i believe that's what i read...he said that he thinks he can get a bigger edge later in the tourney...

i know this AA 1st hand thing has been posted here before, but now that he says he would lay it down i am wondering if the call is as automatic as everyone thinks.

I assume that he is discussing the Main Event and its incredibly slow structure. First, I still get it all-in there. Second, I really doubt that Fishman folds AA pf first hand in any tournament other than the ME.

Greg Raymer, Paul Phillips and others are on the record for never folding AA in this situation.

The only situation I have seen where a recognized expert advises folding AA pre-flop is if you are on the bubble in a tourny that pays equally for those "in the money" (i.e. a satellite where top 3 all get into the next level). Before the action gets to you, 2 or 3 short stacks are all-in, so you fold expecting 1 or more of the shorties to bust ensuring you get the prize.

Fischman is a professional. He makes his bread and butter by exploiting the advantages he has over weaker players later in the tournament. Although mathematically he's a favorite with this hand pre-flop, if 3-4 opponents come in his chances of scooping are drastically reduced. That being said, I'm all in every time..but I can see why a pro can lay it down.

Fischman is not good enough to lay down AA preflop.

More than you may want to read on this topic....

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...part=1&vc=1

With links to lots of other pages.

Net/net: no one should ever fold AA in a normal tournament situation.

That does not say that some people may actually do it...

Actually, if I recall correctly, Fischman simply said that he could conceive of situations where he would fold AA pf on the first hand of the tournament.

He never implied he always would, or even, on any level, how often he would.

It comes down to edge...what edge you got, vs. what edge you want to have vs. what edge you think you can develop later in the tourney.



Matros says in his article he can see an argument for going all-in pf on the first hand even when your edge is slightly under 50%...it's basically related to how often you double up in tournaments...if you double up in tournaments only 40% of the time, then taking a 50% chance to double up on the first hand can be a no brainer to some.


As far as Fischman - one situation would be the unusual scenario where all 9 other players go all-in preflop on the first hand of a freezout....where your AA is only a 35% favourite (if that)....in the BB, I can see myself folding (in a tournament), and this is the type of scenario Fischman is thinking of (though not necessarily this exact one).

Really, for example, in the ME - does the 65% chance of losing get overridden by the immediate jump to 100k chips vs everyone else's 10k? Remembering that a first-day leader has never won the main event.

Whereas a pro like Cloutier is on record that he would go all-in every time in every tournament...you have the best hand, period.

Read this.

Oh, and the thing about 'the 1st day leader never winning so it's bad to be the day 1 leader' is one of the stupidest arguments I have ever heard.




Paul Phillips quotes:

"You were just seated at a table with apparently the nine worst players in the world, and eight of them are going broke THIS HAND, and you had the BEST POSSIBLE HAND, and you folded it. Good luck getting a better opportunity"

"If your goal is just to last a while in the tournament and get some fun value out of it, then go ahead and fold AA. If goal is to win money, you will never be correct in folding AA preflop on the first hand. Nobody is so good they can pass that up. Nobody is even *close* to so good that they can pass that up. Nobody."

"The exceptions where you might fold are pathological corner cases that exist almost completely for academic navel-gazing, and only apply when one is very close to a dramatic leap in prize money status, such as in a super satellite. The situations proposed in this thread are not even close. 31% of 10x your stack is a LOT OF CHIPS. Assuming a starting stack of 1000, you are suggesting throwing away *2100* chips just because you can't handle the prospect of busting. This is insane.
It's not even close."

"let's say poker has been outlawed worldwide and they're letting us play one last tournament. After this one the penalty for playing poker will be a horrible death, burned alive on a bonfire. Guess what? YOU STILL CALL! And it's still not even close."

"The chip leader often figures not to win because being the chip leader on the first day IN REAL LIFE usually means taking the worst of it a few times and getting lucky. Putting all your money in as a huge favorite in a ten-handed pot is NOT how people typically end up as chip leader at the end of day one."

"I'll give you a clearly false example: I raise all-in UTG in an eight handed live game. One by one, everyone calls my raise. Which person did I want not to call, so I could narrow the field? Answer: none of them. I want them all to call. I did not raise to "chase them out." I raised to take their money."


>Complicating matters is the fact that the early stages of a tourney are more about survival than increasing the size of your stack.

"This is clearly false as well. The EARLY stages of a tourney are precisely those that are NOT about survival; they are about making the plays with positive expectation. Survival is only a factor in and of itself when enough people have been eliminated to change the relative value of chips in a material way."

Actually, what's really stupid is people with double-digit IQ's that can't read a statement that's right in front of them in black and white and understand it for what it is, but instead completely misquote and misrepresent it immediately.

Nowhere did I say that being the first day leader is bad....nowhere...you find it and I'll suck my own ****....look for it...it's not there...the assertion exists only in your diseased mind.

The point is simple...if your goal is to win, you don't need to be an early chipleader to do it.

You've taken an extremely straightforward post and proven to the world that you can't grasp English as a first, second or third language.

It shocks me that you've actually figured out how to use the Internet at all, and that you didn't terminally injure yourself simply registering for this site.

Yes.

Not close

Why is this topic still being discussed?

Folding aces is ****ing retarded.

[/thread]

actually as long as I would still be in great position, i would call if I had them all covered by a wide margain

cause odds are, alll 3 wont outdraw me

Hmm. One of the more angry flames I have come across, but overall I'd give it a B+ because there's real emotion that shows through.



Your actual quote of

"Remembering that a first-day leader has never won the main event."

suggests that this statistic has some relevance. The context suggests it is not particularly advantageous be in such a position, which is quite plainly false. If you were to read the thread I directed you to, you would realise that your opinion is wrong in every aspect.

2 Points simo_8ball, Reversal.

****

haha how in the world did a flame post end up in a thread w/ the most trivial, pointless question I've read in a while? Too funny

Thank you...I will continue to practice until I achieve an A+.

Actually, what my statement simply reflects is that it is not NECESSARY to be in such a position...nowhere do I say, suggest, think or imply that being an early chipleader is not advantageous (or, worse, as you implied I said, a disadvantage)...my observation simply shows that it is not necessary....and the facts over hundreds of poker tournaments prove it.

And when something is not inherently required, I question the desire to achieve that something where not achieving it, 2/3 of the time, means you lose everything....and the other 1/3 of the time you do achieve it you still lose everything a percentage of the time.

And, frankly, Paul Phillips doesn't exactly ride high in my list of "pros" whose opinions I respect or value...let me know when Shannon Elizabeth has an opinion here too and we can really start scraping the bottom.

If you would also notice my original post, I actually posted BOTH sides of the issue - I clearly state TJ Cloutier's opinion on the all-in AA situation, and I give his farts more weight than anything Paul Phillips might say. So, if you'll notice, I posted a situation where I can SEE someone folding, and I posted the opinion of a successful pro that disagrees with that...so I didn't really need you to link to thread written by a dotcom millionnaire who thinks he's a poker player to get an opposing viewpoint.


Over the last 15 months I have finished in the money of roughly half the live NLHE tourneys I've entered, ranging from $20 rebuys to $1500 freezeouts (most being in the $50 fo range)...and half of those I've finished in the top 5.

So why would I risk my tournament life for a 30% shot for an advantage I don't really need to achieve the results I've been achieving?

those are some awesome results.

From Fischman's Online Ace:

"I'm occasionally asked if I will ever fold pocket aces before the flop. My answer is yes - in multi-table satellites. If there are 11 players fighting it out for 10 spots and I've got even an average-size stack, pocket aces is the last hand I need to see. If someone with more chips than I have pushes all-in before the flop, I'll pretend I was dealt two blank pieces of paper, or that I was in the bathroom, or anything else I can think of to trick my mind into folding the hand. Why risk all of my money in a situation where I have an 80 percent change of winning - in other words, a 20 percent chance of losing - when I am probably close to a 100 percent chance that someone else will bust out in the next two or three orbits around the table?"

"When I travel to a casino for a tournament, I'm looking to win of course, but I'll also consider my entertainment value - poker's not all work, you know. I'm not likely to go all-in on the first or second hand (or the 20th or 30th hand, for that matter) unless I'm holding the nuts or something close to it."

This implies to me that he does not advocate folding AA pre-flop in normal MTTs.

Scott Fischman on May 23, 2006 from In The Tank.

My suggestion is to stick to either cash games or tournaments at one time, as each requires different skill sets. If you are doing well in cash games, keep playing those. When things begin to shift, go back to tournaments and sit-n-gos and make a conscious effort to notice what changes you need to make to your game to be successful. The transition between cash games and tournaments is in your strategy as well as in your mindset. For example, I am perfectly willing to lay down pocket aces in the first hand of a major tournament, which I would never do in a cash game, because the value of my remaining in the tournament is much greater than the possibility of being eliminated. You can afford to take a lot more risks in cash games, because you can always rebuy, which also allows you the chance to win a lot more. However, you cannot successfully use the same strategy in tournament play.

Emphasis added - this would imply that he is not talking about a satellite.

Probably not - just clarifying what he said.


His "willingness" to fold AA is a far cry from "will not play AA" as was implied by the original poster.


As my "willingness" to fold AA is likely a far cry from what I'd actually do if presented with the situation in real life.

False. You are an idiot

you think Shpaget is misrepresenting?
really?

what is your basis?

I'm curious about this myself.

I can't believe you equated Shannon Elizabeth to Paul Phillips. I can't believe you think TJ is in another world than Paul Phillips. Paul Phillips knows the game of poker very well, his argument is awesome and correct.

I love when Actuary quotes his own post for emphasis.

I dont buy it for a minute unless its an extremely small sample size and very small MTTs. Finishing ITM of half of the SnGs you enter is a solid stat...MTTs? I call BS.

If its true write a book, because youre one of the best in the world AND on an amazing run. You can live off the profits from the book when the amazing run stops.

Edit: I get it....you were using a hypothetical "I" who achieves those results and pointing out that such a person might fold AA. My bad.

No, the numbers are true.

And no, I'm not one of the best in the world, nor my city, and probably not these forums.

Yes, I am on an amazing run, but I'd like to think it's not all luck....it's probably more my competition's lack of skill rather than my own abundance of it.

The sample size is roughly 50 tournaments, ranging from 12 to 240 people....most being in the 50-70 range.

I also clearly stated live, because by my own admission my online numbers aren't nearly as compelling for online MTTs (I'm about half itm for sng's), because by my own admission I'm on online donkey and tend to lose focus and stop paying attention and start surfing sites like this when I should be looking at my table.

And though I'd like to think I could fold AA there, I probably wouldn't.

If youre in Alberta tell me where you play, Id love to pay for my vacation in Calgary in some of these soft tourneys.

this is the quote i read...

http://www.cashpoker.ca/

Have at'er.


Though if I play like I did last night my numbers will come back to Earth.

Primed to take chip lead with less than 20 players left and made the biggest bonehead move ever...pissed away what could have been $1100.

Simply by losing focus.

Stay focused and keep your head out of your *** and you'll have a profitable vacation. Lots of oil guys with too much money.


There are four other poker rooms in Calgary that are no different - a few in Edmonton too.

Thanks for the link..I'll definitely make a couple of the 7:30s. The 8/7 holiday thing looks interesting too. Do these sell out? Do you need to register well in advance?

Do you play there often?

It is better to register in advance for the holiday tourney...you just need to fork out the $11 up front....


They do normally sell out, or close to it. (the nightly, and the holiday ones)...who knows, you may be able to show up on the day of and get in.

I play them when I can, but most holidays I'm busy - in the summer I'm doing other things on holiday weekends though, so I won't be at this Monday's tourney.

As far as the nightly ones...just phone ahead of time on the day of the tourney and you can reserve a spot, no payment up front necessary. I try to play those once a week. I always call ahead, and there's always a waiting list for last minute stragglers, but they almost always get in.

FYI - 7:30 tourneys are 3000 chips, 25/50 to start, 15 minute blinds...no breaks....the $1/$2 NL tables fill up as people bust out of the tourneys.

Not sure what the chip format will be for the holiday freezeout.

When are you in town?

We get in Thursday night, golf in Banff Friday, then Sat I drop my son of in Airdrie for the week. I can probably drag him over there on Friday night to pre-register for the holiday tourney.

Whats the gambling age there? Can he play at 18?

Yes, he can play at 18.

I prefer golfing Kananaskis myself, but hopefully the new shepherd Banff Springs has hired can control the elk, and their droppings....nice course otherwise.

What the hell is in Airdrie?


Enjoy.

A goalie camp at the "Sports Complex" I think they call it, though its just twin rinks behind the Wendys/across from the Tim Hortons right off the highway. Top goalie camp in North America, run by the Canucks goaltending coach, with several NHL goalies who usually stop in to play/instruct, and an otherwise top flight staff.

thanks for the tip on Kananaskis, I may check that out if I dont wreck my back at Banff

Don't know if you're reading this, Cop, but last minute change of plans has me home this weekend so I am going to play that $100 freezout on Monday...hope to see you there.