to push Young Gun out of the pot (or even gone all in as he definitely would have folded anything other than aces or kings, and maybe even kings) Though, I didn’t see the need to risk all my chips here, even with the best of it.

As expected, Manny folds. Young Gun calls. At this point, I’m pretty sure he knows I have aces or kings. There is a slight possibility he might put me on AK or QQ as well, but definitely nothing else.

I also put him on AA, KK or AK, leaning heavily toward KK or AA. For arguments sake, it’s possible he might have another pocket pair and be looking to trap me on the flop if he flops a set. Also, for arguments sake, let’s say he could even have any other two cards and see what develops.

The flop comes Kd-4d-6c. Young Gun checks to me and I bet 2,000. He thinks for a second then re-raises all in. He has me covered, but only by about 1k.

Okay, now it’s time to start eliminating his possible holdings. First off, there is no way he could have complete junk because this move would be suicide, since I’ve represented so much strength preflop (this is the first time I have re-raised preflop as well, let alone putting in the third raise).

Secondly, he now must have either AA, KK or AK. He would not put all his chips in against someone he knows to have either AA, KK or AK without a hand he believes can win. The only way he could put all his chips in here without one of those three hands is if he believes I will fold all of those three hands. There is nothing that would indicate that I would fold any of those hands to his all in.

If he has AK and puts me on AK, this move is a good one. It may push me off of my hand and he gets all the chips instead of having to split the pot with me.

However, since it is just as likely that I have AA or KK, rather than AK, he has risked everything betting that I have AK when there is no way he could know that for certain. And that is not his style. At no other time in the tournament, either before or after this hand, did Young Gun go all in. Ever.

If he went all in here with AK to push me off my hand, he is essentially bluffing. And that is something I don’t believe he would ever do in Round 1 for all of his chips. He has been playing small pots whenever possible, trying to slowly build his stack. He is clearly not willing to risk his whole stack on a marginal situation. If, for arguments sake, he puts me on any other hand (like QQ or JJ) then he has lost money by making this play. If I have AA, he has no read that says I would fold a monster here, so he would clearly be making an error. If I have KK he gets called in a second and is practically out of the tournament.

Again, if he has AK, since he must put me on AA, KK or AK this move is -EV. If I have AA or KK he would expect me to call, therefore he only gets a call if he’s beat, and he’d be in terrible shape. If we both have AK and he pushed me out, it all works out well for him, but why risk everything for half a pot? It doesn’t make sense for a player like Young Gun.

If he has AA and puts me on AK this move is a bad one as he loses value. He has me beat and could likely get more chips out of me by just calling here. This move would be okay if he was certain I had AK (rather than AA or KK) and he was certain I would call an all in bet here with AK, but there is no way he could know any of those things for certain an hour and a half into the tournament.

Also, if he has AA and really believes I couldn’t have KK, then why put me all in here? If I have AK, why not string me along to get more out of me, as is more his style. The only way that makes sense is if he has AA and believes I have the other two aces. Then this move has value if he believes there is any chance I will fold my AA, but there is no indication that I would fold aces on this flop. Again this would be a huge gamble as it’s even more likely I have KK if he has two aces.

Now, if he has KK, this move makes perfect sense to me. He has put me on AA, KK or AK preflop. Since he has KK and there is a K on the flop there is obviously no way I could have KK. It is also much less likely that I have AK, but it’s still possible. The most likely scenario is that I have AA and he has me drawing virtually dead. If he check-raises all in here, he would certainly expect me to call with AA on that kind of board. He is risking his whole stack for the first and only time, but only because he has the nuts.

This is why I thought for a long time, then mucked my hand. He looked surprised. I asked him what he had, but he wouldn’t tell me.

As the tournament went on Young Gun never once put in a re-raise preflop with a hand like AK or a pocket pair under KK or AA. So, this hand was either my greatest laydown of the tournament or the dumbest move in history. I guess I’ll never know for sure.

One other thing worth mentioning is that if I called and he flipped up KK, my tournament is over. Even if I folded and was pushed off of the best hand, I still had plenty of chips to play with. At this kind of table, there are plenty of easier opponents to get chips from, taking much smaller risks.

Feel free to weigh in.

Read your posts in General - really enjoyed them.

Only question I have is what were the starting stack sizes for yourself and young gun when this hand started?

You said late in the first level but I didn't want to assume that you both had around 10K

you blog it and now you post it here?

maybe I'm just irritable

I'll get around to reading when I have time.

did you win?

cfinn wrote a full WSOP ME report in another post. this post only deals with a particular hand in greater detail. both are great reads.

Excellent breakdown Carol. Seriously a very tuff hand there.

I do agree that a much more powerful move preflop was your only other better choice here, but even then, you'd be out against KK.

Very tuff spot. I'd prolly have called but I'm Nutz that way!

GG finnnn! Sorry it didn't go better. I feel your pain...still....

oh.



yeah..I got the hint early on that this was a welcomed , albeit long, post.
So ,my apologies. No blood no foul

Tough spot. Hes got AA (1), KK (3), or AK(6). I cant see him having any less than those. He probably puts you on those or QQ.

From his vantage point, if he has AA he sees the same 1,3,6 you do plus 6 QQs
if he has KK he sees you with 6,0,4,6
if he has AK he sees you with 3,3,9,6

With AA he splits with 1, loses to 3 and wins with 6 and 6. He also has to think you will fold with AK or QQ, so I dont see him pushing with AA against those. Based on that and the low a priori probability, I dont think hes got AA.

If he has KK I can easily see him pushing. Hes not giving you a cheap flop no matter what, and you can fold AK or QQ to any decent bet, so why not push on the hope youve got the AA, some 40% of the time.

If he has AK hes losing to 6 and probably not pushing either out, and probably doesnt push against 15 of them. So I discount AK pretty heavily.

That puts you at best on a toss up between KK and AK, and I lean toward him having the KK and folding. I think his surprise is because after you go into the tank you almost certainly have AA...KK is an autocall and AK, QQ dont take that much thought. So hes surprised at your great laydown.

I fold this after much thought but no regret in the ME. In a lower buyin tourney I probably still fold it after much thought..but with some self-doubt.

What if he popped it to 4500ish?


If I'm in his shoes, I'm probably putting you on the hands you speak...and therefore, the last thing I'm worried about is a flush draw.

So, with KK, I could lean towards a raise in the 4500-5000 area.

And what would you have done if he had just called your 2k bet, assuming no ace hits the turn.

Ugh, this is a very tough hand, and one that I'll come out of my tourney-strat hiatus to post on.

I think your reraise preflop is fine. No problems so far.

Once the flop comes down is where I no longer like your play. You are certain based on the preflop action that he has either aces, kings, or AK. (you both say you're sure, and you fold aces on the flop, so clearly you go with your reads).

If you are certain that he has one of these hands, why on earth are you betting out 2k on the flop? Lets see his possible actions based on his plausible holdings:

AA- he definitely has to jam here, since he has nowhere near enough information about your hand to fold.

KK- he could slowplay or he could jam.

AK - definitely a jam - he didn't call you preflop with AK only to fold when he hit one of the best possible flops for AK.

So, basically with any of his reasonable holdings, he's going to respond to your raise the same way, especially since you made a pretty weak bet on the flop.

If you're going to fold AA here, I'd like to know why you thought that you should bet 2k?

As to whether or not you should fold it there...eh. I think he probably had it. But you also invested 40% of your stack in the hand already and he could be in bad shape with AK or tied with AA.

i already stated before.

I feel strongly about this hand being AK.

who the F.. puts someone on AA but then calls anyways??






No one thinks like this in the first few levels during their 1st time in a WSOP.

Great way to break it down, but He's not smart enough to think about her not having AK or QQ and making an easy fold. AK doesnt make an easy fold here.
Some people are uber agressive with TPTK early in MTT's.
which is why u always see No names leading by a ridiculous amount early.

No one? OPs read is that Young Gun has got some skills, I dont think you can dismiss him as dead money.

And early in a tourney is exactly when you dont get involved in a big pot with TPTK (or most overpairs).

Im not saying this a laydown is definitely right even after all the analysis, but Id err on the side of caution..more so in the Me than in another tourney, not less.

there is a difference here.

young gun (which is it) either has skill, or is TAG or has been getting complete trash and we have yet to see what type of player he is.

young gun doesnt know where he is in the hand preflop without a re-raise. if he puts her on aces, is he now calling 900 more to flop a set??

doesnt sound like he is very skilled at all.

Is he TAG? maybe calling with AA cuz he's worried and nervous, and see's the safe board and puts her on AK and pushes.

or is he the average player who has been getting trash and see's AK raises, gets re-raised. is nervous about folding cuz its the WSOP., calls.,
hits his perfect hand., or what he imagined would be perfect for him
Not even putting her on Aces. and sees her weak lead out and decides t opush.

i dunno. i wasnt there.

But i have trouble believing KK calls preflop and pushes the flop. doesnt make any sense what so ever.

Why are you assuming he puts her on AA?

He HOPES shes got AA once he flops the set, because thats the only hand hes likely to make a lot of chips on with a K on the board. Preflop I still think he gives her a range of QQ+, AK.

Good fold IMO.

because her new post has been adjusted

here is a clipping from her Original

A while later, near the end of level one, “Loose Regular who Enjoys Sulking” limps in and “Super-Loose Regular Player makes it 150 to go in early position. “Young Gun” re-raises to 650. This is only the 2nd or 3rd pot Young Gun has come into since play began. I look down at pocket aces. So much for not playing big pots early on. I make it 1,500 to go. This pushes Super-Loose Regular Player out of the pot. Young Gun calls. At this point, I’m pretty sure he knows I have aces. The third preflop raise always means aces.

Royal Tour's explanation is extremely plausible, especially since that is exactly how most interenet players would play it (and lets face it, most of the guys there are internet qualifiers). These people aren't thinking how good is my hand relative to what the action is. These people ask themselves: is my hand good or bad? and clearly the answer is that AK is good. You can not convince me that after one level of play you can feel very confident that he wouldn't call a reraise with AK.

Like I said before, yes, its possible that villain has KK. It's also very possible that they have AA or AK (Cfinn's bets could easily be QQ or JJ). You've already put 4k into the pot. It's obviously not the ideal situation, but I wouldn't feel bad getting the rest of my money in the pot here.

If I had seen that I would have said "wtf, if he puts you on AAs why would he call preflop". The whole hand makes no sense if he put her on AA so I dont buy that.

Even if he feels like she has aces preflop, he could be following the widely held doctrine of never folding kings, then once the flop comes down knowing that he'll probably get a call from AA or AK and he wouldn't get any more money from QQ down anyway.

"feels like she has Aces" still implies a range of hands. If anyone is follwoing a doctrine of "never folding Ks even if youre sure youre up against As" Id love to play against them!

I had about 9k, he had just over 10k.


I thought about checking the flop, but didn't because I knew if I did that he'd bet the turn no matter what he had and then I'd be in no man's land, maybe for all of my chips.


If he was an Internet qualifier, there was no indication of it. He was very calm, handled his chips well and wore no gear from any websites.

All of your replies have been very interesting so far...

Royal, the young gun was price in to call 850 into a 2400 pot preflop, so he should call with any pocket pair even knowing cfinnn has AA or KK. I said it before, I think you made the right fold here cfinn and it was just bad luck that flop came. Of course, knowing that you had AA, he could've also known that by moving all-in KK would be the obvious hand you'd think of, so there's a small chance it was a bluff with JJ or QQ or some other garbage postflop hand. However, this is pretty unlikely for him to know after 90 minutes.

any pocket pair even knowing OP has AA or KK? I dont think so. If it goes all the way to the river the underpair is a 4:1 dog, and a 7.5:1 dog to hit it on the flop, and further bets are almost certain.

what implied odds would you give though.
Heroes preflop action indicates we'll get paid off when our set comes.

thanks.

Copernicus is correct.

but lets say for a moment you are right that he has a PP.
what PP do we re-raise with preflop, and call a 3rd raise with thats on that board?
66/?? 44?? KK?? but thats what we're arguing, I've eliminated KK from his hands and thats why I call


And on your last little bit, I dont think it was a bluff.
i think strongly that he had AK, he saw a weak 2k bet into that pot and he pushed.
I honestly think he was scared to see anymore cards.

Okay, here's my thought. If the villain in this hand really put you on AA, why is he check-raising? Wouldn't he just lead into you and represent AK? The check-raise gives away the strength to a thinking player.

It certainly seems like AK that put you on QQ, but I admire the fortitude to lay that hand down.

The implied odds are pretty bad for lower pair vs higher pair...though im not sure how many non-actuary's really understand a rough implied odds calculation:

At the time he has to call 850 there is 2375 in the pot.

Flop comes and 88% of the time he misses, so we have to count 88% of the next bet as potential cost. Lets assume the AA will bet 2000...about 2/3 of the pot and pricing out any immediate draws. So theres an average cost for that bet of 1760.

Turn comes and 92% of the time it misses. There is 7225 in the pot. Lets say AA is timid and doesnt go all in, but only bets 3000, which still prices out most draws. The implied cost of that bet is .88*.92*3000 or about 2400.

Theres no implied cost for the river because we arent playing if we havent hit.

So the total implied cost is 850+1760+2400.....call it 5000. The total we win is 2375 in the pot plus the rest of AA's stack, or 7500. So we are getting implied odds of 9875/5000 or less than 2:1 for a 4:1 shot.

(BTW this shows how bad it really is to slow play AA on the flop. If the flop is checked and all the money still gets in, the implied cost for the lower pair is 850+2000*.88*.92, or around 2450. Now the implied odds are 9875/2450, which right around the 4:1 he needed preflop.)

Hes not concerned with hiding his strength. He thinks (rightly so) hes almost always going to get a call from AA whether he bets out or checkraises. If he bets out with a believable amount of around 1/2 the pot, AA is probably going to just call, content to let him carry the lead on the turn and bet again. Now if a diamond falls or a card that AA can fear is either two pair or pair + a straight draw giving 13 outs and odds he cant price out by much. So there is a decent chance he loses his market for the turn bet.

If he checks AA cant give a free card to 2 diamonds on the board, and will bet, and now when he pounces the AA has even better calling odds and is far more likely to get a call then if the lower pair open pushed.

Dude,

we're folding the flop w/o a set here
So we call 850 and need to make, what 10x to take the redraws into consideration..or chance of set over set...

so stacks is all I need to know

right?

It depends on how confident he is that he can get all the money in when he hits it on the flop. He cant push on the flop or hes going to lose his market a decent amount of the time, and if he milks it he can lose his market on the turn and/or river. He needs to expect around 4000 out of the AA's 7500 stack to have set or fold odds, and against good players thats far from assured.

If I'm at the first level of the WSOP and think my opponent has aces, I fully expect to be able to get 100% of their stack if I hit a set, short of a 3-straight,3-flush board.

Tough One - you've put almost 40% of your stack into the pot so villain probably sees you as pot committed. Your read of villain is that he is a good sharp player so he is probably putting you on a hand of AA-QQ/AK.

I actually think that villain could have also played 44 or 66 as he probably figures that he can get your stack if he flops the set. It's 850 more preflop to potentially get 9K so he's got the implied odds. I see that Coper doesn't think so but that's how I'd think about it.

The jam feels like a set - play it fast especially since he's pretty sure that the you got a big piece of the flop or you have AA and that you will call him.

Now your read has a lot to do with my play. In a huge tournament like this with many "internet" players, I could seem many of them overplaying TPTK as they try to accumulate a big stack. Young Gun doesn't sound like he is a donkey; knows that you are pot committed and jams. I think he had you.

i wasn't even in the hand its driving me nuts not knowing if you were beat cfinnn lol. The important thing is you had the guts to follow your read and that is awesome regardless of what he really held. That takes some big heart to muck there.

i would have asked him if he played online. If he said yes id probably have to call lol.

So since when do we eliminate KK from Cfinns hand if we're the "young Gun"??

is 2/3rd the Pot too much with top set and two hearts on board?

The check raise all in is stupid.
You dont check raise someone unless you want them to bluff at it to get extra chips, or you know they're goin to pay you off or you yourself are bluffing.

If young gun put her on aces, rather than AA - QQ,and AK AQ(for donks) than CFinn, No offence, but stick to online poker.

I think this is probably a good fold

My question is what happens if the K on the flop is a Q and villian makes the same play??? Its a call right???

If you're gonna do what happens...

then here; i raise more preflop. and if I get a caller, I bet out more than 2/3 on the flop.

It really depends on your competition and what theyve done, read, how they got to the ME etc. Eg. Edog calls AA the most overplayed hand in poker, and several of the pros Ive talked to agree. If the AA is held by someone whos had the same discussion, then you really dont expect to pick up all their chips all of the time.

Re the Q question, I think it makes this an easier call, since I would greatly discount the pre-flop call for Qs and a check raise is even more dangerous. If it were a Q instead of a K Im thinking semibluff with a pair of Qs and 4 diamonds.