I hear too often

" That bet is only getting called if he's beat "


I'll leave it open for any discussion and not ty to steer it, yet

1) i don't give good advice at the table and so it is a pet peeve of mine as well.

2) however in anlysis it serves its purpose well i think.

ex: on a board of 10JK2A where no one has shown interest a woman bets, everyone folds and she shows A6. someone says, "that bet is only getting called when it's beat."

the analysis by the other player was correct, but if a woman is this bad why should anyone steer her towards correct decisions.

there is a difference between value betting, bluffing, and donk betting. to use the term in analysis is to differentiate (more or less) between the 3.

Depends on the context...myself, I only try to make that statement pertaining to bets on the river, where you have no redraws.

On the river you have two reasons to bet:

1. value
2. steal

and a third hybrid of the two is a blocker/defensive bet.


So, I make the statement when there is no chance to steal - ie. every hand that beats you is going to call - and there is no perceived value - ie. every hand you beat folds.

As far as the "call" portion...it really mostly pertains to an all-in on the river, especially an overbet.

In reality, a hand that beats you will raise you most times (unless he feels that he only gets called by a hand that beats him).

at the time I wrote that, I think I was considering all the times my friends or announcers will say it, when in fact, bettor doesn't want a call.

A steal or semi bluff.

Huge overbets that are uncallable by most hands that beat you and you just hope they don't have a monster..

People say it as if we are betting for value though, and that's where I"m like "duh, but we dont' want a call"

I think Actuary means he hears it too often from people giving advice here (possibly related to a previous thread today?). At the table, it's annoying obviously.

If I understand what Actuary is implying, I think he means a lot of people are too afraid to value bet their hand on the river, worried that they're only called if they're beat, whereas he thinks people will call down with worse hands.

Honestly, I think it often comes down to reads. There are people I play against in real life, that I play with so much I know there's no reason to raise a bet of theirs on the river. Online, however, if you've seen a tendency for someone to call river raises with hands you can beat, then there's certainly a reason to make those sort of plays.

This I agree with - Sexton says it all the time...and yes, there are times you don't want a call, but you hope a better hand will fold. And like you said, when you make a huge overbet, unless the guy is really ballsy with his Jack high, you're usually taking the pot from anything but a monster.

I personally only say it when (I believe) that no better hand will fold.